Hojlund has made a fast start to life in Naples, but the bookies don’t seem to have caught on yet, and continue to offer pretty generous odds in the shots on target market.

So far, the forward has averaged 1.2 shots on target per 90, albeit in only two appearances. He tends to make way for Lorenzo Lucca around the 75th minute, which acts as a further benefit, given Lucca’s rate of 1.45 shots on target per game, which will be partly aided by playing against tired legs.

Given Conté’s rivalry with Massimiliano Allegri, we’re likely to see Napoli emphasise their attack, as they aim to break down Milan’s well drilled defence, and I think their forwards should get chances.

Backing Pulisic to test the Napoli keeper looks to be of excellent value, as evidenced by the US international’s average of 2.36 shots on target per game this season.

Pulisic’s confidence will be sky-high, having bagged three goals and an assist over his last two games, despite coming off the bench in the second of those, and combining for only 92 minutes across them both.

Napoli have conceded 20 shots on target in just five games so far, including six last time out against newly-promoted Pisa.

Four of Napoli’s five matches to date have seen the net ripple at least twice, and I expect this derby to be no different. Their league games have produced an average of three goals per game, with their most recent clash against Pisa ending 3-2. 

Similarly, Milan’s four matches have seen this selection come home on three occasions; meanwhile, they boasted a hit rate of 82% last season - around 5% more than the bookies' odds imply.

This line landed in both head-to-head meetings between Milan and Napoli last season, with those games ending 2-0 and 2-1.

Backing Milan to force the league leaders' glovesman into at least two saves looks to be a neat pick, having already come home in three of Napoli’s four matches in Serie A. That’s despite a relatively easy run of fixtures; in fact, Napoli’s opponents have combined for just 13 points in 16 games.

Across Napoli’s last two games, they’ve been forced to produce a remarkable 10 saves: six against Man City and then four v newly-promoted Pisa.

As for Milan, their opponents have had to pull out at least two stops in each of their four league games, totalling 13 so far. They brought this selection home in 31 out of 38 games last season, including both games v Napoli.

Given Milan and Napoli’s strengths, I can easily see both finding a way onto the scoresheet. Last time the teams net, fans were treated to a 2-1 Napoli win, although Milan’s 2.61 xG would suggest we could’ve seen more goals.

BTTS landed in Napoli’s last two matches, which saw them score a combined six goals, but concede three at the other end too. Milan are yet to face a serious test, but given how strong Napoli look going forward this season, I can’t see them keeping a clean sheet.

Despite limited gametime, Pulisic has managed to bag five goals and an assist in just 285 minutes of football this season - an average of almost two goal contributions per game. The chances he’s receiving underline the value on offer here, with Pulisic boasting one expected goal contribution per 90 across all competitions.

Last season, over 2000+ league minutes, Pulisic maintained an average of 0.4 goals and 0.33 assists per 90.

As mentioned before, Napoli’s defence has not looked watertight, and having conceded five across their last two games, Milan are unlikely to be starved of chances.

Neither Napoli nor Milan’s matches have been too card-intensive this season, which is why I much prefer this angle to anything involving overs. Milan’s matches have averaged just 3.25 cards per game, and Napoli - a mere 2.4.

Still, the distribution of the cards produced in Milan’s matches is very promising: their opponents have averaged 2.25 per game, compared to the Rossoneri’s 1.0, and have also averaged 2.25 more fouls committed than Milan themselves have returned. This line has landed in three of Milan’s four games to date.

Despite Napoli having only once drawn more fouls than they committed this season, the Azzurri have only received more cards than their opposition in two of their five games. Still, Napoli have committed the 6th-most fouls in the league, and Milan are set to be their trickiest opposition yet.