Before AC Milan play host to Napoli on Tuesday, one statistic stands out the most. Six of the last nine meetings between the two have finished with under 2.5 goals and with the way both team’s defences are performing this season, it could be another game where goals are largely at a premium.

The hosts have only conceded an average of 1.12 goals per league game this season, the visitors even less at 0.56 and although their respective attacking ability have to be taken into consideration as well, the extra margin that comes in backing under 3.5 goals at the San Siro should be enough to cover it.

After leading the line in both the recent home wins against Udinese and Club Brugge, Alvaro Morata is expected to do the same against Lazio on Tuesday. The Spanish international has only made four league starts this season but has managed to score twice since the start of the new Serie A campaign.

Two goals, with an xG of 0.48, and with an overperformance of 1.52, the 32-year-old has certainly taken what few chances have come his way. With an average of 1.0 shots per game in the league, just a single effort on target on Tuesday will be good enough to tick this leg as a winner.

Before their trip to the San Siro, Juventus had averaged 4.0 shots on target in Serie A this season, in addition to the 12.7 shots per game they had also managed. Even though they were slightly below average in terms of attempts against Lazio last Sunday, that should not matter here.

Thiago Motta’s men recorded just three shots on target last weekend but three is the magic number for this leg. In six of their eight league outings to date, Juventus have recorded at least three shots on target, and with 75% of the sample proving positive, it is a positive enough choice for us to take here.

Since arriving at Napoli, Romelu Lukaku has inadvertently taken on the role of provider rather than scorer and although the former Inter forward leads the line for his new club, he is also the joint-second highest creator in Serie A this season with four assists to his name.

This goes alongside the three goals he has scored and because he is making rather than scoring goals, his shooting numbers are slightly distorted. The Belgian may only be averaging 0.57 Serie A shots on target but because of his all-round game, those numbers do not deter us before Tuesday.

With the strength of Milan and Napoli’s respective defences being mentioned above, it is time to squeeze further value from our Level 2 bet builder. We provided an element of margin at under 3.5 goals beforehand, that margin has been removed as we allow a maximum of two goals with this pick.

The main reason is due to just how good Napoli’s defence has been on the road this season and with three successive away clean sheets in Serie A before Tuesday, it is another reason to suggest that goals will be at a premium at the San Siro. 1.90 is an attractive price for this selection.

Our first pick brings us neatly to the next leg and if there is to be a maximum of two total goals at the San Siro, it may need a clean sheet to make sure there is – something that Napoli has been recorded with regularity on the road this season.

With the three successive league clean sheets already referenced, when you wind back their defensive league record to Napoli’s last 20 outings, the number of clean sheets doubles to six. That same period has seen just 21 goals conceded, signifying a team that is not known for its generosity.

Although goals may limited on Tuesday, that is not to suggest that opportunities in front of goal will be. Napoli have recorded an average of 4.33 shots on target across their first nine games of the Serie A season.

To add further credence to this selection, AC Milan have been known to invite pressure this term, and this is signified by the 3.75 average shots on target that they have given up to their opponents in Serie A. Pressure that Napoli are likely to add to, and recording four shots on target certainly seems in range.

The suggestion that both teams will not score may shut the door on Milan in terms of earning maximum points, but it does not silence Christian Pulisic and his attempt to score against the current league leaders. The American forward has already scored five league goals this season and has been involved in creating three more.

Operating just off the striker, the former Chelsea man has also averaged an average of 1.0 shots on target in Serie A and if Milan are to make life difficult for Napoli, you would anticipate that Pulisic will be front and centre of any attack that the hosts will look to launch.