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AC Milan v Pisa Best Bets Preview

AC Milan v Pisa Best Bets Preview

Wednesday 22 October, 20252 min read
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It’s a top versus bottom clash at the San Siro on Friday night as AC Milan take on Pisa. The hosts are free of European distractions this season, and it’s serving them extremely well so far. They sit top of the league with 16 points from seven games.

On the other end of the spectrum, it’s been a woeful start to the season for recently promoted Pisa; they’ve amassed just three points from seven games and sit bottom of the league.

Check out these AC Milan v Pisa Betting Stats for further insight.

These recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers are worth a browse ahead of kick-off.

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AC Milan v Pisa Best Bet
  • AC Milan v Pisa
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
2 Selections @ 2.46

AC Milan to Win

This looks like a no-brainer on the surface: Milan riding the crest of a wave, five wins in their last six Serie A games, keeping clean sheets in three of those wins. The hosts have beaten good-quality opposition in home matches against both Bologna and Napoli.

Pisa have conceded seven goals in their last two away games, funnily enough against both Bologna and Napoli. Despite managing a draw away to Atalanta, they were still heavily beaten on the xG battle, acquiring 0.64 xGF and conceding 1.91 xGA

A bright spark for AC Milan is the form of their superstar, Rafael Leao. He played as a lone striker against Fiorentina. Despite an injury-hit start to the campaign, he scored a brace last week on his first league start. If anything close to those numbers continue, then he’ll be a real force and livewire for Milan this season. He’s certainly hit the ground running.

Over 2.5 Pisa Corners

Game state will potentially be a factor here; the selection is potentially aided by AC Milan taking a lead in the first half. It would prompt Pisa to be more expansive in their approach and more progressive both in and out of possession.

I’m using Pisa’s two away games to Atalanta and Napoli as key reference points here. Against Atalanta, they managed four corners after starting the game in positive fashion. While against Napoli, they notched up three corners over the course of the game. The away game against Bologna is a more deceiving data point because they were reduced to ten men in the 36th minute.

Milan have conceded an average of four corners at the San Siro this season across their first four league games. The anomaly was a defeat to Cremonese, where they trailed for around fifty minutes of the game; the visitors only got two corners. Now, understandably, the visitors were sitting back and absorbing lots of pressure while ahead.

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📈 AC Milan v Pisa Form & Stats

After an extremely deflating home defeat to Cremonese on the opening day of the season, AC Milan have laid those demons to rest. A return of 16 points from the next 18 available has catapulted them to the summit of the league.

A win against Napoli and a draw away to Juventus point to strong foundations. The win against Napoli was particularly credible after playing more than thirty minutes with ten men. It’s a team showing defensive grit and a streetwise manner.

The key data supports AC Milan’s strong start to the season; they currently sit 2nd in the xG table, their xGF and xGA do show a slight overperformance, but nothing statistically significant.

Pisa are winless seven games into the season, picking up three draws and four defeats. However, they will take some comfort from the teams around them, who are all struggling to pick up points. As a mark of reflection, Serie A is looking particularly top-heavy this season.

Goals have been a key source of concern for Pisa; they’ve managed just three goals, while also conceding 10 in the process. Eight of those goals conceded have come in away matches.

There is a shred of comfort for Pisa; the underlying data suggests their xPOS in the league should be 18th rather than 20th. Perhaps more crucially, their xPTS so far this season is 6.60, a meaningful differential to the three points they currently have.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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