We got a lovely 14/1 winner on Sunday night in the game between AC Milan and Roma and I am expecting fireworks once more on Wednesday evening as the Serie A side host Portuguese giants FC Porto. In a very tough group which also contains Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, the outcome of this game is very important for both sides in their quest to make it through to the knockout stages. Despite their incredible form domestically, Milan have struggled in the Champions League this season having lost all 3 of their group games so far. In theory, Porto at home is their easiest game and this is an absolute must-win for the Italians should they want to maintain their slim hopes of qualification. As for Porto, well other than being hammered by Liverpool they have fared quite well. A 0-0 draw with Atletico was followed by a 1-0 over AC Milan in Portugal a fortnight ago. Goals could be relatively hard to come by in this one so cards the main stand out. As always, using my own research combined with my cheat sheet, below are my three favourite bet builder tips and predictions for the game at the San Siro on Wednesday evening.
Milan v Porto Bet Builder Tips
Pepe to be Carded
Despite now being 38 years of age, Pepe hasn’t changed or matured one bit and I absolutely love him for it. Alongside Sergio Ramos, Scott Brown and Diego Costa he ranks amongst the top s***houses in world football and in a game of this magnitude he looks perfect for a booking. 166 career yellow cards to date is pretty impressive isn’t it? Including 4 this season meaning along with Taremi he has the most cards of any Porto player this season. Up against one of Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Olivier Giroud who will go toe-to-toe with him physically I am expecting a real battle with elbows flying everywhere and I struggle to see veteran defender escaping punishment.
His cheat sheet stats, as touched upon are mightily impressive. Four yellows to his name with an average 0.62 fouls committed which shows when Pepe fouls he almost always gets a yellow. He is cynical to say the least and is also king time-waster should it be required which further increases his chances of a booking. At odds at 2.4 I feel he appears decent value for a yellow.
Mehdi Taremi to have 1+ Shots on Target
Taremi is a big, big player for Porto and the Iranian international has consistently been one of the best forward players in Portugal for the past couple of seasons. He made an instant impact upon his arrival in the country back in 2019 when he signed for Rio Ave from Qatari side Al-Gharafa. As is often the case, his impressive form at that kind of level was quickly noticed as the sharks circled, and Porto beat out their rivals to bring the 29 year old to Estádio do Dragão just one year later. 32 goals and 22 assists in just 62 games are very impressive numbers and mean he has a goal involvement in pretty much every game he plays for the Portuguese giants.
Milan while a very capable side in their native Italy, have shown how vulnerable they are in the Champions League this season. Three games played, three defeats and 6 goals conceded in the process. Porto will certainly get some joy and Mehdi Taremi for me is the most likely candidate to capitalise. Cheat sheet stats are again impressive, 1.27 shots on target from the 2.54 shots he attempts and is a very likely starter too which adds further confidence to the selection. Lets hope Porto’s main man can do the business!
Theo Hernandez to be Carded
The French full-back is a massive talent, no doubt but boy does he love to get stuck-in. For those who tuned in on Sunday night for the Serie A game between Roma and Milan, Hernandez was on one and despite picking up a first half booking he still absolutely charged into Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegerini in the second half to receive his marching orders. He is probably a slightly better attacker than he is a defender and at times is a little rash in the tackle and is regularly caught of position which partly explains why he is so fond of a yellow card.
With him being suspended in Serie A for the upcoming weekend due to his red card, he is certain to start here and I think looks excellent value at 2.88. His cheat sheet stats are mightily impressive with 1.07 fouls committed per game and 3 yellow cards accumulated and I strongly fancy the French international to pick up another card in this one.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets, my predicted line-ups can be found below *
Milan v Porto Predicted Line-ups
Milan Predicted 11 v Porto: Tatarusanu; Calabria, Tomori, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Tonali; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud (4-2-3-1)
Porto Predicted 11 v Milan: Marchesin; Corona, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Otavio, Oliveira, Grujic, Diaz; Evanilson, Taremi (4-4-2)
Milan v Porto Cheat Sheet
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Milan v Porto in the Champions League
📅 When is Milan v Porto? / Wednesday, 3 November 2021, 17:45 BST
🏟 Where is Milan v Porto? / San Siro (Milan)
📺 What TV Channel is Milan v Porto on? / BT Sport ESPN
📱 Online Live Streaming for Milan v Porto / bet365
🟨 …And who is the referee for Milan v Porto? / Clement Turpin
