In this article…
AC Milan v PSG
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Kick Off: Tuesday 7th November at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 3
As the Champions League enters matchday four, this is where crunch time really begins, and for Milan, it is entering do-or-die territory.
Last year’s semi finalists are already staring down the barrel of a group stage exit, sitting on two points, two behind Dortmund and Newcastle, and four behind PSG, today’s opponents.
PSG won the reverse fixture two weeks ago, running out comfortable 3-0 winners at the Parc de Princes. They will know that a win here will all but confirm their advance, with a single draw in their next two fixtures likely to be enough to see them through if they can secure all three points here.
Milan meanwhile know that a win would propel them right back into contention, and a loss would all but confirm an early exit from the competition. With the pressure building at the San Siro, and a disappointing 1-0 loss to Udinese at the weekend, Stefano Pioli’s men will be desperate for the three points.
This should lead to an entertaining and competitive contest, with plenty of goals, fouls and action across the field, making this the perfect candidate for a bet builder.
There are some great angles for a Milan v PSG bet builder in this one, with plenty of under-the-radar options on offer to help you secure a winner on this Tuesday evening fixture.
AC Milan v PSG Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find AC Milan v PSG stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🔴 AC Milan stats: Cards likely to fly in the San Siro
This is a crucial game, especially for Milan, and as such we should expect some crunching tackles and high effort plays from the Rossoneri. This should only worsen if PSG take the lead at any point in the game, with a loss here potentially being disastrous for Pioli’s side.
The cards have flown in for the Italian giants so far this Champions League campaign, with all three of their games having seen at least five cards.
Milan have been the recipients of four cards on two occasions, including their only home game, against Newcastle on matchday one, and in the reverse fixture against PSG a fortnight ago. The only game in which they have not hit the over 2.5 card line was away to Dortmund, where they still received two cards.
Their opponents have also seen plenty of cards, a sign not only of the stricter refereeing seen in European competition, but also of Milan’s tendency to drag their opponents down to their level. Only Dortmund saw more cards than the Italian side in the first rounds of fixtures, but Milan’s opposition have still averaged two cards per game thus far.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Milan cards @ 2.05
Prediction: AC Milan to receive the most cards @ 2.20
Prediction: Over 4.5 total cards @ 1.70
🗼 PSG stats: Milan unlikely to be able to live with the front three
PSG are heavy favourites here, and with good reason. The reverse fixture saw them ease to a 3-0 win, and it never really felt like they had to get out of second gear to do so.
Milan will likely pose more of a threat at home, but they did not generate a single big chance in the game at the Parc de Princes two weeks ago, and their 11 shots combined for an xG of just 0.58. Six of their 11 shots came from outside the box, and Pioli’s side really struggled to create any chances of note.
PSG meanwhile hit the woodwork, scored three times and had nine of their 13 shots from inside the box. The Milan defence is simply not good enough to prevent chances falling to the Parisian front three, and they are too good to not score.
Sitting at greater than evens to win tonight, this looks a fantastic option for any bet builder. Milan will surely be better than last week, but whether they will be good enough to get a result looks to be questionable. If you would like to guard against that risk however, the draw no bet market for PSG sitting at 1.57 makes it an appealing choice also.
A real odds booster would be taking the handicap. Backing PSG to win with a -1 handicap is currently sitting as high as 4.20, and though this is likely to be tougher than two weeks ago, they are playing an opponent low on confidence having failed to win any of their last four competitive games. A two-goal win for PSG would not be particularly surprising, so this should be carefully considered.
Prediction: PSG to win @ 2.20
Prediction: PSG draw no bet @ 1.57
Prediction: PSG (-1 handicap) @ 4.20
🎯 AC Milan offensive stats: Shots to be flying in at home
Milan’s shot numbers are much higher than you would anticipate for a side sitting bottom of their group.
Pioli’s men are averaging 4.66 shots on target across their three Champions League games, all the more impressive considering they have had only one game at home, and are on paper, probably the weakest side in this group of death.
Their shot numbers were also much higher in their home fixture, with 25 shots against Newcastle, compared to just 16 and 11 in their two away fixtures at the homes of Dortmund and PSG respectively.
They have managed eight, two and four shots on target so far, and with three points here being highly desirable, they are likely to shoot even more than in the reverse fixture, where 11 shots converted into four shots on target. Priced at 1.53, backing them to repeat or exceed this number looks a nice option.
Backing them to add just a couple more shots than they managed in the reverse fixture, at 13 or more, nets odds of 1.50, so total shot markets for Milan could be a nice option to explore. The Italian side notched 25 against Newcastle at home, and while unlikely to hit those heights, backing them to match the 16 they managed away at Dortmund would push the odds all the way up to 2.63.
Prediction: AC Milan to have 4+ shots on target @ 1.53
Prediction: AC Milan to have 13+ shots @ 1.50
Prediction: AC Milan to have 15+ shots @ 2.10
🎯 PSG offensive stats: Under-the-radar Dembele
All eyes are obviously on Kylian Mbappe when it comes to attacking threat for PSG, but Ousmane Dembele’s pace and close control at speed is a frightening prospect for any defender.
The Frenchman has averaged 1.33 shots on target per 90 since his move from Barcelona to Paris and has so far managed a shot on target in every Champions League tie he has started for his new club.
He has had 3 shots in both of his last two European matches, including against Milan last time out, and there is little reason to believe he will not hit similar numbers again today.
His numbers are much lower domestically, but Dembele benefits from the higher lines and much greater amounts of space afforded by teams in this competition, who are much keener to attack than most sides in Ligue 1 when facing off against this PSG side.
Prediction: Ousmane Dembele to have 2+ shots @ 1.40
Prediction: Ousmane Dembele to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.83
🛑 AC Milan defensive stats: Desperate Milan to rack up the fouls
With Milan needing a result here, it is easy to imagine the game heating up. They have been far from cautious so far, racking up cards at an alarming rate, and their foul numbers are similarly high.
They have averaged 14 fouls per game in the Champions League this season, with their lowest total coming in the away game against PSG, which was 11.
Backing them simply to match this is a nice option, with odds of 1.44 available. There is value to be found in increasing the line also, with 14+ fouls being as high as 2.80, appealing especially when you consider that their 16 and 15 fouls in their first two Champions League games both comfortably cleared this line.
In terms of individual fouls, the player to watch closest is Malick Thiaw. The young defender averages 1.68 fouls per game in all competitions and two per game in the Champions League.
He has hit this line in two of his three appearances, the only exception so far being the reverse fixture against PSG, where an early booking saw him withdrawn at halftime, having only committed one foul. He has played the full 90 minutes in both of the other games, and with Milan’s defensive injury struggles, he will likely see out the full game here too.
Prediction: AC Milan to commit 11+ fouls @ 1.44
Prediction: Malick Thiaw to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.30
Prediction: Malick Thiaw to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.40
🛑 PSG defensive stats: Busy evening in store for the PSG defence
Milan’s high shot numbers should lead to more to do for Gianluigi Donnarumma. The PSG keeper has averaged 3 saves per game this season in the Champions League.
He has had to make four saves in both of his last two appearances in the competition, against Newcastle and again in the home game against Milan. The only game in which this line was not reached was against Dortmund who managed just a single shot on target in the game.
We would anticipate Milan to shoot even more than they did last time out, where they racked up four shots on target from 11 attempts, which should allow Donnarumma the opportunity to clear the 3+ saves line relatively comfortably.
There is also value to be found in the fouls market, with this game likely to be influenced by a fierce atmosphere, and the added pressure on the home side who desperately need a result.
This should lead to an increase in fouls for both sides, and Manuel Ugarte is the place to look for the visitors. The Uruguayan midfielder averages 2.40 fouls per game and has committed at least one foul in eight of his 10 starts for the Parisians this season.
He committed three fouls in the games against Newcastle and last time out against Milan, and is on something of a foul streak, having committed at least one in his last five, and racking up two or more in all of his last four games. At 1.50 to commit two or more here, his price reflects the frequency of his fouling, but it remains a solid option for any bet builder.
Prediction: PSG GK to make 3+ saves @ 1.83
Prediction: Manuel Ugarte to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.50
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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