Ajax v Brighton

After facing a nightmare start to the season, Ajax seek to make it three wins on the bounce when they host Brighton at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Thursday night. Brighton fought valiantly to secure a 2-0 victory over their hosts to claim their maiden European win, last time out in the competition, and they will be looking to do the double over Ajax here to try and reclaim some form after recent performances

Back-to-back home wins for Ajax has provided a much-needed boost for the Dutch side after enduring their worst run since the introduction of professional football to the Netherlands in 1954. Since their last match against the Seagulls, John van ‘t Schip has taken charge as the interim head coach and will be hoping they can claim their first win in the Europa League this season in the Dutch capital. 

Brighton’s win at the Amex against Ajax proved a critical three points as they sit third in a very tightly contested Group B which sees all teams separated by only three points. The Seagulls have worryingly not won any of their last five Premier League matches and had to rely on an Ashley Young own goal to secure a 1-1 draw against Everton, leaving a lot to be desired for Roberto De Zerbi’s side. 

This feature will break down our Ajax v Brighton Cheat Sheet, highlighting any key markets where we see great value to help craft your bet builders – short and long odds! Let’s jump right into the breakdown.

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Ajax v Brighton Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

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🚢 Ajax stats: The nightmare seemingly over for the Amsterdam Giants

Shooting up to 11th in the Eredivisie shortly after Halloween passing, it does seem that the nightmare haunting Ajax’s 2023/24 campaign has come to an end. The Amsterdam Giants have only conceded one goal in their last two fixtures, an enormous step forward considering they had conceded 24 in their previous eight fixtures before John van ‘t Schip’s arrival. 

Currently sitting bottom of Group B, Ajax will be hoping to avoid going four European matches without a win for the first time since the 2015/16 Europa League, which saw them crash out in the group stage. A third consecutive home win would see Ajax level on points with current group leaders Marseille and would undoubtedly flip the group standing on its head, setting up a very exciting final two matchdays. 

The hosts still have a lot of work to do though as they have managed to register just one win from their last nine ties in European competition, which includes four defeats, but recent domestic form has definitely been a big step in the right direction. Another recent highlight plus has been Chuba Akpom, who appears to have found his feet in the Netherlands, and the Amsterdam side could put up a strong fight here.

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🥅 Brighton stats: De Zerbi’s side struggling to see wins through

Brighton’s last win across all competitions was their victory in this reverse fixture a few weeks ago, meaning the Seagulls have only managed one win in their last eight, drawing four and losing the other three – a strange stat for a team sat in seventh place in the Premier League having scored the fifth most goals this season. 

A concern that still remains for De Zerbi’s men is their defensive performance this year. Brighton have conceded 20 goals so far in the league this season, the fifth-worst record in the league, only ahead of Sheffield United, Bournemouth, Burnley and Luton – all of whom are facing a relegation scrap, not a top six charge. Their 2-0 victory over Ajax marked their first and only clean sheet across all competitions this season, a testament to their defensive struggles. 

Brighton games have a great tendency for goals with both teams scoring in 100% of their fixtures in the Premier League this season and with 82% of those games seeing over 2.5 goals. The Premier League average for 2.5 goals in a match is only 63%. They love to score and they love the challenge. Brighton are priced at a fairly short odds of 1.7 to pick up the win at the Johan Cruyff Arena, that is not a value bet.

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🎯 Ajax offensive stats: Should Brobbey be feeling worried?

Brian Brobbey has been a great attacking asset for Ajax this season. The academy graduate is really enjoying his first season of consistent minutes and is making his mark on this team, scoring five goals in the Eredivisie so far and he boasts some decent shooting stats. The 21-year-old is averaging 1.13 shots on target per 90 in the league from 2.93 efforts generating a respectable 0.61 xG in the same period. 

Chuba Akpom has certainly announced himself in true style, having scored three goals in his 150 minutes of football for the Amsterdam giants, including a brace at the weekend in the final ten minutes of the game. This strong emergence will no doubt be giving Brobbey some reason for concern about his spot in the starting XI, especially if Akpom continues to deliver.

It’s more likely that Brobbey will get the nod to start on Thursday ahead of Akpom, but we would suggest waiting for his confirmed place in the starting eleven before including any markets for him. Brobbey to have one shot on target is priced at 1.67, with a safer angle of him to have two shots on goal at 1.44 also a bet builder leg worth considering.

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🎯 Brighton offensive stats: Pedro has a point to prove

A strong aspect of Brighton’s attacking play this season is their danger at corners. They have taken the ninth-highest number of corners in the Premier League this season (59) and average 5.36 corners for per fixture. 

These numbers are carried into the Europa League too having racked up 11 corners in their outing against AEK Athens and a respectable five against both Marseille and Ajax. The Seagulls’ hosts on Thursday night have a tendency to concede corners, with Ajax conceding at least four corners in 11 of their last 13 across all competitions including conceding eight in their 4-1 home win over Heerenveen at the weekend, there is definitely potential for some corners here for Brighton. The visitors to take five corners or more is priced at 1.65. 

A man that is loving life in the Europa League is Joao Pedro who has netted an impressive four goals over the last three games despite only playing 180 minutes worth of football. The Brazilian is out of favour in De Zerbi’s Premier League starting XI but Pedro will be hoping to inspire the manager to reconsider his options with a strong performance in the Dutch capital. 

Joao Pedro is averaging 2.00 shots on goal per 90 and 1.50 shots on target over the same timeframe – respectable consistency with his efforts at goal. He is generating 1.70 xG per 90 minutes in the Europa League, which is nearly triple the figures of second-placed Danny Welbeck, who has only played half the minutes as Pedro, but a very strong average nonetheless. However, those xG numbers have been skewed a touch by the Brazilian already taking three penalties in the competition.

In the Premier League, Pedro continues his goalscoring threat with 2.50 shots at goal per 90, registering the second-highest xG in the Brighton squad with 0.48 – certainly proving himself as a consistent danger. Having struck again in the return fixture of this game, Pedro is certainly on form so a price of 2.63 for Joao Pedro to score is definitely tempting if your looking for longer odds selection in your bet builder. A safer angle for him to have one shot on target could also be considered.

Prediction: Over 4.5 Brighton corners @ 1.65

Prediction: Joao Pedro to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.33

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🛑 Ajax defensive stats: The Masters of subtle fouls

Ajax have been a fairly disciplined side this season having only picked up 16 yellow cards in the Eredivisie this term, which is 11 shy of their Thursday visitors.

With that in mind, targeting Ajax’s total fouls could be a good selection here. They average 10.30 fouls per game in the Europa League where it seems their discipline is lost slightly.

Brighton’s squad is full of talented players who love to take on opponents 1 on 1 and draw fouls. The Seagulls draw an average of 12.0 fouls per 90 in the Europa League and 13.50 in the Premier League, always causing trouble and testing their opponents’ patience. A safer angle for this market would be to take Ajax to commit ten or more fouls priced at 1.25, but for one extra foul, the odds are boosted to 1.44 which does provide solid value based on the stats.

For a player-specific market, the strongest fouling candidate is likely to be Kenneth Taylor who is emerging as a consistent fouler in this Ajax side. The Dutch midfielder has started every Europa League game and has picked up 1.67 fouls per 90 and drawn in 1.33 fouls in each match, a player who loves to get involved in midfield battles. These trends also translate into the Eredivisie where he commits 1.46 and draws 0.85 fouls per 90 minutes. 

Kenneth Taylor is facing up against the likes of Joao Pedro, Kaoru Mitoma and Ansu Fati, all of whom draw in 3.50, 1.63 and 3.18 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League, as well as a plethora of other Brighton players who draw fouls with regularity. Taylor is priced at a short 1.25 to commit one foul so his price of 2.30 to commit two fouls could be considered for higher odds bet builder.

Prediction: Ajax to commit 10+ fouls @ 1.25

Prediction: Ajax to commit 11+ fouls @ 1.44

Prediction: Kenneth Taylor to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.25

Prediction: Kenneth Taylor to commit two or more fouls @ 2.30

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🛑 Brighton defensive stats: Steele to have his hands full on Thursday night

As we’ve already mentioned, Brighton are looking increasingly worrying at the back and are persistent in giving their clear opportunities to score every week. Brighton faced less than four shots on target in 90 minutes only twice this season, during their 3-1 victory over Newcastle at the start of September and in the reverse fixture a few weeks ago, when Ajax registered a miserable one shot on target.

Ajax may be having issues converting chances into goals, but are boasting a respectable 5.73 shots on target per 90 in the Eredivisie and have taken 15.18 shots per 90 too. Ajax have managed 12 shots on target across their first two Europa League matches of this campaign and in their recent victories have landed eight and ten shots on target. 

Prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.44

Prediction: Ajax to have four or more shots on target @ 1.73

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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