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Albania v Spain
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Kick Off: Monday 24th June at 20:00
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Watch Live: BBC Two
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Competition: Euro 2024
Albania face already qualified Spain on matchday three in Group B, with the former in need of a win to keep their hopes of progressing into the knockout stages alive.
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Albania will look back with immense pride on the way they have performed so far, opening the scoring against Italy and Croatia. Unfortunately, the quality difference shone through in those two games, with Albania managing a last minute draw against the Croats but falling 2-1 to the Azzurri.
They have a chance of progressing to the knockouts with a win in their final group game but face a Spanish side in fantastic form. The Spanish go into the game at a rather generous 1.44 to win, which reflects the fact they have already qualified and are likely to rotate and rest some key players.
However, even a second choice Spanish team is still a very strong and competitive one, and Albania will be up against it.
Albania v Spain Best Bets
We think that Spain will send out a rotated side, but even their second string is still a very very good team. We can expect at least some of the regulars to play some part in the game, and our pick would be a simple one, Spain to win at 1.44 with Betfair.
It’s a must win game for Albania and the price reflects this to a degree, but the quality gap is still substantial and an Albanian team trying to win the game on the front foot could very well be picked off by the Spanish. Spain will be in a relaxed mood and will be just as dangerous even with little to play for, as they can be more adventurous in their play.
It might be a case of Spain nicking it by one goal and the possibility of Albania scoring which would put me off those more generous odds, but it would be a big surprise if Albania came out of this game with even a point, based on what we’ve seen so far.
📂 Albania v Spain Cheat Sheet
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You can find Albania v Spain match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 Albania Form and Stats
Albania come into this game having scored against both Croatia and Italy and will be optimistic of creating a few chances against the Spanish. Question marks were raised about whether their qualifying record was a misnomer, but they’ve demonstrated they’ve been able to compete by opening the scoring in both of their games so far.
Their impressive defensive work in qualifying has not quite materialised against the quality of opposition so far, conceding twice to both the Italians and Croatians respectively. Nevertheless, the opening day defeat to Italy remains their only defeat in their last ten competitive fixtures.
They will come into the game at full strength against a Spanish side who have already qualified and could be heavily rotated. If they can keep the Spaniards at bay and show the kind of composure in front of goal that they have already, they have a chance of landing an upset.
📊 Spain Form and Stats
The Spanish are in imperious form and their performances have moved them level with England on the betting exchanges for the Euros outright winner, having started the tournament closer to 8/1. A friendly defeat to Columbia in March is still their only defeat in 14 games.
The scoreline against Italy rather flattered the Italians, with Spain creating an xG of 2.02, with 20 attempts at goal and 8 on target. Although they were fortunate not to concede against Croatia, they were worthy of the 3 goals they did score, with an xG output of 2.01.
There was shock around the world when the possession counter came in, with Spain having just 46% of the ball in this encounter. Astonishingly, this was the first time they had less of the ball than their opponents in 136 games. A run stretching back to the Euro 2008 final.
Although fairly meaningless in one sense, it shows an indication that Spain are moving towards a more direct approach with the players they have and are happy to concede more territory to hit teams on the counter, which makes them a far less predictable opponent to anticipate.
⚔️ Albania v Spain Head-to-Head
The previous encounters between the two sides makes rather grim reading. Albania have never beaten the Spanish, going back to their first encounter in 1986.
In eight games, they have lost all eight, conceding a whopping 31 goals and scoring just three. Seven of those games were competitive matches, but their most recent game was a friendly that was a 2-1 victory to Spain.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy Robson.
18+ please gamble responsibly.
