Gem Bet: Arsenal v Nottingham Forest
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Declan Rice to Commit 1+ Fouls v Nottingham Forest @ 1.90 (bet365)
✅ bet365 - 1.90
Paddy Power - 1.40
Betfair - 1.40
SkyBet - 1.33
- Arsenal v Nottingham Forest
- Premier League
- 12:30
A £10 bet on this Gem Bet returns £19 if it wins.
This Gem Bet is best price with bet365. Join here and claim a new customer offer.
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Priced at 1.91 with bet365, they, once again, have significantly overpriced this line, especially when judged against Rice’s current discipline record and the matchups he is likely to face against Forest.
Rice has committed a foul in every Premier League game so far this season, extending his streak to five straight competitive matches. Stretching back further, he has registered at least one foul in 13 of his last 18 appearances for Arsenal across all competitions. That level of consistency highlights how active he is defensively, and how often he gets involved in duels that risk being penalised.
Operating on the left side of Arsenal’s midfield three, Rice is set to encounter Forest’s right-hand side, an area stacked with pace, direct running, and physical presence. Among his likely opponents are:
Dan Ndoye (RM): Won a notable 4.23 fouls per 90 in Serie A last season.
Ibrahim Sangaré (RDM): Averaged 0.78 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League, whilst winning 5.64 duels per 90, too.
Ola Aina (RB): Won 1.05 fouls per 90 in the Premier League last season, and is averaging a foul won per 90 again this term.
That combination of ball carriers and combative midfielders makes Forest’s right-hand side a minefield of frequent duels, one that Rice will be tasked in diffusing and breaking up play. Given his current foul streak and the profile of his opponents, the likelihood of him being penalised at least once in doing so looks strong.
The value becomes even clearer when you compare prices, this line is priced at 1.40 with Paddy Power and Betfair, and at 1.33 with SkyBet.
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