Arsenal v Real Madrid

Mikel Arteta welcomed back Bukayo Saka to Premier League action last week and will be relieved that he is fit enough to start here. Arsenal have won and drawn a game since returning from the international break but have only lost one game in the Champions League this season.

Real Madrid have encountered some stumbling blocks of their own in recent weeks, preparing for this first leg with a 2-1 loss at home against Valencia, which is a result that will raise a few alarm bells for Carlo Ancelotti seeing as that was the first away win Valencia have managed all season. Madrid did survive a late scare following an investigation by UEFA into some of the celebrations after their round of 16 success against Atletico Madrid, but all of their key stars should be fit to feature here.

⭐ Arsenal v Real Madrid Best Bet

Vinicius Jr has recorded nine goal contributions across his 10 appearances in the competition (7 goals, 2 assists). He’s had 16 shots on target across these appearances (1.56 per 90). Arsenal will be weakened at the back due to an injury to Gabriel that has likely ruled him out for the rest of the season, with the less assured Jakob Kiwior set to take his place.

This is significant as Arsenal’s defensive success has been built on the reliability of Saliba and Gabriel as a centre back partnership. Kiwior's involvement will encourage Real Madrid with their menacing front three of Mbappe, Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr.

Real Madrid are averaging 6.8 shots on target per game in the Champions League this season. Only PSG (7.0) and Bayern (7.9) are having more shots on target per match than Los Blancos, who can make the most of the absences in the Arsenal side. Given Vini's shooting record and Gabriel's absence, odds of 1.80 for the Brazilian to notch a shot on target look generous.

🟢 Arsenal v Real Madrid ABC Exclusive Boost

👕 Arsenal v Real Madrid Predicted XI

🔍 Arsenal v Real Madrid Players to Watch

🔴 Jakub Kiwior

Kiwior is being thrown in the deep end here up against the most talented forward line in Europe. The defender is averaging 1.11 fouls committed per 90 across his 10 Premier League appearances this season and this lack of game time could prove costly against the attacking talent that Real Madrid possess.

He’ll be up against Kylian Mbappe, which is arguably the toughest test for a centre back in world football at the moment, Mbappe is averaging 0.84 fouls won per 90 across his 12 appearances in the Champions League this season. Kiwior committed a foul in Arsenal’s draw with Everton at the weekend and could falter in the limelight in this first leg clash. 

⚪ Antonio Rudiger

Rudiger is key for Real Madrid in these games which are often tight, especially in first leg meetings of the tie. Rudiger has taken eight shots across his 11 appearances in the Champions League this season (0.71 per 90) - a record that places him in the 82nd percentile when comparing to other centre backs in the competition.

He’s scored two goals in the Champions League as a result of this record and is also averaging 1.02 shots per 90 across his 27 LaLiga appearances this campaign. Rudiger can be a threat from set pieces, where Madrid could be able to catch Arsenal out with Gabriel absent, but also isn’t afraid to let fly from distance - which is where nine of his 24 shots in LaLiga have come from this term.

📂 Arsenal v Real Madrid Cheat Sheet

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🔥 Arsenal v Real Madrid Streaks

These are team selections that have landed in the last 5 Champions League games ↙️

Arsenal 2+ goals scored 
Arsenal 9+ shots (14+ in 4/5)
Arsenal 4+ shots on target 
Arsenal 3+ corners
Arsenal 2+ cards
Arsenal opponents 1+ cards

Real Madrid 9+ shots (13+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid 3+ shots on target (6+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid 3+ corners (5+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid opponents 3+ corners (4+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid 9+ fouls won

🏟️ Arsenal v Real Madrid Hit Rates

These are player selections that have landed in each of the last 5 Champions League games ↙️

Saka 1+ fouls won 
Lewis-Skelly 1+ fouls won
Saka 2+ shots
Calafiori 1+ shots 
Saka 1+ shots on target 
Kiwior 1+ tackles
Calafiori 1+ tackles 

Bellingham 1+ fouls committed 
Vinicius Jr 1+ fouls won
Bellingham 1+ fouls won
Vinicius Jr 2+ shots (3+ in 4/5)
Rodrygo 1+ shots
Bellingham 1+ shots

Arsenal v Real Madrid Ref Watch

• Referee - Irfan Peljto.

• Stats are per 90 and are taken from Peljto's 24/25 Champions League games (6 total)

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.