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10/1 Aston Villa v Brighton Bet Builder Predictions, Tips & Cheat Sheet

10/1 Aston Villa v Brighton Bet Builder Predictions, Tips & Cheat Sheet

Friday 29 September, 20236 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Aston Villa v Brighton

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Date: Saturday 30th September
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Competition: Premier League
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Kick off: 12:30
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1

The first game of the weekend sees Aston Villa host Brighton at Villa Park. The hosts are coming off the back of a disappointing mid-week defeat against Everton, which saw them tumble out of the Carabao Cup. Villa struggled to create many chances this game despite seeing the majority of the ball. They recorded just 0.51 xG, compared to Everton’s 1.83. 

The Villans set up differently in this defeat compared to their 1-0 away victory against Chelsea last weekend, opting for a 4-2-3-1 formation over their previous 4-4-2. They also started without the likes of Ollie Watkins, Lucas Digne, and Boubacar Kamara – giving these players rest for Saturday’s clash. 

Brighton also suffered a defeat midweek, losing to an out-of-form Chelsea side. The Seagulls made seven changes to their starting XI in their cup tie, meaning that most of their strongest players are eligible and fit to play against Villa in a tough away game. Brighton currently sit 3rd in the Premier League and will want to build on their strong form. 

Previous games between these two sides have been highly entertaining. The last three times they met, over 2.5 goals were scored in each game, and during both times they met in Premier League games last season, there were seven cards in each game. Seven.

If you fancy a full breakdown of bet builder stats, head over to the Opta-powered Bet Builder Stats section of our website. It’s available for all Premier League, English Championship, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and French Ligue 1 matches this weekend, meaning that we have you covered for your Aston Villa v Brighton bet builder.

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Villa have an exceptional record against the Seagulls

Brighton fans must feel they are somewhat cursed against Aston Villa. Across their last 14 league games, the Seagulls have only managed one win – losing eight and drawing five. Villa’s strong goalscoring record will only dampen Brighton fans’ spirits further. They have scored an average of 2.07 goals per game this calendar year, a figure that rises to 2.2 when looking at the games only played at Villa Park.

Over the two games in which Villa and Brighton clashed in the 2022/23 season, Villa scored twice in both. They also accumulated more shots on target and xG in both home and away games.

Aston Villa team news

Watkins, Digne, Kamara, and Emiliano Martinez are all likely to return to Villa’s starting XI on Saturday, with those starting mid-week (Youri Tielemans, Robin Olsen, Jhon Duran, and Leander Dendoncker) expected to be benched. 

Amongst Villa’s injuries is Leon Bailey, who was forced off their midweek game due to a thigh strain. He is likely to be on the sidelines alongside Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia, who are both out for sustained periods of time with knee injuries.

Brighton sit in 3rd yet have no clean sheets

Brighton have had an amazing run of games so far this season, and currently sit in 3rd place in the Premier League table. Despite this, they have failed to keep a clean sheet, across all competitions, since July. They even conceded to Luton, the team with the lowest goals scored in the league so far. 

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De Zerbi’s men are clearly a very attacking side, but this could leave them exposed to Villa’s in-form attack on Saturday.

Brighton team news

De Zerbi’s squad is suffering from two long-term injuries (Julio Enciso and Jakub Moder), whilst Pascal Gross, James Milner, and Evan Ferguson are all doubts and are expected to be assessed ahead of kick-off. Despite young talent Ansu Fati being removed at half-time against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, he is expected to be in contention to start against Villa.

Aston Villa v Brighton Cheat Sheet

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Here it is. The Aston Villa v Brighton Cheat Sheet. All the previously mentioned stats can be found on the Cheat Sheet, as well as many more. From referee team corners to player foul stats, everything you could want to help pick out your bets is included.

The two levels of bet builder below have also been carefully selected from the Cheat Sheet. They have been chosen from a combination of player form, historical averages, and the perceived value of the selection.

For more extensive bet builder info, make sure to head over to our Bet Builder Stats page, where we have Opta-powered statistical breakdowns of major leagues across the UK and Europe, including the Aston Villa v Brighton game.

To make the most of our Aston Villa v Brighton bet builder tips you can sign up to Betfair below. Stake up to £10 on your preferred option, and get £50 in free bet builders no matter what the result.

ABC's 3/1 Aston Villa v Brighton bet builder

🚀 Matty Cash to have 1+ shot

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Odds: 1.20
Matty Cash has been playing in a more advanced role on Villa’s right-hand side. This has seen him take the second most shots so far this season for Villa (14), falling just shy of Ollie Watkins (16). https://twitter.com/AVFCOfficial/status/1695904021486416086 However, he has taken Villa’s most shots on target (7), and has had the most shots out of any Premier League “defender”. This high-shooting form has rewarded him with two goals this season.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🛑 John McGinn to commit 1+ foul

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Odds: 1.25
When talking of Villa fouls, it is hard not to bring up John McGinn. The Scotsman has a lifetime average of 1.41 fouls per game and has fouled in each of his last four games for Villa. The last time the two met, at Villa Park, McGinn committed four fouls. He is likely to be positioned in right midfield, meaning he will have the tough task of defending against Kaoru Mitoma, a winger who has suffered an average of over one foul per game this season (1.08) across all competitions. Also likely to start on Brighton’s left side is Pervis Estupinan, who has similarly suffered a high amount of fouls per game (1.17).

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🎯 Kaoru Mitoma to have 1+ shot on target

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Odds: 1.83
Mitoma has been on fire for Brighton this season. The Japanese international has the highest goal involvements of any Brighton player (6) and has taken an average of 0.9 SOT per 90 minutes. https://twitter.com/OfficialBHAFC/status/1706239367172264130 His lifetime average is higher than this, standing at 1.05. Out of Brighton’s men, he looks to be the perfect candidate to have a shot on target on Saturday.

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🚩 Over 3.5 Brighton corners

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Odds: 1.30
Brighton have taken the 6th most corners so far this season, averaging six per game. More specific to Saturday’s game, Brighton have averaged 6.26 corners in the Premier League this calendar year; 4.72 when looking at only games they played away from home. Given the height of Brighton’s squad, especially the centre-back partnership of Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster, corners present a serious goal scoring threat and are something De Zerbi will be keen to take advantage of.

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ABC's 10/1 Aston Villa v Brighton bet builder

🚀 Matty Cash to have 1+ shot

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Odds: 1.20
Another angle for why betting on Villa shots is a good idea is due to Brighton’s poor defensive record. They have conceded an average of 11.5 shots per game, failing to keep a clean sheet in any match since July. This is partly due to their attacking focus, which has allowed their opponents this season to average 2.67 counterattacks per game. Matty Cash is good value here at 1.20 to have 1+ shot.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🟨 John McGinn to be shown a card

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Odds: 2.50
Many have said before that McGinn is a walking yellow card. He was carded in both outings against Brighton last season and has a lifetime average of just over a card every five games. McGinn was also carded last weekend against Palace.

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🎯 Kaoru Mitoma to have 1+ shot on target

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Odds: 1.83
Although Mitoma did not start for Brighton in either game against Villa last season, those who were playing on the left flank for Brighton had a shot on target in both home and away fixtures. He is also in strong form at the moment, bagging two goals last weekend against Bournemouth.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🚩 Over 4.5 Brighton corners

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Odds: 1.72
The Seagulls took a combined 14 corners over both games they played against Villa last season. This was despite them having fewer shots and an overall attacking threat in both games. Finally, Villa’s opponents have taken an average of 5.51 corners per game over the last calendar year. For Brighton to do the same, a price of 8/11 is very appealing.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing

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