Man City huffed and puffed in their tense title tussle with Arsenal on Sunday and posted one of their lowest xG figures of the campaign (1.00) on an afternoon where both teams played with little risk, though the Cityzens have routinely struggled to spark in the final third of late.

With their grip on the title starting to loosen a little, City managed to score just nine times in their last seven Premier League fixtures combined and while they still retain enough class to topple Villa this week, any margin of victory they do secure is likely to be slim.

Unai Emery’s expertly-organised Villans hold the Premier League’s fourth-best defensive record this season and they gave City the run-around in December when they inflicted the champions’ only loss in 24 fixtures with a rousing display at Villa Park.

City – who have notched one or fewer goals in five of their last six games – are unlikely to have things all their own way in Wednesday’s match, and the prices floating about for Villa in the +3.0 goal handicap stakes are generous in the extreme.

The Villans have done plenty of admirable work on the road since November, losing only once in nine assignments on their travels, with that solitary defeat suffered at Old Trafford in a clash where they threw away a two-goal lead to lose to United.

A three-goal headstart looks like a massive advantage for Villa at the Etihad Stadium and that’s the direction we recommend taking.

Erling Haaland’s accuracy seems to have abandoned him of late and alongside failing to find the target with any of his four efforts against Arsenal on Sunday, the Norwegian managed to register just a single shot on target in each of his two Premier League appearances before that.

Still, the 23-year-old remains well-serviced and Haaland should get into better goalscoring positions against Villa on Wednesday. Despite a mediocre return of goals, Haaland has clocked at least three shots in seven of his last eight Premier League run-outs and he could do the same against Villa.

Phil Foden – who landed at least at shot on target in nine of his last 12 top-tier appearances – has been making better use of his opportunities than Haaland and the 23-year-old looks like the better candidate in terms of reliability and price in the 1+ shots on target stakes.

For Villa, former City midfielder Douglas Luiz could be one to watch against his old club. The Brazilian is something of a dark horse in this area of the market and the 25-year-old had at least one shot in 12 of his last 16 appearances in the league.

The Villans’ designated penalty-taker had a game-high equalling five shots when Villa edged out City in December and keen to impress on his old stomping ground, Luiz is worth backing to let loose at least once again on Wednesday.

Manchester City have been reliably dominant in their league fixtures in terms of possession and territory this term, especially at the Etihad Stadium where the unbeaten champions have been controlling 67.2% of play on average.

The squeeze they put on their visitors to Manchester usually results in sky-high corner tallies for the Sky Blues and City have been winning an average of 8.27 of them per home game this season.
Pep Guardiola’s charges won seven corners against Arsenal on Sunday, though that was the first time in four matches on home soil where City’s corner count dropped below double figures.

City managed to earn 15 corners against Man United, 10 versus Brentford and 12 against Chelsea in their three home league games preceding their skirmish with Arsenal and their haul could be similarly high against Aston Villa this week.

City fielded a back three with two screening midfielders when they lost to Villa in December and each member of that five-man defensive unit committed at least one foul as the champions struggled to contend with the Villans’ counter-attacking bursts.

The pattern of Wednesday’s rematch could be similar and with City likely to use the same back four that started against Arsenal on Sunday, full backs Josko Gvardiol and Manuel Akanji – both of whom fouled at Villa Park before Christmas – could be in for an uncomfortable evening again.

Croatian Gvardiol can often be caught flat-footed against speedier opponents and having committed at least one foul in eight of his last 11 league appearances, the 22-year-old can be backed to sin at least once again here.

His team-mate, Manuel Akanji, will fill in for the injured Kyle Walker on the right again, and the 28-year-old could match the one foul he committed from that position against Arsenal on Sunday.
For Villa, Douglas Luiz catches our attention again in a second market. The keen competitor gave away at least two free kicks in three of his last four appearances and in the suspended John McGinn’s absence, Luiz will have to crank up the intensity of his tackles again on Wednesday.

Villa look a little lightweight in the middle with McGinn and the dynamic Boubacar Kamara absent, so Luiz will have more heavy lifting to do as the most senior figure in the mix. Expect the South American to stick his boot in against his old employers.