McGinn is all action for Aston Villa and is crucial to how Unai Emery’s side play, particularly off the ball with his energy and ability to cover distances. He’s committed 43 fouls across his 29 Premier League appearances this season (1.97 per 90).

McGinn contested 10 duels in the initial meeting between these sides at Villa Park, resulting in the Scotsman committing three fouls and being shown a yellow card. Villa committed 14 fouls in that game, which is a few fouls higher than their average of 11.0 fouls committed per game across the season as a whole.

Villa will have to be aggressive off the ball here if they are to come away with a result, which should see McGinn overstep the mark on a few occasions. He’ll be up against Kevin De Bruyne (0.92 fouls won per 90) and will also have to keep an eye on the wide areas where City have multiple players that can draw fouls in Savinho, Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish. 

Villa have had an issue with keeping clean sheets all season, especially on the road. Unai Emery’s side have only kept six clean sheets across the entirety of the campaign and this is also reflected in their recent games. Villa have seen BTTS in four of their last five games across all competitions, with the exception coming against Southampton who have one of the worst goalscoring records in the division. 

BTTS landed in the initial meeting between these sides with Phil Foden getting a late consolation goal after Villa had dominated the game and established a two-goal lead. Villa’s lack of defensive discipline naturally sees their games produce goals for both sides, this should come into play here, with both sides needing the points in the race for the Champions League. BTTS has landed in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides, too.

There is no doubting that Man City have regressed defensively this season. There are a variety of reasons for this dip in defensive solidity, but they’re now far more vulnerable to the counter-attack, and their keeper has been tested more regularly this campaign as a result.

Villa have seen a massive improvement in their shots on target numbers since the January transfer window. They drew four saves from Ortega in the initial meeting between the sides at Villa Park and have hit nine shots on target in each of their last two games against Newcastle and PSG, showing their improvement in this metric.

The context surrounding this game could really aid this leg of our bet builder. Villa have a very weak defensive record on the road, so they can’t rely on defensive brilliance alone to carry them through this encounter.

De Bruyne registered a goal and an assist against Crystal Palace in his most recent game at the Etihad, in a performance that was reminiscent of his prime for Pep Guardiola’s side.

He’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 15 Premier League starts this season (three goals, seven assists), which is a more than decent record for a player who has been struggling with injuries and being rotated out of the side for large parts of the season. He looks a good price to score or assist here, against a Villa side who concede plenty of goals.

Rogers found the target twice in Villa’s 4-1 win over Newcastle last time out, with Unai Emery’s side having nine shots on target in total during the game. 

Rogers’ shot on target record isn’t particularly standout (0.64 per 90), but this is due to the variety of positions he’s had to play for Villa, rather than a shyness for taking aim at goal. He’s Villa’s 2nd-top scorer in the Premier League this season with eight goals, only Ollie Watkins has more in the top-flight (15).

Rogers had four shots and scored what proved to be the winner in the initial meeting between these sides at Villa Park earlier in the campaign. He can be as effective for Villa here with this selection, also aided by the depth that Villa have on the bench which should see Donyell Malen or Marcus Rashford come on for Rogers, should he not quite find his rhythm here.

City look like they’re building towards some consistency after a chaotic season which has left them battling for a place in the Champions League, which seemed unthinkable at the start of the campaign. Both sides enter the game with momentum, but City crucially hold the advantage here, seeing as they are the home side.

City have won 10 of their 16 games at the Etihad this season, only losing three of these encounters. Villa have been quite weak on the road this season, failing to win nine of their 16 assignments away from Villa Park. Unai Emery’s men are particularly porous away from home, conceding 27 goals across these games.

History is not on Villa’s side either here; they’ve lost their last nine trips to the Etihad in a run that stretches all the way back to 2012. Such a dominant record should make it difficult for Villa to get something from this game, with both sides motivated by the hunt for Champions League football next season.