This feels like one of the safest angles in football at the moment with Haaland scoring in each of his last 12 appearances across all competitions for club and country. He’s had 34 shots across his eight Premier League appearances this season (4.46 per 90) with 18 of these attempts finding the target (2.36 per 90).

These remarkable numbers have resulted in 11 Premier League goals for Haaland from an xG of 8.67. His clinical finishing ability is unmatched across Europe and he’s added a further four goals across three appearances in the Champions League. He’s had seven shots on target across these appearances (2.46 per 90) so he’s consistently finding the target at least twice in the majority of his games so far this term.

Villa have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, but have only managed to keep one clean sheet across these games so you would expect Manchester City to seriously test their backline with the 17 goals they’ve scored this term, 64% of which have been scored by Haaland.

Guessand netted his first goal for Aston Villa in their 2-1 defeat against Go Ahead Eagles during the week and committed a foul from the six duels he contested in the game. The defensive role he’ll have here on the left hand side up against Jeremy Doku has caught my eye with the duo likely to brush up against each other on multiple occasions.

Doku has won 12 fouls across his five Premier League starts this season (2.42 per 90) so he is a player that demands special provisions to stop him, with the most obvious way of doing that being to instruct a winger to support their fullback against Doku. Guessand has been committing fouls pretty consistently since he joined Villa with at least one foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances.

Guessand has committed six fouls across his four starts overall (1.57 per 90) and should have extra instructions here to help Villa deal with the threat of Doku who has been really bright in the early parts of the season, while maintaining one of his strongest attributes which is taking players on and winning fouls.

I don’t trust either of these backlines at the moment. Villa have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches which came in their 2-0 win over Feyenoord in the Europa League - you have to go back to Villa’s 0-0 draw with Everton on the road for their last clean sheet in the Premier League so they’ve been far from secure at the back.

City have managed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last three matches, representing a slight improvement in the defensive prowess of City who struggled to keep sides out last season. These clean sheets have come against Everton, Brentford and Villarreal who are all solid sides, but I’d expect Villa to carry more threat than those teams as the home side here.

Villa have scored five goals across their four home games this season, conceding the exact same amount as they’ve avoided defeat in three of these matches. City’s four away games have produced 10 goals with BTTS landing in two of these games, as well as their away trip to Monaco in the Champions League.

BTTS landed in both meetings between these sides last season as the sides traded 2-1 victories. BTTS has landed in four of the last five head to head meetings between these sides so it is a fixture that regularly produces goals at both.

I’m warming to the idea of City as title challengers this season with their recent run of form showing signs of when City were at their most dangerous. They’ve avoided defeat in each of their last nine matches across all competitions with their only defeats this season still being those back to back losses against Tottenham and Brighton before the first international break.

City have avoided defeat in three of their four away matches this term, winning two of these games. The draw in this run was against Arsenal which was always going to be a tough game and the aforementioned defeat to Brighton looks to have been a catalyst for this current unbeaten run so City are in pretty good shape when they travel away from home.

Villa fell to a bruising 2-1 defeat against Go Ahead Eagles during the week which brought to an end their five game winning streak which has allowed them to recover from their slow start to the campaign. They only kept two clean sheets across these games, so there has been a part of Villa which has remained vulnerable despite their upturn in form.

Cash has picked up two yellow cards across his eight Premier League appearances this season which have come against Everton and Crystal Palace - both occasions where he was matched up by a player that had an incredibly strong foul won record, as he is here.

Cash has committed seven fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this season (0.90 per 90) and we can expect him to add a few fouls to that tally here as he lines up against Jeremy Doku.

Doku is one of the best wingers in the league when it comes to 1v1 duels and has matured this season to add end product to his game. Doku has won 12 fouls across his five Premier League starts this term (2.42 per 90) which is a record that suggests he’ll be a real thorn in the side of Cash here.

Cash has also picked up a booking in the Europa League this season which came against Bologna. He committed three fouls and was shown a yellow card in this fixture last season as he faced up against Jack Grealish. Doku should be able to draw a similar number of fouls from the aggressive fullback here.

Watkins didn’t get an opportunity to start either game against Manchester City last season, but both Duran and Rashford who led the line for Villa in those games managed at least three shots against Pep Guardiola’s side.

Watkins’ level has dropped in the early parts of the season with just one Premier League goal across his eight appearances in the competition. He’ll be eager to improve on this record which has seen him have 12 shots (1.72 per 90) which is well below the shot volume which Watkins is capable of, as we’ve seen in recent seasons.

Watkins had 84 shots across his 38 Premier League appearances for Aston Villa last season (2.90 per 90). He needs to impress Unai Emery again with Donyell Malen showing promise in the striker role in recent weeks, which is also something that can support our selection through super sub.

I always keep an eye out for the centre back lining up against Ollie Watkins. This is due to the fact that Watkins is not like the majority of Premier League strikers in that he relies more on his movement and mobility rather than speed or size which can make him an awkward opponent for centre backs.

Dias is a quality defender, but he isn’t the most mobile and often finds himself in situations where he has to step out from the backline to make a tactical foul, or lose track of a more mobile attacker such as Watkins. Watkins has won nine fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this season (1.29 per 90), highlighting the effectiveness of his intelligent movement.

Dias has committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances with this total tally sitting at 0.71 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League. Watkins should be able to test the 28 year old with Watkins having an advantage when it comes to mobility and timing his runs effectively.