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Leeds v West Ham Bet Builder Tips, 14/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Leeds v West Ham Bet Builder Tips, 14/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Wednesday 22 October, 20255 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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West Ham travel to Elland Road to take on Leeds, who have avoided defeat in three of their four home matches in the Premier League so far this season.

West Ham have won just one of their eight league matches this term and have conceded the most goals of any side in the Premier League (18).

Check out these Leeds v West Ham Betting Stats ahead of kick-off on Friday night.

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Leeds v West Ham Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Leeds v West Ham
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
4 Selections @ 2.85

Leeds Double Chance

West Ham have been the worst team in the Premier League so far this season, in my opinion. Wolves sit below them in the table, having failed to win any of their eight matches, but at least Vitor Pereira’s side have shown some grit and fight at times, which hasn’t been present at the London Stadium so far this season.

West Ham’s 2-0 defeat against Brentford last time summed up their main issues. They were lethargic and unorganised at the back, which allowed the Bees to have 22 shots - the most they’ve had in a Premier League match so far this season. 

Recruitment is the main issue for the Hammers; they’ve ended up with an unbalanced squad which isn’t suited to Nuno’s playstyle following two summers of misguided decisions, stemming from a lack of structure above the manager.

Leeds have avoided defeat in three of their four matches at Elland Road so far this season, with the exception being their 2-1 defeat against Tottenham in their most recent home game. This result was fortuitous for Tottenham, with Leeds competing well throughout the encounter. They can summon the same fight here against a sheepish West Ham side that looks like it will crumble under the first sign of adversity.

Over 1.5 Goals

West Ham have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, with the Hammers unable to get a win in this period. They saw exactly two goals last time out in their 2-0 defeat to Brentford at home, which was a game in which they allowed the away side to generate an xG of 2.37. 

This becomes even more alarming when realising that Brentford hadn’t won an away game in the Premier League up until that point, yet managed to dominate at the London Stadium. 

Leeds have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches, with the exception of their 1-0 defeat against Fulham, which was always tipped to be a crazy game. They tend to be quite aggressive in their approach at Elland Road, and I think they’ll smell blood here with West Ham on an alarming run of form that shows no signs of changing anytime soon.

West Ham have conceded more goals than any other side in the Premier League so far this season (18 - 2.25 per game). I wouldn’t put it past the Hammers collapsing again here with the intensity of Leeds’ approach at home so far this season.

Jarrod Bowen to have 2+ Shots

Bowen has once again looked like one of the few West Ham players who actually has a bit of quality. He had to carry the side on his back last season to ensure that they didn’t get dragged into a relegation scrap, and could have to do the same this season with West Ham winning just one of their eight Premier League matches so far.

Bowen has scored three goals in the Premier League so far this season, which is half of the total tally that West Ham have managed across the opening few matches of the season. These three goals have come from 17 shots (2.12 per 90), eight of which have managed to find the target (1.00 per 90).

I think this price is pretty generous for Bowen to have two shots here. He’s the only member of the West Ham frontline playing with any confidence at the moment, and he is suited to how Nuno wants to play, which is in a counter-attacking style. Bowen has had 2+ shots in four of his last five Premier League appearances for the Hammers. 

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ Shots on Target

Calvert Lewin’s main challenge this season is to stay fit; if he can do that, then there is no reason why the 28-year-old cannot score the goals required to keep Leeds up this season. A fully fit Calvert Lewin is a solid Premier League striker, but keeping him on the pitch has proven a challenge in recent seasons.

He’s scored one goal for Leeds in the Premier League so far this season, which is roughly in line with his personal xG of 1.69. He’s had 13 shots across his six Premier League starts (2.62 per 90) with seven of these attempts finding the target (1.41 per 90).

One route to the target that stands out to me for Calvert Lewin here is aerially. West Ham are a mess at the back, and dealing with high balls into the box has proven difficult for their centre-back pairing, which Nuno has already changed in his early weeks in charge. 

Leeds love to get the ball into the box with an average of 6.30 crosses per game in the Premier League this season - the second highest in the division behind Wolves (6.50). With this information in mind, it may also be worth exploring markets for Calvert Lewin to have a few headed shots or a headed shot on target - six of his 13 shots this season have been headers (46%).

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Leeds v West Ham Best Longshot Bets
  • Leeds v West Ham
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 15.40

Over 1.5 Leeds Goals

I think Leeds can make the most of the defensive issues West Ham are facing at the moment. One of the key weaknesses West Ham have right now is their inability to defend crosses into their box - 10 of the 22 shots that Brentford had against the Hammers were headers, and this vulnerability should come to the fore here.

Only Wolves (6.50 per game) cross the ball more often than Leeds so far in the Premier League this season (6.30). This number increases slightly more at Elland Road, which means we can expect a lot of crosses from Leeds here, knowing that it is a real strength in their game and an obvious weakness for their opponent. I’d look out for the back post in particular here, West Ham have been really poor at defending that area of their box.

Leeds scored two goals at Elland Road in their 2-2 draw with Bournemouth a few weeks ago and were unlucky not to build on the one goal they scored against Tottenham at home last time out. West Ham have conceded more goals than any other side in the Premier League so far this season (18), so we can expect Leeds to have a few chances here against the division's worst backline.

Anton Stach to Score or Assist

Anton Stach has been one of my favourite players to watch in the Premier League so far this season. His size instantly catches your eye with the German standing at 6’4, giving him the frame to be dominant in midfield areas, but he offers more than just power and stature, with Stach also showing tremendous creative ability in the early weeks of the campaign.

He’s registered two goal contributions across his eight Premier League appearances so far this season, with both of these contributions coming in Leeds’ 3-1 win over Wolves on the road a few weeks ago. Stach has had 14 shots across his eight Premier League appearances this season (1.85 per 90) and has also managed to create 14 chances (1.85 per 90), showing his ability to be effective in the final third.

Stach can also be a real threat aerially here. I’ve touched on West Ham’s issues in dealing with high balls into the box in the earlier sections, and the tall midfielder is a prime candidate to take advantage of this weakness. Stach is also on free kicks for Leeds, which can offer another route to a goal contribution. He’s already scored a fantastic free kick against Wolves this season, so he could be in line for another long-range effort.

Mateus Fernandes to be Shown a Card

Fernandes is yet to pick up his first yellow card of the campaign for West Ham, but has shown signs of aggression across his early appearances for the Hammers. He’s committed eight fouls across his six Premier League matches this season (1.61 per 90).

A trip to Elland Road could produce the perfect environment for Fernandes to pick up his first yellow card for West Ham this season. Leeds are pretty strong in the middle of the park with a trio of Longstaff, Ampadu, and Stach proving difficult for opposition sides to break through. 

Fernandes will inevitably lose physical duels against the likes of Stach and Ampadu, with the Leeds pair more likely to come out on top in these clashes. 

Fernandes picked up eight yellow cards across his 36 Premier League appearances for Southampton last season, whilst averaging 1.42 fouls committed per 90, so his reckless streak has been pretty consistent over the last calendar year.

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📂 Leeds v West Ham Cheat Sheet

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📈 Leeds v West Ham & Tactics

Leeds will be content with their performances so far in the Premier League. They’ve avoided defeat in four of their eight matches with three of these games being at home. Their form at Elland Road was always going to be crucial to any chance they have of staying up this season and Farke will be happy with how his side have performed at home so far.

Leeds’ 2-0 defeat against Burnley at Turf Moor last time out was a blow for the newly promoted side in an early relegation six pointer. Burnley have already beaten both of their fellow promoted sides at home in the Premier League this season so there are early grudge matches being fought and won at the bottom of the Premier League. 

What is clear from the early weeks of the season is that the relegation battle should be more competitive this time around with the promoted sides showing more fight and quality. 

West Ham have been really poor so far this season with their only win coming away from home against Nottingham Forest - another side that find themselves in a turbulent spot. I really like Nuno as a coach but he will find it difficult to change fortunes with this crop of players, West Ham lack any identity and, more worryingly, look really lethargic and not up to the speed of the Premier League.

Their 2-0 defeat against Brentford was the perfect example of the issues that the Hammers face at the moment. This was a Brentford side that had lost all three of their away matches coming into the game at the London Stadium which West Ham allowed the Bees to dominate and generate an xG of 2.37. There was little fightback from West Ham who were toothless for most of the game, leaving Nuno with a real uphill battle to first steady the side and then get them out of the relegation spots.


📔 Leeds v West Ham Formation & Team News

Leeds have been lining up in a 4-3-3 and have been getting quite a lot of joy in this shape, especially in their matches at Elland Road. Farke has made some intriguing changes to the usual structure of a 4-3-3 with Farke opting for Okafor and Aaronsen in the wide areas in recent matches, aside from traditional winger options. 

This makes Leeds harder to breakdown and ensures that they can keep a compact shape when they lose the ball in dangerous areas. Another identifiable aspect of Leeds’ approach is how quickly they look to get balls into the box. They’re averaging 6.30 crosses per game in the Premier League this season which is the second most of any side in the division.

Leeds recently suffered a blow with Noah Okafor picking up an injury and being sidelined for at least a few weeks. This is significant as he’s scored two goals in the Premier League for Leeds already this season in a side that doesn’t have much goal threat. They’re also expected to be without Wilfred Gnonto here who is a longer term absentee.

West Ham lined up in a 4-2-3-1 against Brentford but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a different shape here, possibly a back three, as Nuno attempts to find the best solution for this West Ham side. He needs to make them more difficult to breakdown first, Brentford gained access to the West Ham box far too easily in their 2-0 win over the Hammers.

West Ham will be without Fullkrug for this game which is a blow as he offers a physical presence up front which West Ham don’t really have in his absence. Callum Wilson could lead the line or Nuno could opt for Bowen or Paqueta in the striker role as he did against Brentford.


📊 Leeds v West Ham Key Stats

  • West Ham have conceded the most goals in the Premier League so far this season (18).

  • Leeds have avoided defeat in three of their matches at Elland Road in the Premier League so far.

  • West Ham have only won one of their eight Premier League matches.

  • Leeds have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as Premier League Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got you covered for Saturday's Premier League action, with a Premier League Accumulator, as well as Chelsea v Sunderland Betting Tips, Newcastle v Fulham Betting Tips, Man United v Brighton Bet Builder Tips, and Brentford v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips.

On the continent, there's Napoli v Inter Milan Tips, Dortmund v Koln Predictions, and a whole lot more.

We also have BTTS Tips on-site, as well as Over 2.5 Goals Predictions. You can also check out our Player Shots On Target Tips and Player Score or Assist Betting Tips.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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