Villa’s form has not been good enough to satisfy their top four aspirations of late. A 4-0 battering from Spurs was followed up by a very mediocre performance in the 1-1 draw with West Ham, but don’t let the last couple results blur the vision of the Villans class.

The former was perhaps an unfair scoreline with the first two goals being scored within 3 minutes of each other and the last two following the same pattern but in the depths of second half added time. Villa had plenty of chances to remedy the score but seemingly forgot their shooting boots.

Aston Villa have lost only once in their last seven matches across all competitions, including three league wins from five, and responded brilliantly to that Spurs home loss with a 4-0 smashing of Ajax to send them through to the Europa Conference League quarter-finals.

Villa Park has proved to be a serious fortress this campaign, with Villa picking up 10 wins from 14 outings on home soil, it will no doubt be a tough affair for Wolves.

With both teams in need of a positive result this one will likely be a scrappy affair, but considering their extra bit of class and top-scoring form at home, expect Aston Villa to pick up all three points.

12 of the last 15 home outings for Villa have produced three goals or more, in which Villa have solely scored a whopping 37 goals – a force to be reckoned with at home.

Aside from their blank against Spurs last time out, Villa have struck in each of their previous 26 Premier League home matches and will certainly be able to cause a threat against a leaky Wolves defence. Wolves have conceded at least once in 12 of their 14 away trips so far this campaign but certainly hold their own goal threat when on the road.

Wolves have scored in three of their last four away fixtures in the top-flight, scoring 2 or more on all of those occasions. They have blanked on only five occasions across all fixtures this season and their Saturday hosts are certainly not boasting a watertight defence as they’re without a league clean sheet in seven league matches.

For their seasonal averages, Aston Villa fixtures have witnessed over 2.5 goals 72% of the time, with Wolves following shortly behind with 68%. Both sides are very closely matched again when considering both teams scoring, 69% of games involving Villa and 68% of Wolves’ games.

And for those that like historic angles, both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings between these two and considering their current goal threat, we expect more entertainment here.

There are plenty of goal threats on both sides of this matchup and we have to start with the spearhead of the Villa frontline, Ollie Watkins. The English forward has racked up a very impressive tally of 26 goal contributions this Premier League season with 16 goals and 10 assists putting him first in the league for goal involvements.

Villa’s hitman has hit a little bit of a quiet patch considering his roaring form this season, and is without a goal in his last two league games. However, Watkins netted in three consecutive games before that, picking up five goals. Following his mediocre performance for England in the 1-0 loss to Brazil, we expect him to bounce back in this affair as he looks to hunt down that space in the England Euro 2024 squad.

His goalscoring form can certainly do the talking but what is less obvious is that Watkins has hit the target on 2+ occasions in six of his last eight games in the Premier League. This extends out to hitting the target at least once in 11 of his last 13 across all competitions.

Watkins is creating lots of goalscoring opportunities, averaging 3.09 shots per 90 this season and 1.40 shots on target to the same measure. With three goals in his last five home matches, he’s certainly a man to target in this one.

The second angle for this clash is total shots on target for Aston Villa.

Villa have registered 5+ shots on target in six of their last seven home games across all competitions and have only failed to register this tally on four occasions this season. This includes eight shots on target against Ajax and nine against Manchester United last month.

This selection looks even stronger considering Wolves are conceding an average of 4.46 shots on target per 90 this season, conceding 24 shots on target across their last three games – including 12 against Coventry City two weeks ago. Wolves have faced 4+ shots on target in all of their last four away games and Villa’s attacking threat could certainly do some damage.

Youri Tielmans is expected to keep his spot in the starting lineup in the absence of John McGinn and the Belgian midfielder looks good value to get on the wrong side of the referee on Saturday.

Tielemans’ outing against West Ham last time was fairly eventful, picking up four fouls, which left him in the book and he drew one as well.

Tielemans is also showing a great tendency to be on the other end of the fouls, drawing at least two fouls in four of his last six starts. With the likes of Joao Gomes and Mario Lemina, averaging 2.18 and 1.32 fouls per 90 respectively, lining up in the midfield for Wolves, this could be a good value angle on the Belgian international.

And speaking of Joao Gomes, he is a standout target for fouls in this derby game. The Brazil international is averaging 2.18 fouls per 90 this campaign and has registered 2+ fouls in five of his last seven games, accumulating a total of 16 fouls in that time.

Aston Villa are drawing in an impressive average of 12.40 fouls a game this season and there’s lots of tricksters for the Villans that could draw a foul from Gomes.