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Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona
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Kick Off: Sunday 3rd March at 20:00
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Competition: La Liga
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Watch Live: Viaplay Sports 1 / La Liga TV
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The big Sunday clash in La Liga sees Barcelona travel to the Basque Country to face Athletic Bilbao. The hosts have just qualified for the Copa del Rey final and are locked in a battle for the top four.
It’s been a brilliant season for Ernesto Valverde’s men and the manager will now be aiming to claim victory against one of his former clubs. Athletic Club have a brilliant 10-2-1 home record at the San Mames Stadium this season and no team has scored more home goals in La Liga than the Basque outfit.
Barcelona are going to have their work cut out here. The visitors are unbeaten on their travels but have faced a fairly soft schedule on the road this season. There’s no doubt that this is a significant test but the good news for Barca is that their attacking mojo appears to be back.
After misfiring in front of goal for a large majority of the campaign they’ve now netted 25 times in their last nine La Liga games. Barcelona are slight favourites with the bookmakers but not by a big margin.
Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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🥅 Goals stats: Overs appealing with two strong attacks
Athletic Bilbao are the highest scoring home team in La Liga with 34 goals in 13 games. They have been on fire with the likes of Gorka Guruzeta, Inaki Williams and Nico Williams all scoring and supplying several goals.
They must fancy their chances against a Barcelona defence which has been far from convincing recently. The Blaugrana haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 away games in all competitions and have been far too shaky at the back.
As aforementioned though, Barca have been re-finding their shooting boots of late. The goals have started flowing which is no surprise because their attacking metrics have been strong all season. Barca have the best xG in La Liga (60.95) which is comfortably more than any other team.
In Robert Lewandowski they have the player who has accumulated the most individual xG (14.34) and for large chunks of the campaign he’s been below par. The Polish star has now scored 5 goals in his last 5 games though. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.67 which looks like a great option with two attack minded teams on show.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67
🚩 Corners stats: Look to flag kicks at the San Mames
Both sides concede an average of 3.92 corners per game which is a relatively high number for such strong teams located within the top five positions in La Liga.
Bilbao rack up 5.42 corners per game and Barca a hefty 6.35. The Blaugrana naturally play in their traditional 4-3-3 system and will often be on the front foot. Bilbao operate in a 4-2-3-1 with both Williams’ out wide who will aid their abilities to win corners.
Between them, they average nearly 12 corners per game so let’s play it safe and back over 8.5 at odds of 1.44. This looks very coverable in what should be an offensive game of football.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 8.5 total corners @ 1.40
🛑 Fouls stats: Focus on Bilbao players
Athletic Club average 14.10 fouls per game which is a really high amount. Against a team like Barca then this is a deadly concoction and it makes sense to look at some Bilbao individuals in the foul markets.
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Gorka Guruzeta and Mikel Vesga stand out as serial offenders. To make the value worth it then we must look at backing them to have two or more fouls. Ruiz De Galarreta is 1.50 in that market but looks like a banker to have a dirty game.
Both of the other two players come under strong consideration but let’s stick with the safe play. Considering his position on the field against Frenkie de Jong then it makes sense.
Predictions:
⚽ Inigo Ruiz de Galaretta to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.50
🟨 Cards stats: Back the bookings in the Basque Country
Matches involving Athletic Bilbao average exactly 4.50 cards this season whilst for Barcelona it’s a whopping 5.53. This is La Liga, which is a division known for a high card rate and referees do not have much patience for any petulance.
The referee in charge averages over five cards per game this season and in his career so the natural inclusion is to back over 4.5 cards at 1.60. This should be a high tempo and potentially end to end game with an electric atmosphere. Some of the players might get carried away and there could be bookings for dissent and off the ball incidents.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 4.5 cards @ 1.60
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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