Gem Bet: Man United v Athletic Bilbao

Gem Bet: Man United v Athletic Bilbao

Wednesday 7 May, 20251 min read
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Harry Nye

Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.

💎 Patrick Dorgu to Commit 2+ Fouls @ 3.20

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💎 Gem Bet: Patrick Dorgu to Commit 2+ Fouls (v Athletic Bilbao)

Fixtures for: Thursday 8th May

Man United v Athletic Bilbao

Europa League

20:00

Patrick Dorgu to Commit 2+ Fouls

Patrick Dorgu to commit two or more fouls is a standout value pick at 3.20 with Betfair, especially when compared to prices as short as 1.20 with William Hill. The implied probability disparity is striking - Betfair’s 31.3% vs William Hill’s 83.3% - highlighting how heavily mis-priced this market could be. Despite being just 20 years old, Dorgu has quickly made a name for himself as a physically combative and disciplinary prone wide player. His foul numbers back this up:

  • Averages 1.75 fouls per 90 minutes

  • Committed at least one foul in each of his last seven appearances

  • Hit 2+ fouls in four of those matches

  • Committed two fouls in the reverse fixture

Set to start again on the left of midfield, Dorgu will likely face the tricky Álvaro Djaló, who is drawing two fouls per 90 this season - and an even more aggressive 3.49 per 90 over his last five games. With a European final on the horizon, the stakes are high. Expect Dorgu’s already cynical tendencies to increase as he’s tasked with containing one of Bilbao’s most dangerous attackers. In a game where defensive discipline may waver under pressure, the chances of two or more fouls looks far stronger than the 3.20 price tag suggests.

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