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Gem Bet: Athletic Bilbao v Man United

Gem Bet: Athletic Bilbao v Man United

Wednesday 30 April, 20251 min read
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Harry Nye

Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.

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💎 Leny Yoro to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.91 🔄

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💎 Gem Bet: Leny Yoro to Commit 1+ Fouls 🔄 (v Athletic Bilbao)

Fixtures for: Thursday 1st May

Athletic Bilbao v Man United

Europa League

19:00

Leny Yoro to Commit 1+ Fouls 🔄

Leny Yoro to commit at least one foul is well priced at 1.91 with Paddy Power, offering significant value compared to odds as low as 1.18 elsewhere (implying an 84.7% chance). With United’s current injury situation, Yoro is expected to start at right centre-back. His foul metrics strongly support this pick:

  • Averages 0.9 fouls per 90 this season

  • Has committed at least one foul in nine of his last 11 starts

  • Has committed a foul in 13 of 18 starts this season (72.2%)

Yoro will likely face Athletic’s left-sided attackers, who frequently draw fouls.

  • Nico Williams (LW): 1.64 fouls drawn per 90

  • Jauregizar (LCM): 1.44 fouls drawn per 90

In Europe, he’s been even more aggressive, committing a foul in all five appearances (including one in just 19 minutes against FCSB). His European average sits at 1.21 fouls per 90. With Yoro’s consistent record, this market should be priced closer to 1.38. At 1.91, there’s clear value on offer.

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