The Colts might have lost to the Steelers last week but don’t worry, they should come out on top here. Sitting at the summit of the AFC South they are tied for the best record in the NFL with 7-2 and have been exceptional at times. They believe they have a real chance of winning the Super Bowl, and went all-in before the trade line, trading for Sauce Gardner from the Jets.

Gardner will play his second international game of the season and will instantly improve the Colts secondary. That was important for a defense who ranked 11th in DVOA before the move. It’s the offense where they’re really shining, ranking top in offensive DVOA, a lot of that is based on their ground game, an area that the Falcons are strong against, but in Daniel Jones they have a quarterback who has found a home. All of this is built upon their offensive line, who give them the platform to win, and they should get the victory over a Falcons team with just three wins all season and who have the 10th worst offense in the league, per DVOA.

Last week the world was shocked when Jonathan Taylor didn’t find the endzone. It’s been an incredible season for the Colts running back, who has 14 touchdowns through nine weeks of the season, with 12 coming on the ground and a further two added through the air. He’s been electric and should score here, just as he did when these teams last met, in Week 16 of the 2023 season.

Despite failing to score on Sunday he’s been in sensational form, scoring seven times in the past month. The good news for bettors is that he’s not gone two games without a touchdown this season.

The bookies certainly think that the Colts are going to win this game, as evidence by the fact that they’re 6.5-point favourites. That’s a reasonably big spread and one that I totally agree with. If the Falcons are chasing the game then they’re going to have to do so through the air, which is only going to lead to more passing yards for the quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Penix has had Over 225.5 passing yards in three of his past four games and should do the same again here, especially given that the Colts have been giving up 244.8 passing yards per game, the seventh most in the NFL.

The Colts have been an absolute juggernaut this season, they’re averaging a huge 32.2 points per game, more than any other team in the league. No matter who they play they put up big points with 20 or more points in every game this season.

The Falcons have been in a lot more low scoring games but this isn’t a regular game, this is an international game, and sometimes the rulebook goes out of the window. The line has already risen by three points since opening and with good reason. The Over is 5-3 across the past eight international games.