James Connor has one of the highest ceilings of anyone on the slate this weekend. In 2024, Conner ranked top 5 in missed tackles forced and top 5 in 10+ yard carries. He also had a career high in yards after contact and looked great on film. The coaching staff has continually trusted him and emphasized his role on this team, I don’t see that changing.

When you look at Connor’s production over these last couple of seasons, there is really nothing to complain about. He has carried a heavy load in back-to-back seasons, and he’s rushed for 1,000 yards in each of the last two years with the Cardinals, posting 9 total touchdowns in each over 29 games. He returns the same coaching staff that has displayed full confidence in him since the beginning.

The Saints profile as the worst team in football this year, which means teams are going to constantly be leading and able to run the ball with more ease. Even if the Saints' rush defense turns out to be solid (projected bottom 10 via PFF), I don't think their offense will be able to keep them in games. Trey Benson may get more involved, but I projected 18+ carries for Connor in a good matchup.

I honestly like both Patriots tight ends to start the season against the Las Vegas Raiders. Vrabel has always liked his two tight end sets, and I would expect them to try to establish the run early with the rookie TreVeyon Henderson along with returning starter Rhamondre Stevenson. They will also be facing one of the best rushers in the league in Maxx Crosby. When they’ve faced him in the past, they’ve used more 2 TE sets to block and create more time for the QB.

Henry consistently delivers a high floor, averaging 4.2 receptions per game last season with a strong 72% catch rate. He clearly has a good relationship with quarterback Drake Maye, who I expect to improve in his second season as a starter. The Raiders were bad against tight ends last year and didn’t do much to change that. I like the upside, especially with plenty of questions in that Patriots wide receiver room and his established chemistry with Maye.

Mike Evans is someone I like to back anytime I can get him at plus money in a good matchup. We have one of the highest totals on the slate, and we’ve seen the Buccaneers play in many high-scoring divisional games over these last couple of years.

Mike Evans is most known for his insane streak of 1,000-yard seasons, but he’s also posted 11 and 13 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons over 31 games. His consistency is what’s going to get him into the Hall of Fame, and with a full offseason to rest, I expect him to see a full workload in a good matchup to start the year.

Last year, he only played Atlanta once, but he saw 7 targets and caught 2 touchdowns in a high-scoring affair. In that game, Chris Godwin was the leading pass catcher, but he’s going to miss the first part of the season, along with WR Jalen McMillan. While rookie Emeka Egbuka will step up, Mike Evans is likely to dominate red zone target share once again.

Let’s back another starting running back on a team expected to win fairly easily. The Broncos are big 8.5-point home favorites vs Tennessee this week, with a hefty implied team total of 25.5 points. Cam Ward is a rookie defense facing a lethal secondary led by the best corner in the league. It’s likely the Broncos are going to be able to control the pace of the game and dominate time of possession.

When you look at the Broncos' RB room, Dobbins is expected to be the lead back ahead of rookie RJ Harvey to start the season. While I think the rookie has plenty of potential, especially as a pass catcher, I think Dobbins has the inside track on early down touches. If they play as well as the market expects, the game script should be perfect for Dobbins to get 15+ carries. He’s averaged 4.6, 5.7, and 6.0 YPC, health has been a problem, but he should be a good option early behind a top 5 offensive line.