"With the Saints projected to be huge underdogs, it’s likely we see plenty of Spencer Rattler dropbacks once again this week. With the increased volume I expect him to lock into his top target in Chris Olave, who has been used all over the field. Olave leads the entire league in targets with 37. While he was more of a downfield receiver in the past, when teams are ahead they tend to play conservative 2-high safety shells, meaning trailing teams can just complete easy underneath passes in garbage time.

Chris Olave has posted 7, 6, and 10 catches this season with 13, 10, and 14 targets so far. That kind of elite usage is just too hard to avoid, and it’s pretty clear they are going to be forced to throw, especially since they are playing the best offense in football. Kellen Moore has given Olave a heavy dose of designed targets and I would expect that to continue on Saturday.

The Saints are not even close to the best offense in football, but they are the highest-paced. They are also second in no-huddle rate, further increasing the pace. As long as they keep running so many plays, the volume will make up for the lack of efficiency in the prop market. "

"We backed Juwan Johnson on his first game of the season, and I look forward to going right back in another good matchup. The former WR turned TE has been a huge part of this Saints offense this year, thanks to new head coach Kellen Moore. While Johnson has been a dependable redzone target for the last couple seasons, we really didn’t see his role improve much with the presence of other TE’s like Taysom Hill stealing opportunities. With all of the competition injuried coming into the season, he is the only real tight end threat on this roster.

What has that led to? Elite usage. Juwan Johnson is second among ALL tight ends in targets, with 28. He had a 90% route participation in the first two weeks, and that only dropped with a blowout last week. As long as the starters avoid getting benched, Johnson should have a shot to run a route on almost every drop back, which is pretty rare for TE’s.

He’s the #2 option behind Olave, posting 11, 9, 8 targets with 8, 5, 6 catches for 76, 49, and 51 receiving yards in the first three games of the season. With a gamescript that will likely force them to throw the ball, I expect Johnson to continue to carry a very heavy workload for the Saints. "

"Despite their great defensive success, the Browns have really struggled on offence, particularly in the passing game. Joe Flacco has thrown four interceptions in three games this season, but he’s certainly not afraid to throw the ball. The veteran quarterback is averaging 42 pass attempts per game. Given the strength of the Lions offence, and their status as heavy favourites in this game, I don’t expect this passing volume to decrease.

David Njoku is one beneficiary of this gunslinging mentality, seeing six targets per game. He’s averaging over 44 receiving yards per game since the start of last season, and the Lions have given up the third most receiving yards in that time. Njoku also hasn’t dipped below 37 yards so far this season, despite the emergence of fellow tight end Harold Fannin."

"Despite not signing with the team until the NFL season was already underway, Quinshon Judkins has already taken over the backfield. The rookie has totalled 32 touches, which is more than both Jerome Ford (22) and Dylan Sampson (28), even without playing in week one. His snap share also doubled from week two to week three, and that workload has produced games of 61 and 94 rush yards.

Judkins now gets to face a Detroit Lions defence that is allowing 99 rushing yards per game. Given the strength of the Browns defence, I expect them to keep this game somewhat close, just as they did against Green Bay, which will allow Judkins to keep pounding the rock. The Lions have also allowed the 10th most explosive runs this season, so Judkins could hit this number in just a couple of plays."