Swiatek leads the H2H with Bencic 3-1, with one of those wins coming at Wimbledon.

Admittedly that win was a very tight three-setter back in 2023, but, despite Swiatek being world #1 then and generally being more dominant on tour, she wasn't as impressive at Wimbledon as she has been this week.

Swiatek has won her last three rounds here in straight sets and without requiring a tiebreak. She has found some snap on her forehand, which is skipping up off the turf and pushing her opponents out of position. Bencic has great movement and clean ball striking but not the power game to push Swiatek back off the baseline.

Swiatek has also served really well this tournament, winning the highest percentage of serve points in the tournament.

It is a surprise to see such a large gap between the two players in the way that they have been priced on the aces line. There generally aren’t a big number of aces in either player’s game, Swiatek averages one every four service games on tour in 2025 (0.26 per game), whereas Bencic is down at 0.17 aces per game, so Swiatek is the rightful favourite here.

However, Swiatek has served 5 aces in her opening two matches, but then hasn’t beaten this line of 4.5 since the second round, so her average number of aces per match is well below the line given here.

It is a surprise to see such a large gap between the two players in the way that they have been priced on the aces line. There generally aren’t a big number of aces in either player’s game, Swiatek averages one every four service games on tour in 2025 (0.26 per game), whereas Bencic is down at 0.17 aces per game, so Swiatek is the rightful favourite here.

However, Swiatek has served 5 aces in her opening two matches, but then hasn’t beaten this line of 4.5 since the second round, so her average number of aces per match is well below the line given here.

Bencic isn’t going to serve very many aces either, but there is more than a decent chance that she can stay within two of the Pole. Indeed, Bencic has won this market in three of their four previous meetings, which makes her price of 7.0 to serve the most aces here look fairly huge.

Much of this market also plays into what is happening with the overall score. If one expects one player or the other to dominate the match then the fewer the opportunities to ace.