Inter will be looking to bounce back on Tuesday as they take on a Benfica side that is coming off its second loss of the season in all competitions as well as its first defeat since December 30. Benfica took the lead within 10 minutes only to concede the equalizer at the interval, with Mehdi Taremi giving Porto the lead in the 54th minute and paving the way for a 2-1 win at the Estádio da Luz. Benfica now sit seven points clear of Porto and will be looking to consolidate their advantage on Saturday in a trip to Chaves, but first, they’ll be looking to take care of business against an Inter side that is reeling at the moment and that could be headed for its final days under Inzaghi.

Prior to the defeat, Benfica had won 12 of their last 13 matches, with 11 of them seeing Roger Schmidt’s side enjoy a 2+ goal advantage. Benfica have the best attack (68 goals scored) and the best defense (16 conceded), and as opposed to last year’s quarterfinals, when they lost to Liverpool, they will enter this match as the favorites. They boast the two top scorers in Portugal with ex-Inter man João Mário and Gonçalo Ramos with 17 goals whilst Alejandro Grimaldo (8) and João Mário (6) sit second and third in the league’s assist charts. Benfica have more than enough quality in attack to trouble an Inter side that has not kept a single clean sheet in a month, whilst their defensive record is among the best in Europe. Despite missing two starters in Alexander Bah and Nicolás Otamendi, they will field a strong back four of Gilberto, Morato, António Silva, and Grimaldo with Florentino Luís and Chiquinho operating in midfield whilst João Mário, Rafa Silva, Fredrik Aursnes and Gonçalo Ramos will be the front four.

Inter’s top scorer in Serie A is Lautaro Martínez (14), followed by Edin Džeko (7), Nicolò Barella (5), Federico Dimarco, Henrik Mkhitaryan, Romelu Lukaku and Joaquín Correa (3), whilst Džeko (3) and Lukaku (2) are their two top scorers in the Champions League. Martínez has scored just once in Europe’s top competition this season, his same exact tally from 2020/21 and 2021/22. The Argentine has failed to find the back of the net since March 5, and with El Toro struggling to break his duck, I don’t think Inter will have the cutting edge in attack to exploit Benfica’s absences at the back. Expect Benfica to come away with at least a one-goal advantage as they prepare for next Wednesday’s trip to the San Siro.

Apart from their draw in Porto to secure passage to the Champions League quarter-finals, Inter have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven matches – it is little coincidence that their last clean sheet coincided with the last appearance for Milan Škriniar, who has missed the past month with injury and looks set to join Paris Saint-Germain on a free transfer. Matteo Darmian will deputize alongside Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni in the back three ahead of André Onana, whilst Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco will likely operate as the wingbacks, with Marcelo Brozović, Barella, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan playing in midfield.

I’m expecting João Mário, Gonçalo Ramos, Rafa Silva and co. to exploit Inter’s leaky backline and lack of pace in defending the counter, and I’m expecting them to put plenty of pressure on Darmian who has struggled to adapt to an unconventional role under Inzaghi. On the other hand, whilst I think Benfica should have enough stability at the back to progress with a victory, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them concede. After beginning the season as the starter, Morato was sidelined due to injury in August and lost his place in the team – he has made just two appearances in the league this year, a 90-minute appearance against Santa Clara on January 21 and a 15-minute appearance against Vitória on March 18. He may show some signs of rustiness and end up making a costly error, one that could be exploited by Džeko, Martínez, or Lukaku, the latter of whom is likely to come off the bench and attempt to replicate his impact against Porto, when he changed the game and scored a late winner. Nicolás Otamendi is not only Benfica’s captain – he’s also an experienced leader and a gritty, no-nonsense warrior whose absence could be felt by Benfica at the Luz. Expect a handful of goals in the first leg in Lisbon.

There are few strikers in Europe who find themselves in better form at the moment than Benfica’s Portuguese striker Gonçalo Ramos. The 21-year-old has filled Darwin Núñez’s void in attack in spectacular fashion, opening the year with a brace against Sporting, a goal against Santa Clara and a goal against Boavista. He began March with a brace against Famalicão, following that up with a brace and an assist against Club Brugge to secure a 7-1 aggregate victory, a goal and an assist against Vitória and a goal against Rio Ave.

He came close to finding the back of the net against Porto, forcing an own goal from Diogo Costa with a well-placed header to open the scoring early on, and he not only sits as the joint-top scorer in Portugal, but he is averaging nearly a goal contribution every game with 25 goals and 11 assists in 38 appearances in all competitions. I’m expecting him to get back to the score sheet and exploit an Inter side that is struggling to keep a clean sheet at the moment.

Marcelo Brozović is expected to wear the captain’s armband and hold down the fort as the defensive midfielder in Inter’s central trio, and he’ll have his hands full as he looks to nullify the counter-attacking threat of Rafa Silva, Gonçalo Ramos, João Mário and more. The Croatian has received a booking in three of his last four matches, the exception being a 28-minute cameo on Friday against Salernitana.

This match and his 17-minute cameo against Porto are the only occasions in the last eight matches where Brozović has not received a foul – the last time that Brozović started a match without receiving a foul was September 13 in a 2-0 win at Viktoria Plzeň. Brozović will be tasked with cleaning up the danger and stopping the counter, and I’m expecting him to give away at least one foul in what should be an end-to-end match in the Portuguese capital.