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Chelsea v Man City
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Kick Off: Sunday 12th November at 16:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
After what will likely be deemed as one of the games of the season seeing Chelsea’s win over Spurs last week, they will know that there is still much room for improvement before their matchup with Manchester City, despite the thumping derby win.
Chelsea go into this game in horrible form at Stamford Bridge and there will likely be doubt creeping into Chelsea fans’ minds already about turning that around this week. Chelsea have won just one of their last 13 league games at the Bridge. However, Pochettino’s boys showed real character and persistence in their 4-1 win last week in a game that could’ve gotten away from them very quickly, even after the red cards. Big positives to take for the Blues.
Man City have also had a strong week of performances after hitting Bournemouth for six before sealing their place in the Champions League knockout stages with two games to spare. Although life in the Premier League always throws curveballs, Guardiola’s side had a rare reality check recently after losing two consecutive league games for the first time since 2018. With one win in three league fixtures and their hosts glowing after recent performances, this could still be a slippery fixture for the champions.
This feature will break down our Chelsea v Man City Cheat Sheet, highlighting any key markets where we see great value in to help craft your bet builders – small and big odds! Let’s jump right into the breakdown.
Chelsea v Man City Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
The research in this piece has been pulled together using the Chelsea v Man City Cheat Sheet. There’s a wide range of stats to choose from, be it player passes or team corners. There are also referee statistics in the middle of the sheet too.
You’re encouraged to use the Cheat Sheet in any way that you want. However, a brief example could be to match up the highest fouls committed by Chelsea to the highest fouls drawn for Man City.
You can find Chelsea v Man City stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
Chelsea v Man City stats: A tough history for the Blues against the Citizens
Over recent seasons, this fixture has caused nothing but pain for Chelsea seeing Guardiola’s side claim six consecutive victories. Man City have won 1-0 in each of the past four Premier League meetings, a traditionally low-scoring affair. The last time this game saw over 2.5 goals in the Premier League was in May 2021 with a 2-1 victory for Chelsea, Thomas Tuchel did love his games against City.
To add to their woes, Chelsea have not scored against Man City in their previous six meetings. The last time Chelsea put the ball in the net against Sunday’s visitors was back in May 2021 when they postponed Man City’s celebration of winning their first Champions League title, with the Blues claiming their second Champions League trophy after a slick finish from Kai Havertz. Can they channel some of that energy on Sunday?
Speaking of lack of goals, Chelsea have failed to score in three of their last four home league games and this could leave Man City licking their lips at 3 points this Sunday. Man City are having no such problems after a very dominant 6-1 victory over a struggling Bournemouth side, now ranking them as the highest-scoring side in the Premier League, averaging 2.55 goals per game compared to Chelsea’s 1.55.
Chelsea’s four goals last week have definitely remedied some of their attacking performances but still remain six goals short of any of the current top-seven sides. Registering an xG of 23.29 so far this season, the fourth highest in the league narrowly behind their Sunday visitors. However, the Blues are in second place for the most big chances missed with 22, which will remain a worrying stat for Pochettino, especially against such a strong defence this weekend.
The Blues are looking to avoid five consecutive league defeats against a single opponent since a run of seven at the hands of Blackburn between 1993 and 1996. With City enjoying their best start to a Premier League season since 2018-19, this could be a tricky feat for the hosts in a cagey affair.
Predictions:
🏆 Man City to win @ 1.70
🚩 Corner stats: Corners to rain down at Stamford Bridge
Man City away fixtures have been filled with corners this year seeing an average of 12.17 corners per game, a few higher than the Premier League average of 10.71. Of these away games, Pep’s side have registered some impressive totals: 12 (v Bournemouth), 12 (v Man Utd), 11 (v West Ham), 12 (v Sheffield Utd) and 6 (v Wolves), averaging an impressive 8.33 corners away from home this season.
Pep’s men have won six corner match bets from their eleven fixtures this season, only losing two, both very narrowly against Arsenal, the kings of corners this season, and away at Burnley on the first game of the season.
Games at Stamford Bridge this season are seeing 10.17 corners per game so we could certainly be in for a corner feast this Sunday. Chelsea are conceding 4.27 corners a game just shy of their corners-taken numbers at 5.45. Man City and Chelsea sit second and seventh, for the most corners taken in the Premier League this year, having taken 77 and 60 respectively.
Chelsea have also won six corner match bets this season but have lost the remaining five by quite a large margin on each occasion so this will undoubtedly be an exciting selection to watch unfold.
There are multiple angles to tackle this market. Our suggestion would be for Man City to take five corners at the price of 1.50 or if you wanted a slightly higher odds selection, you can add any additional corner to boost the odds to 2.0. You could consider a Man City corner bet at 1.50 so you don’t have to rely on a storm of corners. Chelsea also love a corner or two at home so total corners could be another approach.
Predictions:
🚩 Over 4.5 Man City corners @ 1.50
🚩 Over 5.5 Man City corners @ 2.00
🚩 Man City corner match bet @ 1.50
🚩 Over 8.5 total corners @ 1.53
🎯 Shooting stats: Jackson and Haaland the bagsmen
Nicolas Jackson was on form against Spurs, picking up his first Premier League hattrick and silencing some of the doubters who have questioned his ability to play at the top level. Despite netting three goals, Jackson could’ve had five or six but his shooting boots escaped him once again. The Chelsea man sits fourth in the league for most big chances missed with eight so there’s no doubt he can get into those key positions to cause danger.
Jackson is picking up an average of 3.56 shots on goal per 90 with 1.54 of those hitting the target – the best numbers in the squad across both categories. With his confidence in front of goal perhaps seeing a slight boost after last week, his price of 1.73 to have one shot on target could prove a worthy valuable selection this week. A ‘safer’ angle, despite its higher price, would be for Jackson to have two shots on goal priced at 1.83. He’s a very trigger-happy striker with accuracy not always his strong suit so this could be considered against such a strong defence if he decides to let fly when he sees a glimpse at goal. Man City are conceding 3.73 shots on target per game so there is still a decent opportunity here for this market.
Raheem Sterling has arguably been the biggest danger for Chelsea this year, consistently showing the intent to take on the opposition and encourage attacking progression in this side. The England international is averaging 2.20 shots on goal per 90 but is certainly struggling with getting those on target consistently having only struck 0.70 shots on target per 90. Sterling will be keen to inspire his side’s first goal against his former club in six meetings, so a price of 1.20 for Sterling to have one shot looks decent value.
After his blank against Bournemouth, Erling Haaland is still chasing Andy Cole’s record for the fewest games played to reach 50 Premier League goals. With 18 games left to score 3 goals, time is definitely on his side, but with Chelsea being one of the very few Premier League teams the Norwegian hasn’t scored against, he’ll be hungry to scratch off their name on his list. Netting two goals midweek in the Champions League, it seems his form has returned.
Haaland is averaging 3.76 shots on goal per 90 in the Premier League seeing 1.93 of those hitting the target. His price of 1.80 to have two shots on target could certainly be of value. An anytime scorer market at 1.91 could also be a good approach considering his average of 1.06 goals per 90 this season in the league. Can Chelsea keep the robot at bay for 90 minutes once more?
Predictions:
🎯 Nicolas Jackson to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.73
🚀 Nicolas Jackson to have 2+ shots @ 1.83
🚀 Raheem Sterling to have 1+ shots @ 1.20
🎯 Erling Haaland to have 2+ shot on target @ 1.80
🎯 Erling Haaland to score anytime @ 1.91
🛑 Fouls stats: More bookings to come for the hosts
Chelsea have had a fair share of disciplinary issues this season as they sit first in the league for receiving the most yellow cards at 35 which is spread amongst an impressive 17 offenders. This did include five yellows against Spurs last week and if this fixture gets similarly cagey at any point, perhaps we could expect some more bookings for the Blues as patience runs thin.
Manchester City are seeing their opponents average 3.36 bookings per 90 minutes, drawing in 11.00 fouls in that time. Chelsea are a key culprit in both of those categories, averaging 3.18 bookings and committing 11.60 fouls per 90 – a true matchup of strengths and weaknesses in the disciplinary markets.
There are a few ways to tackle these markets. The safest is for Chelsea to commit 11 fouls against Manchester City. A tough midfield battle awaits the Blues and with key foulers like Enzo Fernandez (1.19 per 90), Moises Caicedo (1.77 per 90), and Conor Gallagher (2.00 per 90), there could be lots of trips and kicks on Sunday to slow down City’s quick progression into attack. Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku look like the dangers here drawing in 1.85 and 2.73 fouls per 90, respectively.
The second approach is for Chelsea to receive three cards priced at 1.57. There’s a clear love for cards across the Chelsea starting eleven and Man City’s tendency to draw in fouls and get opposition players booked cannot be snuffed at here. Chelsea committed a crazy 21 fouls against Spurs last week and with another tricky fixture this week, it could get spicy. This selection has been successful in 5 of their last 7 Premier League games with half of those games exceeding this count.
The final angle is for Chelsea to receive the most cards. Their visitors only average 1.82 bookings from 8.36 fouls per 90 and have proven their composure in these games year after year.
Man City have been a fairly disciplined side this year having only picked up 20 yellow cards this season in the league, 15 less than their Sunday hosts.
Their top fouler is Rodri with 12 fouls and has picked up 3 yellows and a red card in that time. This midfield battle is a tricky one to call. Man City are infamous for their ability to dominate the ball and control the game, but Chelsea’s midfield have certainly shown promise in recent weeks, showing composure and confidence in moving the ball forward and drawing in fouls. This could result in the Spaniard having to assert himself on Sunday and put in a few challenges.
With the likes of Raheem Sterling, Enzo Fernandez, and Conor Gallagher all drawing in 2.00, 1.61 and 1.43 fouls respectively, there is certainly an opportunity for a foul of two from the City defensive midfielder. Rodri is picking up 1.48 fouls per 90 minutes and if Chelsea’s tricky feet make an appearance on Sunday, this can cause trouble.
Predictions:
🛑 Chelsea to commit 11 or more fouls @ 1.53
🟨 Chelsea over 2.5 cards @ 1.57
🟨 Chelsea to receive the most cards @ 1.80
🛑 Rodri to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17
🛑 Rodri to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.91
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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