The Champions League is back again. After a gruelling international break, European football returns as Benfica host Liverpool in the first leg of the quarterfinals of the Champions League. With Liverpool being dealt an ‘easier’ draw compared to the teams that are left in the competition, The Reds will be hoping that their electric league form will continue into Europe, as they look to get the better of a Benfica team that aren’t quite challenging for their league title.
Benfica have found themselves in the quarterfinals for the first time since 2016, where they lost to Bayern Munich in that campaign. Benfica have never advanced past this stage of the competition in its current format, as they won the European Cup back in the 1960/61 and 1961/62 seasons. They have had a mixed journey during their current campaign, as their overall record consists of three wins, three draws and two losses. A notable result is when they beat Barcelona in the group stage, which contributed to help knock the Catalans out. Benfica beat Ajax 3-2 on aggregate in the Round of 16, which has set up this tie with Liverpool.
Liverpool are storming this year’s Champions League campaign. Their record includes seven wins and only one loss. Storming through the group stage without dropping any points, they came up against Italian Champions Inter Milan in the Round of 16, eventually running out 2-1 winners on aggregate. Despite losing in the second leg, it wasn’t enough to stop Liverpool advancing and setting up a nice trip to Portugal for the quarterfinals. Liverpool have won the competition six times and will be believing that they can go all the way again this season.
A notable clash between these two sides in the past, is when Benfica knocked Liverpool out in the Round of 16 of this competition in 2006, where Liverpool were the current holders at the time. Whilst Liverpool enter this tie in sparkling form, Benfica lost at the weekend which ended a seven-game unbeaten run. With Liverpool emerging as favourites for this tie, Benfica may struggle but should certainly not be ruled out to create an upset.
Have a look at my bet builder selections below, as well as the Cheat Sheet, as the first legs of the Champions League quarter finals get underway.
Benfica v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 Goals
Benfica’s goalscoring form throughout the season mixed with Liverpool’s Champions League scoring rates this campaign spells out a fixture that will include a handful of goals, which is why I’m backing over 2.5 goals in the match.
In this current Champions League campaign, Liverpool have scored an average of 2.38 goals per match and conceded 0.88, which promises a good chance of action. Benfica’s record in the Champions League is an average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded. Liverpool have a more favourable record here, but even if they run away with the game, I expect Benfica to pose a serious attacking threat. With Liverpool only failing to score in one game in the Champions League this year, it will be a very unlikely event that they won’t be able to find the back of the net on Tuesday night.
Benfica have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches in the league, showing a consistency for action during their fixtures. Not all of these goals always go in their favour, as they have also conceded in eight of their last nine matches as well. This bodes well for a Liverpool side that have scored in their last 11 league games, and who have a good goalscoring record in Europe this season.
Liverpool have scored 16 goals in their last six league games, showing their recent consistency for scoring on multiple occasions. This is a promising stat coming into this tie against Benfica, as the Portuguese side have shown a serious struggle to keep goals out. However, with Benfica scoring in their last 20 consecutive league games, the chance that they get on the scoresheet should not be ruled out.
With Benfica producing some very questionable defending in their previous league fixture against Braga at the weekend, this will excite the Liverpool players, as this provides them with a prospect of capitalising on their seemingly unstoppable form to make the most of some weak Benfica defending.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals
Diogo Jota to Score Anytime
Looking at where Liverpool’s main attacking threat will come from, Diogo Jota is a man in form that is thriving this season, scoring an impressive 14 goals in the league so far. His impressive form has helped him cement his place in the Liverpool starting lineup and is making himself a player that the squad depends on, during fixtures where some quality is required to make a difference. With Liverpool pushing for the title, Jota’s goal involvements will prove vital in pushing Man City to the limit. So, because of his current form, I’m backing him to get on the scoresheet.
Scoring at the weekend on the return from international football, Jota has started the final stretch till the end of the season in promising form. In the league so far this season, Jota averages 3.52 shots per match, diverting an average of 1.32 shots per game on target. This shows that he is always in the thick of the action, as he continuously proves to be a strong attacking threat in this Liverpool side. Always looking to put himself in the right place at the right time, Jota has capitalised on the chances that he is provided, in order to frequently put the ball in the back of the net. With Benfica producing some incredibly questionable defending in their previous fixture, Jota can thrive as he will aim to make darting runs through the channels, and around at the back post so that he can maximise his scoring opportunities. The fact that Braga were able to slice through the Benfica defence will benefit Jota, as his style of play will be exploited by Liverpool if Benfica continue their poor defending form.
With 0.68 goals per game, this highlights just how heavily Jota has been involved in Liverpool’s goals throughout the season, and how often he produces golden performances. Being a Portuguese international, he has experience playing against Benfica as he has previously played for Pacos and Porto. With his knowledge of the Portuguese league and style of play, he should be able to use this to his advantage on Tuesday night to disturb the Benfica defence.
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Prediction: Diogo Jota to Score Anytime
Julian Weigl to be Shown a Card
Jesus Gil Manzana is the Spanish referee in charge of this fixture. In his league matches, he averages a total of five yellow cards issued per game. With the likelihood of yellow cards being distributed at an easier rate that both sides may be used to in their domestic leagues, I’ve had a look at who I think will be most plausible to be booked, landing on Julian Weigl.
Weigl has picked up six yellow cards so far this season, as he commits an average of 1.97 fouls per game. Weigl will have a tough task on his hands where he will have to deal with players such as Diaz, Mane, Jota and Salah. Looking at Benfica’s recent fixtures, it is apparent that their defending is an obvious weakness in their game. With a flourishing Liverpool attack primed and ready to take advantage of this, Weigl may be required to increase his defensive responsibilities. In Benfica’s game against Braga, the gaps in their defence, poor positioning, and inability to deal with balls into the box was an issue. With an immensely talented Liverpool squad looking to take advantage of this, it won’t take them many chances to put Benfica out of their misery due to their clinical attackers. So, in order to keep Liverpool out and reinforce the defence as best as they can, Weigl will be one of the players required to help out at the back. With his yellow card rate so far this season, as well as picking up some bookings fairly recently, he is my pick to end up in the book.
With Benfica conceding in eight of their last nine games, this reinforces the task that the defence will have against Liverpool, and why Weigl helping out in defence will be a necessity if Benfica want to maximise their chance of remaining in the Champions league. With Weigl playing 22.8 full 90 minutes out of the 23 games in the league that he has started, he has proven himself as a reliable asset of this team, which is why he will be depended on to provide a huge performance against Liverpool.
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Prediction: Julian Weigl to be Shown a Card
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Benfica v Liverpool Predicted Line-ups
Benfica predicted XI (4-4-2) : Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Silva, Mario, Weigl, Everton; Nunez, Yaremchuk
Liverpool predicted XI (4-3-3) : Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago; Jota, Mane, Diaz
Benfica v Liverpool Cheat Sheet
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Benfica v Liverpool in the Champions League
📅 When is Benfica v Liverpool? / Tuesday, 5th April 2022, 20:00
🏟 Where is Benfica v Liverpool? / Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (Lisbon)
📺 What TV channel is Benfica v Liverpool on? / BT Sport 3
🟨 …And who is the referee for Benfica v Liverpool? / Jesus Gil Manzano 🇪🇸
