These are two of the more pragmatic managers in Europe, but the context surrounding this fixture should result in a more entertaining affair than we would otherwise see between Antonio Conte and Jose Mourinho.

Benfica have won just one of their five matches in the Champions League this term, with this win coming against Ajax on the road last time out. Benfica will be hoping for a change of fortune at home having lost both of their home matches in the Champions League in the process, with BTTS landing in one of those games.

Napoli have had similar problems on the road, losing both of their away matches in the Champions League this season. Conte’s side have conceded eight goals across those games, with six of those being conceded against PSV in a damning 6-2 defeat for the Scudetto holders. 

Conte has never quite been able to crack the Champions League, having not got past the quarter-final stage as a manager, and that record could offer a slight edge to Benfica here. Both sides have seen BTTS in each of their last two matches ahead of this clash, setting up what should be quite an even affair between two sides that desperately need a win to keep their Champions League hopes alive.

Benfica’s aggression levels have definitely risen under Jose Mourinho, and this contest could bring out the extreme side of that, with both sides desperately needing a win for their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Benfica have picked up nine cards across their five matches in the Champions League this term. Meanwhile, Napoli have managed to draw 2+ cards from their opponents in two of their five games in the Champions League, including their most recent away assignment, as they lost 6-2 to PSV.

I anticipate the general card numbers in the Champions League increasing in the final few weeks of the league phase, as sides start to become more aware of what they need to do to qualify. Benfica have plenty of candidates to pick up bookings here, with the midfield duo of Rios and Barrenchea standing out - as well as both fullbacks. Napoli play in a 3-4-3 shape, which will often leave Benfica’s fullbacks outnumbered.

Rasmus Hojlund has found his feet after a turbulent spell at Man United, with the 22-year-old netting two goals across his four appearances in the Champions League this term. He’s had eight shots across these matches (2.21 per 90), with four of these efforts finding the target (1.10 per 90).

It’s easy to see that his confidence is back when you watch him play. I always thought that the criticism aimed at him when he was at United was really harsh. There’s a million issues at Man United, and pinning them all on a young striker who was still adapting to the Premier League is pretty ridiculous.

Hojlund netted a brace against Juventus last time out in his best performance for Napoli so far. He had three shots on target in the game, and has managed eight shots on target across his 10 appearances in Serie A this season (0.95 per 90). This isn’t that notable, but look a bit deeper and see that 80% of the total efforts that Hojlund has had in Serie A have found the target, a strong accuracy rate.

Pavlidis has been flying for Benfica in Liga Portugal, with 10 goals across his 13 appearances. He’s had 40 shots across these games (3.32 per 90), with 21 of these efforts finding the target (1.74 per 90).

He hasn’t been offered the same level of service in the Champions League, with 10 shots across his five appearances in the competition (2.05 per 90). Only two of these efforts have found the target, but Pavlidis’ record domestically suggests that he’s capable of a much better conversion rate from the number of shots he’s taken in the Champions League.

This is a must win game for Benfica, with this urgency likely to see Pavlidis match his shot average for the season. He should be afforded the opportunity to be more clinical here, with Napoli losing both of their away matches in the Champions League this term, conceding 16 shots on target across these matches, against PSV and Man City.