I’m expecting Benfica to come away with a victory to put the title race to bed – Roger Schmidt’s side have far too much firepower for a Porto side that has been unable to keep pace thus far, falling 10 points behind after drawing 0-0 at Braga before eking out a 1-0 win at home against Portimonense at the weekend. Roger Schmidt’s side also secured a narrow 1-0 win against Rio Ave at the weekend, but apart from that match, they have scored two or more goals in 13 of their last 14 games, enjoying a two-goal margin of victory on 12 occasions. Gonçalo Ramos and João Mário have emerged as two vital cogs in attack with the Portuguese duo sharing first place in the top scorers race in the Primeira with 17 goals, with João Mário’s 6 assists only bettered by Sporting’s Pote (7) and Benfica left-back Alex Grimaldo (8), who has formed a stellar partnership in defense alongside Alexander Bah, António Silva, Nicolás Otamendi and goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos.

Benfica not only have the best attack in Portugal with 67 goals scored but the best defense with 14 conceded, and it’s thanks in large part to the stellar form of Florentino Luís, who has returned from futile loans at Monaco and Getafe and emerged as the defensive midfield linchpin ahead of the back four. It remains to be seen whether Schmidt decides to partner Florentino with Chiquinho or Fredrik Aursnes, but I’d expect Aursnes to play alongside Florentino with Ramos playing ahead of João Mário, Rafa Silva and David Neres. Benfica have more than enough firepower to cut apart a Porto defense that has been leaky on multiple occasions this season, whilst they should have enough defensive solidity to counteract a Porto side that has scored once in their last three games.

Both teams secured a 1-0 victory at the weekend with Fábio Cardoso opening the scoring within a half-hour for Porto and Portimonense falling to 10 men after 71 minutes, whilst Benfica took the lead after the break via Gonçalo Ramos and held on for the victory. The last two times these sides met, Porto secured a 1-0 win in Lisbon via a last-second goal from Zaidu Sanusi whilst Benfica won 1-0 in Porto via a 72nd-minute goal from Rafa Silva, with the hosts falling to 10 men after 27 minutes as Stephen Eustáquio saw red.

Benfica will be aware that a draw will see them enter the final seven matches of the season with a 10-point advantage over Porto, whilst Porto enter the match on the back of a low-scoring run of form to start the year including a 0-0 draw to Casa Pia, 1-0 wins against Vitória and Rio Ave, 2-0 wins against Marítimo, Vizela and Sporting in the Taça da Liga Final, ending March with a 0-0 draw to Inter and elimination from the Champions League and a 0-0 draw against Braga. I’m expecting a fairly low-scoring match-up between Porto and Benfica, who will likely be conserving some energy for Tuesday’s visit from Inter and who may be more focused on preventing Porto from finding a winner than anything else. Four of the last five league matches between Porto and Benfica have featured under 2.5 goals, and I’m expecting something similar on Friday.

With the exception of Benfica’s 19-year-old phenom António Silva, both center-back pairings will feature weathered veterans who have been around the block and know when it’s time to step in and make a cynical tackle in order to stop a counter from developing. Iván Marcano (35) will likely partner captain Pepe (40) in defense, the ex-Real Madrid man set to return to action for the first time since March 10, whilst Nicolás Otamendi (35) will wear the armband for Benfica and partner Silva. It is the second time that Pepe has missed a significant portion of time due to injury this season, and it could see him struggle to keep up with Gonçalo Ramos and João Mário, the two top scorers in the league, as well as David Neres and Rafa Silva, and decide to lunge into a dangerous foul and pick up a booking.

Pepe got booked within 41 minutes of Porto’s 1-0 win at Vitória on January 21, and one week later, he was cautioned within 63 minutes of their 2-0 win against Sporting in the Taça da Liga Final. He picked up bookings in two of his last three games before missing the next month with a leg injury, but it seems that he will return to the team for a must-win match for Sérgio Conceição’s side. This is a high-intensity, high-emotional battle that could see Pepe get drawn into violent skirmishes with opponents or lunge into dangerous tackles, and I think there’s a good chance we could see the 40-year-old pick up a third booking in four games.