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Birmingham v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips – 2x Bet Builders 4/1 & 14/1

Birmingham v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips – 2x Bet Builders 4/1 & 14/1

Friday 7 February, 20251 min read
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James O'Rourke

Your typical football buff. Like most, it all started out on Championship Manager! On a more professional level I have worked in various sports analytic roles since 2014, including as a research, tactical and betting analyst.

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Birmingham v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips

We've crafted two bet builders for the match at 4/1 and 14/1. We also have further in-depth coverage of this game in our Birmingham v Newcastle Betting Preview.

4/1 Birmingham v Newcastle Bet Builder Level 1

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14/1 Birmingham v Newcastle Bet Builder Level 2

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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip

🏆 Newcastle to Win

📈 Odds: 1.53

More often than not, a Premier League side would defeat a League One team in any 1-off game. The fact Birmingham are on a lengthy unbeaten run may raise hopes of a shock, but they’ve built that over a much lower level. This is a Newcastle side fighting for a Champions League place in the Premier League. The club overall is on a real high having secured a Carabao Cup final place. There is also a strong argument to say this game is more important to Newcastle than Birmingham. The Magpies have placed a big priority on the cups in recent years on a count of the desperation from the fans to secure a long-awaited trophy. For Birmingham, this is a bonus, and winning promotion is their priority, and perhaps a cup run could be an unwanted distraction. It also was not so long ago that Newcastle were on a 9-game winning run in all competitions. They’ve had a couple of league losses recently, but all that has been forgotten about following the Arsenal win on Wednesday. Eddie Howe will likely rotate, but he’ll have the big-hitters on the bench if needed, so they should be fine.

🥅 Under 3.5 Goals

📈 Odds: 1.57

The expectation is for Newcastle to get the job done in the end. However, that is not to say this will be as easy as the separation in leagues may suggest. Birmingham may be a League One club, but only in name. They have had a major financial advantage over practically every other League One club, to the point where promotion appeared inevitable before the season even began. They have many Championship quality players, meaning this should be a tighter game than expected. Birmingham’s matches have not been full of goals across the campaign. They play a very controlled style, designed to keep the ball and reduce the threat of the opposition, which can reduce the likelihood of too many goals. The Blues are 18 unbeaten in all competitions, and every 1 of those contained under 3.5 goals. 2 thirds of Newcastle’s Premier League encounters over the campaign have featured 3 goals or less. They are also likely to rotate to a degree, which is tough given they have had some injuries around the squad. That is another factor which will bring these teams closer together, however the away side should still have the edge.

🛑 Christoph Klarer to Commit 1+ Fouls 🔄

📈 Odds: 1.33

Klarer is undoubtedly a major part of Birmingham’s defence. His impact is also a strong reason for their impressive defensive record. Truthfully, he shouldn’t be playing in League One, so he’ll relish the clash with Premier League Newcastle to try as it is an opportunity for him to impress. He is the type that will perhaps be a little too keen, as he has been known to commit a few fouls. He has committed a foul in each of his last 10 league appearances. The Austrian also tops the Birmingham squad rankings in relation to most yellow cards received in league action. Considering this has come when facing League One players, he will face a much sterner test against forwards from the top-flight. Therefore, he rates a good candidate to attract the attention of the referee.

🚩 Newcastle Corner Match Bet

📈 Odds: 1.33

Newcastle should be the team really controlling this match more often than not. Birmingham will be competitive, but are likely to be doing more defending than attacking over the course of 90 minutes. Eddie Howe’s side often look to work the ball into wide areas anyway and are not afraid to try and get crosses into the box. This is a natural way to possibly earn a few corners. United do average 5.79 corners per Premier League game this season, which is a solid amount. We would suspect they achieve more against a side from a few leagues below, or at least have the capability to do so. Birmingham don’t tend to concede many in their League One battles, but they, of course, don’t play a quality side like Newcastle every week. Tactically they’ll have to make changes they aren’t used to, which will take something away from them offensively.

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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip

⏱️ Half Time Result - The Draw

📈 Odds: 2.40

Birmingham are unbeaten in 18 games in league and cup, and that cannot be ignored. For all that it is against sides of a much lower level than Newcastle, it does demonstrate a confidence that they will look to take into this match. They can be expected to be, at the very least, competitive here. They are underdogs, a tag which they should like given they are favourites to win every League One match they play. Also, with Newcastle likely to rotate in some areas, it may take a little time for them to settle into their usual groove. There will be a strong determination from the hosts to be hard to break down. Only 3 other League One clubs have kept more clean sheets than them in league action, so they know how to be stubborn when they have to. The difference here is that they’ll have to concentrate much more defensively knowing any errors will be punished, which may not be the case in a normal league game. Playing in this manner should see them through to half time.

🩹 Tomoki Iwata to be Fouled 1+ Times 🔄

📈 Odds: 1.91

Although Chris Davies’ side will have to make some tactical alterations here, the basis of their game is not expected to be too different when in possession. They’ll try to build from the back and progress through the thirds when possible. Therefore, Iwata should see plenty of the ball from his midfield axis position, when receiving from the defence. He shall do so under likely big pressure. Therefore, he is a good candidate to be fouled, knowing he will often be pressed and it’ll take just 1 misjudged challenge to commit an offence from a Newcastle player. The Japanese international has form in the book with regards to being on the receiving end of opposing tackles, certainly recently. He has drawn a foul in each of his last 4 League One appearances, an average of 1.50 per game in this period. Iwata is a high level player and is another that is far too good to be playing in League One. That means he won’t be afraid to demand the ball, even under pressure. Newcastle are a high pressing side and will look to make life uncomfortable for Birmingham, but they won’t get it right all of the time.

🎯 Lewis Miley to have 1+ Shots on Target 🔄

📈 Odds: 2.40

There is a good chance Miley will be brought into the team for this cup tie. He was in the last round of the FA Cup when Newcastle faced Bromley of League Two. During that contest, which was the last match he started, he recorded a shot on target, which resulted in a goal. It was also the only time this season he has played the full match. He’ll add a freshness to the side and will be eager to make an impression, even more so with a cup final coming up next month. Although he has struggled for regular Premier League minutes, he has shown before that he is definitely a talent. In a match such as this, he should be able to showcase something closer to his best ability. Reason being, Newcastle should see plenty of the ball and have multiple attacking opportunities.

🛑 Sean Longstaff to Commit 1+ Fouls 🔄

📈 Odds: 1.44

Longstaff is another individual expected to be given a starting berth here. It would provide a chance to rest 1 of Bruno Guimarães or Sandro Tonali in central midfield. That opens the door for the local 27-year-old to be recalled. Longstaff, like Miley, hasn’t started a game since the Bromley match in the FA Cup Third Round, and Howe may feel as though he has to keep him in the cup team for now. He has started 9 games all season in all competitions, fouling in 8 of those appearances. That fact alone is everything you need to know about Longstaff, who is ultra-committed every time he pulls on the black and white jersey. Birmingham will also be quite brave when they do get the chance to play. Newcastle should see most of the ball but this is how the Blues play in their every game league contest. Therefore, this opens the door for pressing in the midfield area, of which Longstaff will be the heartbeat of.

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