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Birmingham v Norwich

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The Sky cameras will be here because both teams have something riding on this match. Birmingham could drop into the third tier for the first time since 1994/95 and if Norwich get a point then they will be secure in the play-offs.

Birmingham have been circling the Championship drain for years now, having finished no higher than 17th in the league for seven consecutive seasons. However, this season was meant to be all so different. They had stabilised under the on-pitch leadership of John Eustace, and a long-awaited takeover saw American ownership arrive with promises of an overhaul at the club.

In fairness, that overhaul looks to be genuine, with plans in place to invest in a new stadium for the club, new training facilities, and an investment plan for the regeneration of the area around the stadium as well. However, the football decisions haven’t worked out very well at all. 

Wayne Rooney’s appointment as head coach when the team were doing well in 6th place has proven to be a total disaster, Tony Mowbray’s tenure seemed to be on course to repair the damage but Mowbray’s illness has unfortunately impacted the form as well. Gary Rowett’s emergency spell has brought competency, but, ultimately, their fate is out of their hands on the final day.

David Wagner looked like a dead man walking in the Norwich dugout halfway through the season. However, the German was given some patience by the Norwich decision-makers, and that has paid off handsomely given their rise into the top six. This is a case study on the impact that injuries can have on a squad. The return of key players Josh Sargent, Grant Hanley, and others, have had a huge effect on the results in the second half of the season.

Birmingham v Norwich Best Bets

➡️ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72 on bet365
➡️ Jay Stansfield to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.44 on Betfair
➡️ Josh Sargent to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.50 on Betfair

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📂 Birmingham v Norwich Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets to look for player fouls won stats or any other markets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Birmingham v Norwich match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.

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⚔️ Birmingham v Norwich Head-to-Head

It was a Norwich team that was missing Sargent and Hanley that took to the field in the reverse fixture in late September. However, on this occasion, the Canaries were still too strong for Blues.

Norwich dominated the first half, limiting Birmingham to just one shot. However, they had to wait until the second half to force the breakthrough, finally scoring through Gabriel Sara in the 55th minute. The lead was doubled soon after with a Jonathan Rowe finish.

Norwich were able to see the game out fairly comfortably from that point onwards, though gamestate meant that Birmingham saw more of the ball, had more territory and were able to even up the corner count at 4-4 for the match.

Jay Stansfield had the highest number of shots in the match with four, while Gabriel Sara demonstrated his threat even from a deeper area with three shots himself. Norwich ended with 16 shots in total compared to 12 from Birmingham, 11 of which came in the second half.

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📊 Birmingham Form and Stats

Birmingham have been in full-on relegation battle mode for a few weeks now, and the fact that they are in the bottom three approaching the final day is an indication of the lack of success that they have had in their points gathering.

Their last six Championship matches read W2 D2 L2, eight points from six games isn’t a bad return, and if this level of 1.33 points per match had been repeated all season then they would be clear of danger, but last week’s draw at Huddersfield was pivotal in not having their fate in their own hands here.

Birmingham have to win and hope that one of Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, or Blackburn lose. The difficult bit may be achieving the win themselves, albeit they have won two of their last three home matches.

Performances don’t matter at this stage of the season, but it is also encouraging for the Blues that they have created chances at home recently as well. Six of their last nine home matches have seen the Blues create over 1.5 xG.

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📊 Norwich Form and Stats

Norwich have blasted their way into the play-offs in the second half of the season with some strong form under David Wagner.

However, their home form has been doing most of the heavy lifting. They have won three in 10 away from home, albeit they have also only lost one in their last four on the road.

They are a strong goal threat with Sargent in the team, it is his return that has catalysed the Norwich resurgence but they have also kept the opposition to less than 1 xG in three of their last four away games as well.

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💰 Birmingham v Norwich Best Bets 

Birmingham are desperate for the win here, but this is no guarantee of success. Teams that need a win on the final day of the Championship season against teams who don’t need anything only have a 49% win percentage since 2013.

Besides, Norwich probably still do want something from the game. Finishing fifth is probably preferable to sixth in terms of play-off semi-final opponents, and a point secures their status over Hull, albeit goal difference probably has them safe regardless.

Therefore, goals should come in this game. Norwich team news is a bit of guesswork at this stage, Wagner does have previous of being extremely ‘pragmatic’ once play-offs are secured, but whoever takes to the pitch for Norwich – they are capable of scoring goals.

With Birmingham needing to get at least one, over 2.5 goals is the best bet at 1.72 on bet365. A further recommendation is for BTTS & Over 2.5 goals at a slightly chunkier 1.87.

Shots should be high in this one due to the stakes at play. Jay Stansfield will be given prime responsibility for Blues, and he is a sharp finisher when given the chance, Stansfield to have 1+ shots on target is 1.44 on Betfair is a shrewd play. Josh Sargent is averaging over 1.5 shots on target per 90, and, Sargent to have 1+ shots on target is 1.50 on Betfair also appeals.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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