This angle is mainly placed on two things: Portsmouth's performance data and the price.

Over the course of the last 10 matches, Portsmouth actually have the best xG ratio in the league, and, actually, it's not even close. This means that they have created much better opportunities than they have allowed over this period, keeping their opponents to 0.68 xG against, whilst creating around 1.8 xG per match themselves.

Traditionally, away form has not been strong for Pompey, but their positive turnaround stretches to this aspect too. They have won three and drawn one of their last six on their travels, and won the xG battle in five of those six matches, including the 1-2 defeat at Wrexham last time out.

This bodes well for the trip to Ewood, where the hosts have really struggled for results in front of their own fans. They have the worst home record in the league, outside of Sheffield Wednesday, so if Portsmouth are able to continue their positive performances and put the home team under pressure, then the cracks could begin to show again.

Blackburn have only won four from 18 at home in the Championship this season, so this bet would have won 14/18.

Blackburn are a team who receive a lot of yellow cards, the fourth highest in the league, and they are one of the few who average over two yellow cards per match.

This average does drop when looking solely at their home matches, but it is still the case that they have beaten this line in terms of cautions in three of their last four at home.

However, the main plus point for this bet in the research was how many cards they have been given since Michael O'Neill has taken over. It has been 11 cards in four matches, getting two or more in each match.

For their part, Portsmouth see their opponents get 1.97 cards per match over the season. This number improves to 2.2 when looking only at their last 10 matches.

Referee Tom Nield is the final part in this jigsaw. He is not a wild referee by any metric, but he is not a big hindrance either. Neild averages 3.75 cards per match across 15 Championship assignments this season, but averages a touch higher than that across his career as a whole.

Portsmouth have been averaging 14.9 shots per match over their last 10 matches, and Millenic Alli has been a big part of that total.

Alli himself has averaged 2.77 shots per 90 in that time, which encompasses his entire Pompey career so far since signing from Luton in January.

In those 10 matches, Alli has only failed to hit this two or more shot line once, hitting only one shot at Watford back on 21st January, his shot history reads: 3 (most recent), 2, 2, 4, 7, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2.

Blackburn have been a bit up and down with their shot concession recently, conceding 14 to Derby last time out and 21 to QPR four games ago, but only 10 to Bristol City and three to Preston, though that potentially says more about Preston than Blackburn.

This is priced up much higher than I think that it should be.

I have already made the case for Portsmouth in this match, so I can concentrate on Adams’ shooting form here.

Adams has been a huge influence on Pompey since his signing in January. He has started the last nine matches, playing the vast majority of minutes in those games as well.

He has contributed an all-round game, which certainly includes breaking forwards and getting shots away. Marlon Pack sits in midfield, and that allows Adams to attack the box or shoot from range, something he is more than happy to try.

Adams has hit an average of 1.54 shots per 90 since his signing. He has hit at least one shot in seven of his nine starts, and the matches that he didn't shoot in were at Wrexham, with only nine shots in total for Pompey, and at Charlton, with only 12 shots.