By the time Ipswich kick off here they will have three games in hand on Millwall, who will be above them in second place. They will know that a win here is a must, and whilst this also can create pressure, which isn't always conducive to good performances, it does focus the mind on knowing that only a win will do.

The Tractor Boys face an out-of-form Blues who now have nothing much to play for, and there seems to have been a sea change in fan perception of head coach Chris Davies, too. Loud boos rang out at St. Andrew's after defeat to Blackburn on Good Friday, and that loss of faith from the stands is indicative of the general malaise that they are seeing from the team on the pitch.

To me it seems like Birmingham are potentially great opponents for Ipswich at this stage. The match between these two at the beginning of the season seemed to show that Birmingham were ready for the step up, but it proved a red herring. Ipswich are not used to teams that come to Portman Road trying to dominate the ball, and I think they will relish the opportunity to have a little more chance to play on transition.

Ipswich have been highly dominant at home all season, with a +1.37 xG differential average across all Championship home games. They average 2.2 xG on their own turf, and only failed to score twice all season.

Meanwhile, Birmingham have been poor away all season. A -0.24 xG differential, but more importantly, only five wins, 12 defeats, and three defeats in a row on the road without scoring leading into this match.

Both teams are now in a situation where they are rolling with the punches to the end of the season. There is not much at stake except for vibes to go into the off-season with. Roy Hodgson picked up his first win as Bristol City manager on Good Friday in a ding-dong battle with Charlton. That will do the confidence of the players a world of good, and I expect them to be able to carry a level of threat in this match.

It was actually the first time since the 30th August at home to Hull that City had generated over 2 xG in a match, which perhaps indicates that they are prepared to play with a touch more freedom than they were able to understand Gerhard Struber.

On the other hand, it was also the 12th match in a row that they allowed their opponents over 1 xG, which is a great thing for this bet.

Sheffield United have become somewhat chaotic at this stage. From a comfortable 3-1 lead against Swansea on Good Friday, they managed to let that slip to draw 3-3. That made it five matches in a row that BTTS has landed for the Blades, and it fits in perfectly with the overall opinion that they are somewhat loose at the moment.

Similarly to City, the Blades have now allowed their opponents over 1 xG in seven consecutive matches, and also in seven consecutive away matches too. Their xG averages away from home also indicate high-chance matches, 1.61 v 1.7. I think the chances of entertainment and goals are high at Ashton Gate.

With Barnsley’s season set to end with a mid-table finish, their team are headed to the beach nice and early, which should mean one of the best sides in the division for goals can play with even more freedom. The Tykes’ games at Oakwell this season have produced an average of 3.25 goals, with this bet landing in 12 of their 20 games as hosts. The reverse fixture also saw the ball hit the back of the net four times, and so these teams have previous for open encounters.

Plymouth had their charge towards the top six halted with a disappointing defeat at home against 10-man Bolton last time out, but their recent matches have seen plenty of goalmouth action, with over 2.5 goals cashing in five of their last six. Argyle’s games on the road see 3.05 goals per game and while they’re still in touching distance of the play-off places, they should be throwing everything at a Barnsley side who prioritise attack over defence themselves.

After looking in trouble for most of the season, three wins in their last four games have lifted Blackpool five points clear of the drop zone. The Tangerines were tipped by many to be challenging at the top end of the table and after taking time to settle in, Ian Evatt has got their expensively assembled squad looking up the table for the first time in a while. Having picked up draws at Bolton, Huddersfield and Cardiff since February, they can make the trip to Stevenage with a renewed confidence.

Despite sitting just one point outside the play-offs, Stevenage’s lack of productivity in the final third is likely to see them fall short. Alex Revell’s side have generated the fourth lowest expected goals total in the third tier and with such a strong defence, their games are often low margin. A Blackpool side with three consecutive clean sheets, including away at Cardiff, will be a tough nut to crack, and with so few chances created by the home side, the Seasiders can avoid defeat once more.

Notts County need to bounce back from Friday’s agonising defeat at Salford, where the sides traded three stoppage time goals but The Ammies landed the crucial blow. Particularly hard to take given a point would have kept County in the top three.

Before that, County won away at Harrogate to bounce back from a defeat against Oldham, so they have proved recently that they are capable of putting setbacks quickly behind them, and have dispatched poor teams at home routinely, beating Gillingham, Barrow, Tranmere and Cheltenham since the start of February.

They host Newport who lost on home turf to fellow strugglers Crawley to put a dent in their survival hopes, but as it stands they remain one point above the drop zone. They have lost three of their last four games and I can’t see that changing up against a Notts side who average almost two points per game at Meadow Lane.

Both of these sides are well in the promotion race. Crewe are looking to force their way into the play-off puzzle, whilst Salford could finish anywhere between 1st and 6th. A win and the right results from their perspective could see Salford end the day in second place.

I’m hoping for a first half Crewe goal in this one, as that will mean Salford have no choice but to attack, and I think if they force the issue they will have no problem scoring at Gresty Road, as the last four visiting teams have done. 

Salford have scored in four of their last five away games, and are actually the form side in the race for the automatic spots, having beaten MK Dons and Notts County in recent games. They have also conceded in three of their last four.