We’ve had success in recent weeks in this column by getting against Plymouth, and with them propping up the division having lost six consecutive games across all competitions, it feels a safe angle to take them on again. Tom Cleverley is clinging to his job, with his Argyle side falling to defeat in six of their eight away league games this season; a loss at Port Vale could be the final nail in his coffin.

In Vale, we have a side who are just two places above their visitors in the league table; however, all of their underlying data suggests they are a much stronger side. The Valiants have underperformed their expected goals count by a huge 10 goals, which shows that they are creating enough chances to win games, but poor finishing has seen them failing to convert those chances into wins. Only two sides have conceded fewer expected goals than the hosts, and so their process is strong at both ends, and if they continue this level of performance, results should begin to fall into place.

Tranmere come into this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions. They’ve managed to win two of these games, with victories over Blackpool and Cheltenham.

MK Dons have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, with the away side only managing to keep one clean sheet across these fixtures. MK Dons boast the strongest away record of any side in League Two this term, having lost just one of their eight matches on the road this season. These games have produced 23 goals (2.87 per game). 

The most recent meeting between these sides saw BTTS in a 1-1 draw back in February. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 on that occasion.

Now is the time for every team to turn things up and find something in the Championship. The run from the last international break of the year into the new year is often where coaches can really get hold of their teams and attain some level of consistency.

However, it is also the time that suspensions and injuries can start kicking in as well, so it'll often be beneficial for those who have the deepest squads in this period. Ipswich are one of the clubs with a very deep squad, and they seemed to hit some sense of form in the period just before the international break, winning three of their last four matches.

There is still some unexplained and unusual issue around their home results, drawing their last home match against Watford and leaving it late against West Brom before that, but the data shows that Ipswich have generally been putting in strong performances consistently, but not necessarily putting teams away efficiently. They have won the xG battle in all of their home league games, by an average of 2.23 v 0.86xG, a difference of 1.37xG per match, a number that is reminiscent of Leeds United last season, who had a magnificent home record.

Wrexham did find some results of their own in the period before the last international break, and are undefeated in their last five Championship matches. However, they actually have only won twice away from home in the league, the last of which was at Norwich on 20th September. Wrexham also have a heavily negative xG difference away from home, 0.81 v 1.79, almost a whole goals worth of chances per match down against their hosts.

Notts County were starting to become a bit of a dark horse for promotion before slipping up at home to Harrogate last weekend, needing a last minute penalty to salvage a point. They did, however, have the excuse of two days fewer rest than their opponents. BTTS Yes has landed in 11 of their 16 games so far, just as it did Last Saturday.

They welcome Colchester United to Meadow Lane here, fresh from an impressive 0-2 win at Walsall. The U’s have won four of their last six, including beating Grimsby and Chesterfield, so will fancy themselves to claim another scalp and keep climbing up the division.

10 of their 16 games have seen both teams score, and whilst only four have them have been away, County have scored in every home game this season, so they will need to find the net at least once you feel, to come away with any points.

Derby are on a roll. It has been mentioned a few times in this column this season that Derby were failing to reflect John Eustace’s usual style of being very difficult to beat, especially at home, but the Rams have definitely righted that now, and have won their last five Championship matches - including their last three at home.

Similarly to their last home game though, when this column put up this same winning bet against Hull City, Derby’s visitors are a bit more chaotic in their form both in attack and defence.

Watford have seen this bet collect in their last five Championship matches, and in eight of their last nine. The Hornets will be very keen to improve a woeful away record so far this season, they have yet to win away from Vicarage Road this term, but they have averaged over 1xG per away match.

Derby have had a couple of 1-0s at home, but generally they have given more chances away than the goal line here would have us believe. They actually concede 1.22xG per home match, whilst creating 1.12xG themselves, so over 1.5 goals looks a good angle here.