This bet wins if Wimbledon win or draw.

As seems to be the streaky nature of Mansfield’s results under Nigel Clough, the Stags are in the middle of a terrible run of form which has seen them lose their last four league games in a row, last winning back in late October. Admittedly, they’ve faced some tough sides during that period in Bolton, Cardiff and Huddersfield, but this bet, having landed in seven of their nine trips on the road this season, tells its own story. Clough’s side also have 13 first team players suffering with injuries, and so another away trip is not what they need.

Opponents AFC Wimbledon have had difficulties of their own in recent weeks after a strong start to League One life, losing four of their last five in the league and exiting the FA Cup to non-league Gateshead in that period. However, this bet would have landed in five of their eight league games as hosts and facing a Mansfield side in turmoil is the perfect opportunity to get back on track.

I am choosing to trust Birmingham's home form rather than the displays that we have seen in their recent away games. Indeed, this may have been an unbackable price if it wasn't for the more indifferent displays that we have seen from Blues of late.

Charlton have continued their own poor form, though, and it is really difficult to see how Charlton are going to come into this and end up putting themselves in a position to win. There are definite options to compete and be solid defensively for Nathan Jones’ side, but that would mean a return to the organisation early in the season, not the team that has conceded 12 in their last four.

Just to emphasise what Charlton are up against here, Birmingham at home in the Championship this season have scored 2.33 goals per game, conceded 0.89, and this is pretty well matched by the expected goals numbers of 2.03xG vs 0.96xG. Only Watford and Ipswich have matched them in expected goals during 90 minutes so far this season at St. Andrew’s.

Middlesbrough outclassed Charlton in midweek and it seems like this is happening to the Addicks more regularly. Spirit, tenacity, and attitude can combat quality, but there are limits to that too.

We have a mid-table clash here as 15th place Tranmere take on 12th place Crewe, but with this being League Two, mid-table is not what it seems, with the sides four and two points off the play-offs respectively. 

Both teams have scored in seven of Tranmere’s last eight league games, the only side failing to find the scoresheet in that run was Barrow last time out, who have just sacked manager Andy Whing due to underperformance. Their involvement in ‘goalsy’ games has been evident all season long, with 14 of their 19 games a winner in this market.

I watched Crewe’s midweek draw with Newport, over half an hour of which they played against 10 men, but still managed to concede a late equaliser. Despite them being the team applying the pressure whilst looking for a goal to put them in the lead, they were unable to shackle Newport, who looked dangerous every time they crossed the halfway line. It doesn’t surprise me to see that both teams have scored in six of their last seven league games.

In a similar vein to Birmingham and their away form, I am choosing to trust Blackburn’s away form here.

This also goes hand-in-hand with Pompey's poor general form, and whilst they are always stronger at home than they are away, they have won only three of their 10 home matches so far this season, which means that this bet would've won in seven of Pompey's home matches.

Blackburn have the second best away record in the league in terms of points per game, and that is no accident. Valerien Ismael's team are well drilled and cause problems on the break for every team they play against. Their 3-4-1-2 system keeps opponents very honest, and gives a key player a free role to use effectively too in either Ryoya Morishita or Todd Cantwell in the #10 position.

Rovers will also hope to play on the nerves of the home faithful. This was meant to be the season in which Portsmouth kicked on and fully established themselves in the second tier, but they are back in the relegation zone. This is a game the fans will have targeted to get maximum points from, but it won't be easy, and that could help Blackburn prey on the potential negativity.

Walsall were a difficult team to assess in pre-season this year, a dominant force in the first half of League Two 2024/25, but a bottom six team for most of 2025 before a play-off loss following the loan recall of Nathan Lowe.

Fast forward 19 games and they are top of League Two once again, with another star loan striker, Daniel Kanu from Charlton, scoring eight goals in 15 appearances. Despite the bunched nature of League Two, The Saddlers are four points clear at the top, averaging two points per game.

They host a Shrewsbury side who have been really poor away from home, with just five points from nine games so far. In their last two away games they have lost 3-1 to Fleetwood and Crewe, who are each 10 points or more behind Walsall.

Stevenage have regressed significantly in recent weeks and after an excellent start to the campaign, are starting to look more like the mid table side bookmakers expected pre-season. Alex Revell’s side have scored just one goal across their last five league games and once again seem to be struggling to create chances, with the lowest expected goals count across the season of any team in the third tier. They’ve also struggled against the stronger sides in the division this season, being beaten by Cardiff, Huddersfield and Lincoln, all without getting on the scoresheet.

Stockport have not been without their disappointments this season, particularly on their own patch, where they’ve won just four of their nine league ties. They’re also without talisman Ollie Norwood through injury, but in their 2-0 win at Doncaster in midweek, they showed signs of a return to form. Stevenage’s tepid attacking displays should mean that County have enough to keep them at bay, and so a solitary goal from one of the best sides in League One could well be enough to seal victory.