I really like Watford at the moment, and coupled with my uncertainty on high-flying Hull, I am happy to take the slightly bigger price available on the Hornets to take something from the MKM Stadium on Sunday.

Starting with the visitors, they are now seven Championship matches without defeat, with only one loss in 13 matches, so this bet is a regular winner in their games. They have now generated a +0.3 xG differential across all Championship matches this season, which is edging towards a consistent dominance in their matches. Indeed, they have won the xG battle in seven of their last 11 matches.

They haven’t been as impressive away from home though, with a -0.19 xG differential in away matches, but they have actually begun to turn the corner here too. Having only won their first away game with a late comeback at Derby on 22nd November, they have since won back-to-back at Leicester and Norwich.

Hull are in the play-off places and have overachieved this season, but they are still not totally convincing in doing so. Overall, this season they are running at a -0.29 xG differential, 0.6 xG worse than Watford’s, and they deservedly lost last time out at home to Stoke, who had been in relative freefall before that game. There is more unpredictability to Hull, which is what makes me feel uncertain about them.

Going into this match, I feel more confident in Watford’s ability to create, but also to defend, and so to be able to get a bigger price on them due to home advantage, of which Hull have lost three of their last five at home, then it is a price worth taking.

Having looked long and hard at this fixture, I couldn’t resist taking the price on Ipswich. 

The Tractor Boys are probably the best team in the league at the moment. They have beaten Coventry twice in a matter of a few weeks, consolidated that with a home win over Oxford, though it wasn’t the most convincing performance, but they have enough depth in the squad to handle all of these fixtures in a much stronger way than almost all other Championship teams, and definitely more so than Portsmouth.

It goes without saying that a 0-5 thrashing at Bristol City last time out was not ideal, and Pompey’s precarious position is putting added pressure on John Mousinho’s shoulders. In truth, Pompey have not been convincing all season, and although their home results have improved of late, there will have to be a bigger improvement in performance against to handle Ipswich.

In most circumstances, I would’ve wanted a bigger price about Ipswich at Pompey, but such is the gap in likely performance between the two, and the boost that Ipswich are going to have about now being in the automatic promotion places, I actually like this position.

Portsmouth have still lost their last two home fixtures on xG difference, despite getting four points from Charlton and QPR, creating less than 1 xG on both occasions. On the other hand, Ipswich have won their last three away xG battles in a row, and indeed, have lost an xG battle away only once this season, at Blackburn in a 1-1 draw. Ipswich have a +0.45 xG differential on the road across all away games this season.

Consecutive victories on their own patch over the Christmas period have propelled Huddersfield back into the promotion picture and with the fifth best home record in League One, they’ll be confident of starting 2026 in similar fashion.

Lee Grant’s expensively assembled squad are starting to justify their title favourites tag from pre-season and as the top scoring team in the division, there’s every chance they continue to climb the table. 

Visitors Exeter have had a strong festive period of their own but only two sides in the third tier have collected fewer points on the road than the Grecians this season.

Exeter's last away game saw them secure a much-needed victory at AFC Wimbledon, however, having been comfortably kept at arm’s length by Huddersfield in the reverse fixture, this long trip to Yorkshire looks an altogether different prospect. 

League leaders Cardiff are showing no signs of slowing down, and their seven home wins in a row have gone a long way towards their record as the division’s best hosts. Only two teams have come away from the Welsh capital with any points this season, and having opened up a four-point gap to third place, Brian Barry-Murphy will be looking to press on in their bid to return to the Championship at the first time of asking. 

The Bluebirds saw off Wigan 2-0 in the previous meeting in September and dominated that tie, seeing 73% of the ball. The visitors have only been beaten once in their last seven games on the road, but having lost at Bradford, Luton, and Bolton this season, they clearly struggle against the division’s stronger sides. Ryan Lowe’s Latics are only three points above the drop zone in a congested League One table, and with rivals Bolton coming to town next up and an FA Cup trip to Preston, they may have their attention elsewhere.

Bottom of the table, Harrogate look in real trouble this season, having spent the last five seasons punching above their weight in League Two without any real sign of a return to non-league. They have not won a league game for over three months, comprising 14 games and just three points gained. They have lost their last four games in a row without scoring a goal.

They host Swindon, the side in League Two who have picked up the most points away from home, a total of 22 from 12 games. Ian Holloway’s side won four of their six league games in December, all of them whilst keeping a clean sheet in the process, all that whilst not being at their free-scoring best. 

But it didn't really matter to me who Harrogate were playing on Sunday, I would have backed any other League Two side against them.

Newport County are showing signs of improvement under Premier League winner Christian Fuchs, having picked up four points from their last two home games before a narrow defeat at league leaders Bromley. The win against Crewe was their first at Rodney Parade this season, having drawn three and lost eight of the previous 11. They often put up a fight though, with both teams scoring in 6 of 12.

They host Tranmere, who arrive on the back of a 0-2 victory over Newport’s relegation rivals, Harrogate. Andy Crosby’s men have the highest strike rate of games where both teams have scored overall in League Two, and an even higher percentage when focusing just on their away games, where 9 out of 12 would have landed this bet. They’ve not failed to score in the league since mid-October.

Newport’s renewed belief and Tranmere’s open style should make for a game here where both teams find the net.