Having steadied the ship with three wins in the four games since his arrival, Huddersfield’s hierarchy will be expecting the club to kick on under Liam Manning and cement their place in the play-offs as a minimum. Two late goals to rescue a point against Blackpool last time out continued the good feeling for the Terriers, and one of the strongest squads in the division looks well placed to finish the season strongly after seeing off in-form Peterborough and high-flying Bradford since Manning’s appointment. 

The atmosphere at Stevenage could scarcely be more contrasting as three wins from their last 19 league outings have brought Boro fans down to earth with a bang. Alex Revell is starting to come under some pressure at the Hertfordshire club after their defeat at struggling Northampton last weekend, and with his side still sitting bottom of the table for expected goals in the division, it’s easy to see where they need to improve.

Despite their blunt attack, a solid defence means that Stevenage draw more games than they lose, and with a stalemate in six of their last eight home games, it makes sense to take the draw out and still get Huddersfield onside.

Cardiff look set to return to the Championship at the first time of asking, having been beaten just once since the start of November. The Bluebirds boast the best home record in the second tier, winning nine of their last 10 games as hosts and a 3-0 victory away at Rotherham last weekend, despite playing with 10 men for 70 minutes, which should have them full of confidence. They won away at Luton in the reverse fixture, and with the Welsh club clearly so comfortable on their own patch, they look nicely priced to do so again.

Visitors Luton are showing signs of a resurgence under Jack Wilshere and will be buoyed by back-to-back victories coming into this game. However, whilst the Hatters new boss has settled well into life at home, winning five of their last six, it’s a different story on the road where they have the exact reverse of that home form. They’ve failed to score in their last three trips to Exeter, Plymouth and Huddersfield, and a visit to the strongest side in the division is unlikely to see a change in fortunes.

We go back to the Derby-matches-goals well here because the odds just don’t seem to align with the goals numbers for either side.

Starting with Derby themselves, their xG continues to sit around 1 xG per match, which is still okay for the odds on offer in this market, but it is Derby’s action on the pitch which makes this bet backable. They scored again at home to Ipswich last weekend to make it 22 consecutive Championship matches that they have notched in, and they have only missed the mark in two out of 31 league matches this season. Their last four matches have gone over 1.5 goals in total as well.

Swansea have been in the goals as well, especially since Vitor Matos took charge. They have averaged 1.23 goals per match in the league this season, but that goes up to 1.57 under Matos, and what is even better is that the goal total is matched almost exactly by their xG of 1.55, which suggests that this goal rate is highly sustainable.

Indeed, Matos has now taken charge of 14 Championship matches, and Swansea have scored in 13, including four goals last time out. They have also seen over 1.5 goals scored in their last seven Championship matches in a row.

Watford have made another coaching change to try and salvage a play-off position from this season, and it is the second Still to be leading a Championship club this season as Ed Still takes the position, having seen his brother, Will, dismissed by Southampton earlier in the campaign.

Whilst we do have the slight danger of a new manager bounce against us here, I still couldn’t believe the price that Watford are to win this match. This is a Hornets team that haven’t won a match in seven in all competitions, and haven’t scored more than once in any of those matches either. Indeed, the Hornets have won only three away matches all season in the Championship from 15 played, which means that this bet has won in 80% of Watford away matches.

To put up some sort of defence, Watford have won four of those matches on the xG data, but I suggest that Preston care not for that.

Paul Heckingbottom’s team are having a good season and certainly have plenty of motivation to get something out of this match. They are on the brink of the top six, with potentially a point being enough to get them into the play-off places. They have lost only four of 16 Championship home matches, which, again, means that this bet would’ve won in 75% of Preston’s home matches.

Preston’s home xG differential is not impressive at -0.03 xG, but they have been overperforming that xG all season by being effective in both boxes. Also, Watford’s own away xG differential is only +0.01 xG, so we could be heading towards a very even match from a performance perspective, with Preston having greater confidence and a better record to lean on.

First meets third in League Two on Saturday as Bromley host Notts County, with just five points separating the two sides. Bromley are unbeaten at home so far this season, and incredibly have scored two goals or more in every one of their 14 home league matches.

So we know Bromley are guaranteed to score with the above in mind, so what about their opponents? Well, the opposition have scored in 10 of those 14, with no clean sheet in their last three at Hayes Lane.

Notts County have won six games in a row to propel them into the title race, but they have had a kind-ish run of fixtures, facing four bottom-half sides. Nine of their 14 away games this season have seen both teams find the net. It is probably not surprising that County manage to score so often when you consider they have two of the six top goalscorers in the division in Matthew Dennis and Alassana Jatta, and they will have to keep out the league's joint 2nd top scorer in Michael Cheek.

Lee Bell’s Crewe come into this game unbeaten in four and looking to get back into the play-off positions, currently sitting in 10th, just two points behind 7th-placed Walsall. Their last opponents here, Colchester, drew a blank, but prior to that game, both teams to score had landed in eight games in a row at The Mornflake Stadium. 

Gareth Ainsworth’s side are four positions and six points behind Crewe. Both teams to score has landed in seven of their last 10 games. Ainsworth will need to work some magic to get his side anywhere near where they wanted to be at the start of the campaign.