The play-offs are still within reach of the Hornets after their big win at home to Wrexham in midweek.

The 3-1 victory means that they are five points off Southampton in sixth, but, interestingly to this bet, it was also the fourth consecutive match in which Watford have both scored and conceded.

They created close to 2 xG against Wrexham, and it was the seventh time out of seven that they have created over 1 xG under the management of Ed Still. This is quite impressive and perhaps signifies that Still is able to get a good tune out of the undoubted attacking talent that Watford have gathered together.

They have an impressive +0.55xG differential so far under Still, but that does still mean that they are averaging a concession of 1.2 xG on average per match.

Leicester are under new management as well, of course, with Gary Rowett. They have notched in their last three matches, and with Jordan James back fit and starting matches, it provides another live goal threat alongside Abdul Fatawu and Stephy Mavididi, as well as the Rowett fallback of set pieces.

If Watford continue to average out at around 1 xG conceded, then Leicester do have the players with the ability to convert.

James Morrison has definitely given something to his team, despite the number of seemingly broken strings in the squad.

The performances have improved, and along with that, they have picked up valuable points that have the Baggies back outside of the relegation zone as things stand.

However, this bet is as much about Bristol City as it is West Brom. The natives are restless at Ashton Gate, with accusations levelled at all strata of management, from ownership to boardroom, to director of football, to head coach, about mismanagement of the entire club.

Gerhard Struber is standing accused of the age-old criticism of “square pegs in round holes,” and whilst neutral observers may point to a fairly ridiculous injury crisis in one position as a cause of this, the Robins faithful are less than impressed to see how a second successive play-off campaign has ebbed away.

There has been no win in four for City, losing three, and four home defeats in six league matches, with a solitary victory coming against marooned Sheffield Wednesday. City fans have come to get used to the fact that they are being outplayed at home too, losing the xG battle comprehensively to Watford, Wrexham, and Derby in recent home games. Indeed, they have a -0.2 xG differential across their last 15 home matches.

West Brom have some momentum to bring into the match. Unbeaten in three, and with a big 3-0 win over play-off contenders Hull in their last match. They have created over 1 xG in each of their last five league matches, comprehensively winning the xG battle over both Hull and Southampton in their last two matches.

Away form has been weak for West Brom all season, but they did get a point at Sheffield United last away game, and they drew at Birmingham and Derby under Eric Ramsay.

Whilst I am not expecting a free-flowing attacking masterclass from Baggies, they know that a point earned here will be a big help in their situation, and with City’s own issues, I like their chances of getting at least that.

Lincoln are absolutely flying towards promotion to the Championship, winning ten of their last 12 league games and going unbeaten since November 22nd.

The Imps boast the strongest home record in League One with 46 points from 19 games as hosts and have covered this handicap in five of their last seven games at Sincil Bank. That includes having beaten promotion hopefuls Stockport and Bradford 3-1 and 3-0, and they’ll be out for revenge having been beaten in the reverse fixture.

The atmosphere at Rotherham could scarcely be more contrasting with a 5-0 loss at Peterborough in midweek, leaving them languishing in 22nd place, six points from safety. The Millers have taken just 11 points on the road all season, the worst record in the second tier, and have lost eight of their last nine games on their travels.

Relegation to League Two is looking more likely by the week, and having failed to score in each of their last four away games, this looks like a very difficult trip.

This is a huge game in the relegation battle as it pits the sides in 19th and 20th place against each other. However, studying the form of both teams, there only looks to be one winner.

Gary Caldwell has overseen a mini revival since taking over at Wigan, losing just once in five games, and the Latics would have had back-to-back victories if not for a late red card and a 96th-minute equaliser at Barnsley in midweek. The form of Joe Taylor looks likely to drag them clear from trouble, and with eight goals in 12 games since arriving in January, the striker seems intent on keeping them up.

Exeter face their old boss here, and since he left the Devonshire club have yet to win in eight attempts in league action. The Grecians have slumped to four straight defeats and, having previously looked safe from the drop zone, have been hauled back into the mix and now sit just one point above the bottom four.

With the trajectories of both clubs in stark contrast, momentum seems to be with the home side, and who better to get the better of Exeter than Caldwell after he spent three and a half years as their boss?

Notts County bounced back from a weekend defeat at home to Chesterfield by walloping Accrington 0-4 away from home on Tuesday night.

The scoreline was perhaps one goal too flattering, but the seven big chances created compared to the zero of Accrington give you an indication of the dominance. Considering they were down to ten men from the 19th minute, the Chesterfield loss would also have been pretty encouraging in a way, twice equalising despite the one-man deficit.

Before that, County won away at Walsall, lost at home to Grimsby in an even game after again going down to ten men, and before that beat Tranmere 5-0. In summary, they are in really good form, and there are excuses for the defeats.

They host Cheltenham, who are actually on an eight-match unbeaten run, but only two of those matches have resulted in wins. Using NTT20’s xG ratio tables, the underlying numbers of that run are pretty good too, putting The Robins 9th over the last ten games. But Notts County are 1st over the last ten games, and I just seem them being too strong.

Pete Wild is the man entrusted with ensuring Tranmere will stay in League Two this season, with the gap to the relegation zone now down to six points. Tranmere have picked up just seven points from 15 games since the turn of the year, and they’ve turned in two pretty uninspiring attacking displays under Wild, just three shots away at Fleetwood, and only nine at home to Harrogate despite being 0-2 down after eleven minutes.

That doesn’t obviously scream goals to, but such was the backlash by Tranmere fans after Tuesday’s defeat that I feel Wild has no choice but to send his side out on the front foot for this one. Tranmere are capable of ‘goalsy’ games, as only two sides in League Two have seen both teams score in their matches more than Rovers.

Their opponents, Swindon, will give up opportunities. Despite keeping a clean sheet at Gillingham on Tuesday night, The Gills had 20 shots compared to Swindon’s seven. Before that, Ian Holloway’s side had conceded in their last three away games.