This is just so football. No sooner is Will Still out of the door than Southampton finally get the piece of luck that Still was probably praying for. They were fairly soundly beaten on the xG data by QPR on Tuesday night, but actually managed to emerge victorious for the first time in six matches.

It should be stated that although they lost the xG battle, the vast majority of QPR pressure came after they were already 0-2 down, and especially after they got a goal back, so Saints’ lead wasn’t undeserved, and, actually, the individual quality for the two goals is one of the reasons that I am backing goals for them here.

It is definitely not the case that now Will Still has gone, Southampton will automatically rise through the league. I think that there are deeper issues than that, but they do definitely still have that quality to put teams to the sword when it clicks.

Despite their goalscoring problems, they are still underperforming their xG total quite dramatically; they have seen three of their last four matches go over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in 11 of their 14 Championship matches so far.

Sheffield Wednesday also showed both sides to their game on Tuesday night. A sublime Barry Bannan long-range strike for an early goal, but he also eventually succumbed to the pressure to concede a second-half equaliser. To be fair to Wednesday, they threatened to reply with another goal after that, and won the xG count. This is one of the reasons why goals look a good bet here, Wednesday are likely to have their own chances to add to the scoresheet.

Looking at recent form, despite Middlesbrough retaining a high standing in the league, there is an opportunity to get on board with Birmingham here, and I am all for it.

Blues started the season looking like one of the better teams in the league, as did Middlesbrough, but Boro’s run at the moment is beginning to look like one that is being held together by character and a bit of luck, rather than regularly being the better team and having a process that gives them an edge over most teams.

This is not to say that Middlesbrough won’t remain a promotion challenger either; they are doing well enough to stay around the top six, but Birmingham’s recent performances have been the best in the league.

I am not just talking about the back-to-back 4-0 victories at home, though. Going back over five or ten matches, Birmingham actually have the best xG ratio, which is expected goals for, pitted against expected goals against, in the league, and it isn’t really that close. Birmingham’s victims in their last massive win, Millwall, actually sit second in the five-game guide in this, which illustrates how good that performance was.

The way that Chris Davies sets the team up, Birmingham are prone to these dominant matches and dominant spells; the difference is often whether or not they are able to get ahead in matches. If they do manage to grab the opening goal, their approach of control is often well-suited to protecting and building on that lead, whilst on the other hand, they don’t appear to be as well-suited to chasing games.

The draw is a major runner here, so to get that onside is important. Although Middlesbrough haven’t yet lost at the Riverside Stadium this season, they also haven’t won by more than a single goal, and many of their matches have been very tight. Birmingham have every chance of playing on that and keeping things tight themselves, which could create a stalemate of sorts. Birmingham are the ones with the confidence at this stage, though.

Three wins from their last five League One game have seen Bolton climb up to seventh in the table, and the Trotters will have eyes on pushing towards the automatic promotion slots in what looks like a very open league. Wanderers have the best home form of any team in the division, having taken 17 points from their seven games as hosts and conceding just four goals.

They’ve won seven consecutive games on home soil across all competitions and are starting to look like the promotion challengers that the pre-season markets expected them to be.

Port Vale last tasted victory in league action at the end of September, and their last two league games, which saw a 3-0 reverse against Stockport and a 1-0 defeat at ten-man Wigan, have stunted their revival.

Their away form has been decent, with wins at Barnsley, Exeter, and Blackpool this season; however, they’re yet to visit a side as strong as Bolton, and the ease with which Stockport dispatched them last time out suggests they’re in for a tough afternoon.

Despite having lost their last three consecutive league games, Huddersfield still occupy ninth place in the standings thanks to their strong start to the season. Their recent form is a concern; however, there is no shame in losing to Stockport, who look the best side in the third tier, and they conceded twice in stoppage time to fall to defeat against Bolton.

The loss at Wycombe last time out was a poor performance; however, they did also play for over an hour with ten men.

Visitors Plymouth last won in September, and four successive defeats has put manager Tom Cleverley under pressure. Argyle have been comfortably beaten by Wimbledon, Mansfield, and Exeter in their last three league games and put up little resistance in cup action at Wycombe last weekend.

The visitors have conceded the most goals of any League One side, and so could probably do without a trip to one of the strongest squads at the level.

The Spireites currently occupy 7th position in League Two, but are just three points off top spot due to the bunched nature of the league this season.

At home, they are particularly strong, one of only two sides who are unbeaten on home turf, having picked up the third highest points tally through seven home games, with four wins and three draws. Paul Cook’s side are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, the latest of which was a morale-boosting victory over League One high-flyers Stevenage in the First Round of the FA Cup.

They host an Accrington side who have lost five of their seven away league games, scoring just four goals in the process. They’re just one point above the League Two trapdoor in 21st place, and just one place higher than that in the form table over the last five games.

I think Accrington might improve a little over the course of the season, but I see Chesterfield having too much for them at home.

With a record of 10 out of 14, no side in League Two have seen both teams score in their fixtures than Tranmere Rovers, who travel to 2nd placed Swindon on Saturday. Tranmere are currently 17th in League Two and are on a three-game unbeaten run, with two draws and a win.

Five of their last six league games have featured both teams getting on the scoresheet. The Super White Army have scored 22 goals, which is the most of any side outside the top seven. Six of their seven away games have landed this bet, which is the highest percentage in the division.

Swindon’s games used to be a lock for both teams to score, but of late, that has slowed a little, with only one of their last five games seeing both teams find the net.

Their overall percentage is still 57%, both overall and at home, and I think a team like Tranmere, who clearly play on the front foot, will bring the best and the worst out of them, in terms of scoring and conceding goals. Both teams scored away at Rotherham on Saturday in the FA Cup.