I was pretty shocked to see the goal line priced quite so high here. Getting the negative out if the way first, it is true that both teams are in a poor run of form. This is going to have an effect on the predicted goal line, but the recent data and scorelines of both clubs still gives encouragement at the prices.

Blackburn, despite missing a whole host of first team players, managed to get themselves on the scoresheet at Swansea with a well worked goal. Their last home match ended 2-2 against Charlton, and there has actually only been one match at Ewood in the Championship this season that has finished under this goal line in 13 matches, a 0-1 defeat to QPR in November.

Blackburn average 1.37xG themselves at home, not far off the line we need here, and they have conceded 1.12xG at home, which, whilst not a huge total, demonstrates that they can, and do, concede goals at Ewood as well.

From a Watford perspective, they have gone off the boil. However, they still have an attacking outlook and plenty of goals in the team. They have notched in their last eight consecutive away Championship matches, and with Blackburn really suffering with defensive injuries, playing young Academy products in their back line, the Hornets have to fancy their chances of continuing that streak here.

Having watched Sheffield United against Southampton, it was notable that they just seemed a little off the pace, especially through midfield. Whilst this is only one match, and one is loathe to read too much into a single game, it is a tough run of fixtures for Blades right now, and they'll need to find something extra in order to face down this challenge from the Tractor Boys.

Ipswich have begun to click and fly. Two comfortable home wins won't have taken too much out of them, and the way that they have used their run of four consecutive home matches in all competitions to get into a rhythm is a concern to the rest of the division.

The form of Middlesbrough and Coventry probably doesn't help Sheffield United here. Motivation is going to remain really high in the Ipswich camp as they remain in third at the moment.

Ipswich may not be as dominant away from home as they are at Portman Road, but they do still have a +0.47xG differential across the season as a whole when only looking at away matches, and, as improved as Blades have been under Wilder, they have still lost five of their last eight, and their last three in a row.

Ipswich's last 10 matches has seen them have a +1xG differential per match over their opponents. Their depth in options in the squad seems to be making a real difference at this stage of the season, and I think they are a touch of value to get this win.

Since Leam Richardson’s arrival at Reading, he’s had them charging up the table and turned them into a solid outfit that are difficult to beat. The Royals have been particularly strong on their own patch, where they’ve won four of their six games under his stewardship and have only been beaten once. Only in-form Peterborough have won at the Madejski Stadium since August, and if Reading are to make a late surge for the top seven, their home games will be crucial.

Visitors Barnsley snapped a difficult run of four league games without a win by beating Blackpool last time out, but they’re still struggling on the road. Conor Hourihane’s side have only won once on their travels since August, with a 2-1 win at Doncaster the solitary victory from their last nine attempts. They did beat Reading 3-2 at Oakwell back in September, but the hosts are a different beast under Richardson, and look well set to avoid defeat at the least.

We had success backing against my sorry Stevenage side last weekend, and I’m afraid to say we’re going in again. A 0-0 draw against Bolton in midweek was a solid enough result for Alex Revell’s side, but they’re now winless in their last seven league games and last won at home back on October 4th. An excellent start to the season means they’re still in touch with the play-off places, however, the underlying data suggests Boro are more likely to find themselves in the bottom half before too long. 

Known for their streaky form under Nigel Clough, Mansfield arrive in Hertfordshire on the back of five wins in a row in all competitions, including a 4-3 win at Sheffield United in the FA Cup. They’ve won their last three league games without conceding, and they also boast an excellent head-to-head record against Stevenage, only losing once in the last 11 meetings.

If we take the two sides form over the last six league games, Mansfield sit fourth in the League One standings, whilst Stevenage are 23rd, and so with such contrasting confidence levels, it makes sense to have the visitors on side.

Pre-season favourites for the title, MK Dons failed to live up to the hype in the first half of the season, plodding to 4th place at the turn of the year with underlying numbers to match. They have, therefore, wasted no time in strengthening their squad upon the opening of the January transfer window, with trusted Paul Warne Lieutenants Ben Wiles and Curtis Nelson quickly through the door.

Wiles scored eight goals under Warne for Rotherham in League One, and a further eight goals last year in the same division for Huddersfield. He scored on his league debut for the Dons last weekend. Nelson started every game in Warne’s promotion-winning Derby side, and started 27 games in the Championship last season.

Shrewsbury are doing just enough towards the bottom of League Two to stay out of the relegation zone, currently four points above the drop. However, only six of their 22 points have been picked up away from home. They should be up against it here.

Despite the results still continuing in a negative vein, Newport look a little more competitive under coach Christian Fuchs than they did earlier in the campaign. If the league had started on the day Fuchs took over, Newport would be up in 19th place, which certainly looks a lot better than being rooted to the bottom as they currently are. They had 22 shots away at Gillingham last time out, with seven on target, which is double their seasonal average.

They host a Chesterfield side who have been active in the window, even announcing three new signings on a matchday and putting them straight into the starting line up. Those fresh faces haven’t yet translated into a win, as they have drawn their three January games so far, but you could argue a draw away at MK Dons and at home to Bromley are decent results.

They are currently outside the play-off positions, but are only five points behind 2nd place, such is the congested nature of League Two this season. The Spireites certainly give it a go on the road, with nine of their 13 games seeing both teams score.