Oxford matches do have a fairly low goal line so far this season. Even so, the matches are still averaging over two goals per game at 2.33, and the xG generated in their matches is even higher, currently standing at 2.67 per game.

Millwall’s seasonal data is actually very similar to Oxford’s, so the goal line is understandable, but recent evidence suggests to me that both teams are in decent form with high degrees of confidence going forwards. Millwall matches are averaging 2.2 goals per game, with, again, a higher xG level of 2.84 per game, which is a fairly high average.

Indeed, four of Millwall’s last five matches have gone over 1.5 goals, with Millwall themselves beating this line on their own in three of those matches. The Lions have only failed to score in four of their matches in all competitions this season so far, and their last four away games have seen both teams score, which obviously covers the line here.

Oxford have improved their attacking options this season with Nik Prelec, Will Lankshear, and Brian De Keersmaecker, all looking like good additions. It doesn’t always click for them, hence the odd bad performance, such as the Wrexham one, but they have managed to create well over 1 xG in every home match so far this season.

Many people had Ipswich as the most likely team to do what Coventry are currently doing, dominating the league. The fact that they are currently in midtable and are a backable price to beat QPR here tells its own story of how the season has gone for the Tractor Boys so far.

However, there are positives that I am not going to overlook. Whilst results haven't been good enough for a potential title winners, Ipswich have generally performed well enough in terms of box-to-box play and chance creation to make me believe that they are still one of the best teams in the league.

This is backed up by their expected points that would have Ipswich in second, just behind Coventry. They are third for xG created and second for xG conceded, and they are top for big chances missed, which explains a bit of what has happened to them so far.

QPR are a good team, but I don't see that they are a promotion contender. They are very much midtable in terms of metrics and results. They have a lively attack and some promising elements of control in defence, but this is going to be a tough test for them.

The draw is a runner here, Ipswich have drawn a couple of away games so far this season, but by taking the draw no bet option we have that covered.

Stoke are chalked up as favourites here and I'm not sure that the gap between the prices is right.

Stoke obviously have home advantage on their side, but I'm not sure that should take up as much of the market as it seems that it is here. Stoke have won three out of their five home games in the league so far, but Bristol City remain undefeated away from home in the league, in other words, this bet would have landed in all of their previous away games.

Not only that, but Bristol City are in a good place as a club right now. Fresh off the back of a top six position last season, they lost their manager, but seem to have made a very smart hire to replace him, and despite having lost captain Jason Knight to injury recently, they have maintained their momentum to remain in the top six again this season.

It is my contention that City are a better team than Stoke at the moment, which makes these prices wrong. Gerhard Struber’s men not only rank just above Stoke in the league table, by a point, but they rank highly above them in the xPts table for this season too. Stoke have done well in picking up results, but they haven’t actually scored more than once in a game since August, which has to be a concern, especially because they haven’t been creating tonnes of chances either, only 1.24 xG per match on average.

Stoke do restrict teams fairly though so it is important to get the draw onside at as a winner as well.

To me, there is a surprising disparity in the match odds for this game.

Watford weren't actually ever a particularly poor side under Paulo Pezzolano, yes, their results weren't very good, but underlying numbers suggested that they were at least competent box-to-box. In situations like that it can always turn, and whether the installation of Javi Gracia and his new coaching team is the catalyst, or whether it is just variance coming home to roost, there is no real way to know.

What we can say though is that fan optimism has certainly returned, which can only help in a home game such as this. Watford actually have a good home record anyway, only losing once, to Blackburn bizarrely, this season, and winning four of their six home matches with a plus three goal difference at this stage.

Middlesbrough started their away form on fire, winning their first couple on their travels. Eventually they lost their unbeaten record at Pompey, and they were unconvincing winners at Sheffield Wednesday, an away game that has been a penalty kick for many Championship teams. Draws at Preston, via a last minute equaliser, and at Southampton, complete their last four away days, and there is scant evidence there that they deserve to be such strong favourites for this.

The final reason for this bet is when analysing the performance data for both teams. Watford actually rank much higher than Boro in expected points and expected goals for/against ratio in whatever temporal period you want to slice it up to. This may suggest some game state bias, as can happen when Boro have been behind so little time, but still, it goes against the prices here.