What a shame that this is a 3pm Saturday kick-off. By expected points, these two are the best two teams in the Championship, but Coventry are also walking the walk by turning those expected points, and positive performances, into actual points, as they sit top of the league.

I think that both teams go into this match with an element of respect for each other, which is a slight concern in a goals bet, but also knowing that neither team has a rock-solid defence on which they have relied upon. Ipswich are running at 2.17xG per home match so far this season, so they are certainty creating enough chances in a match to be scoring here, as long as Coventry give them the room to do so.

Coventry’s defensive performance suggests that they will, as they are conceding 1.18xG per match on the road. Interestingly, the Sky Blues are also creating over 2xG per match, even away from home, so there are two very strong chance creation attacks here.

Three of Coventry’s last four away matches have ended BTTS, and whilst Ipswich have been better defensively at home in recent weeks, this will be a much tougher test for them, and as Blackburn showed again on Tuesday night, Ipswich can be put under pressure and concede both chances and goals.

This is probably the shortest price that Blackburn have been to win a home league match for a very long time, but there are definitely some strong reasons behind this price, and it could even go shorter nearer kick-off.

Let's begin with the positives. Blackburn are beginning to look like a really good side. Valerien Ismael has his team playing coherently and in the image of some of his best sides of the past, particularly his Barnsley team, that made the Championship play-offs in 2020/21.

The change of shape to a 3-4-1-2 has suited the team perfectly, and their recent record shows that. They were really unlucky not to hold on to beat Ipswich in their rearranged match on Tuesday night. They were the better team, as they were at Wrexham last Saturday, but injury time goals turned a potential six points into two.

Rovers actually sit in the play-off positions in the expected points table, and their relatively low league position is a little false.

Turning to Sheffield Wednesday, it is becoming a real struggle for them. They actually displayed some good football in the first half especially against Preston, and we're perhaps a missed penalty away from getting something, but they conceded three goals at home to a Preston team that aren't the most free-flowing in attack.

The Owls have been deducted another six points as well, so there is very little motivation for them to gather points other than pride. There is definitely a lot of that on show, though, so my main concern is quality and fatigue. There are not enough Championship-quality players in the squad, and the ones that are there have to be flogged as much as possible.

Rovers should add to Wednesday's losses to make it five in a row and 13 without a win.

Whilst I can understand that this has quite a bit of tension on it, I think that the goal line is a little too low for this match, for a number of reasons.

Much of Swansea's data so far was under Alan Sheehan, and now that Vitor Matos has come in, there should be a slight change of emphasis to make them a bit more open. The way that Matos played at Maritimo, in a short spell, would suggest that, and Swansea were involved in a really goal-heavy and chance-heavy match against West Brom last time out (losing 3-2).

Indeed, Swansea matches have beaten this line in the last eight, with the last five of those going over 2.5 goals as well.

Over the last 10 matches, Swansea have conceded 1.5 xG per match, so their average chances conceded could easily cover this line alone.

Oxford are no strangers to goals in their matches either. They have passed this line in their last seven Championship matches. They have only managed to keep one clean sheet away from home this season as well, at QPR.

Similarly to Swansea, Oxford’s xG against is another positive aspect to this bet. Away from home this season, Oxford have allowed an average of 1.84 xG against per match.