Last weekend, both Crawley and Bristol Rovers had a game to forget as the two League One strugglers each suffered defeats while conceding five goals in the process.

It was a more damaging loss for Saturday’s home side given that it leaves them 12 points from safety with only 27 points left to play for. It would also cost manager Rob Elliot his job. Rovers may sit just outside the drop zone but at least have a six point comfort, for now.

Bristol Rovers manager Iñigo Calderón said his side lacked energy in their 5-0 setback to Lincoln City, citing the wins over playoff hopefuls Bolton Wanderers and Huddersfield Town took a lot out of his players given it was their 3rd game in a week. After a heavy loss, he will demand a big reaction, as will the players themselves.

They should at least be scoring against a team with the worst defensive record in the division. Manager-less Crawley are the only outfit in the division to have shipped 70+ goals. Also, only Peterborough United and Shrewsbury Town have fewer clean sheets than they do, with the last one Town achieved being 11 games ago. In this time, they’ve conceded an average of 2.72 goals per match.

The away team aren’t prolific scorers themselves, however they’re at least averaging 1.40 goals over their previous 10 contests. In that time, they did at least score on seven occasions. The fact that Crawley also really need to be winning here means that spaces should open up at some point. There is little faith in them defensively, as has generally been the case all season long.

As things stand, Northampton are one of only two teams in League One to have taken points off runaway league leaders Birmingham City twice this season. Last time out, they held The Blues to a 1-1 draw at home. This extended their unbeaten run to four, although three of these matches were draws. The reality is, The Cobblers have won just four of their previous 12.

They are presented with another tricky challenge this time around when Blackpool are the visitors. Steve Bruce’s men might be in mid-table and a playoff push looks just about out of reach, they deserve big credit for the fact they’ve only lost twice in 11 away contests. Those setbacks were both 2-1 losses to Wrexham and Stockport County, who are in the top five.

Northampton can spring a surprise but there is a real lack of victories when they face top-half opposition, which is where Blackpool are currently occupied. Kevin Nolan’s men have recorded just four victories in 21 season meetings over teams positioned 1st to 12th. All four wins came against Huddersfield Town and Leyton Orient; doing the double over both.

As mentioned, the home side are four without defeat, however they’ve hardly been spectacular throughout this sequence. In fact, their xG in each of these fixtures was below 1.00. As for The Tangerines, they’ve netted 10 more goals over the last 15 League One fixtures than Northampton, they can come away with a win or draw here.

MK Dons parting company with manager Scott Lindsay hasn’t arrested their slide in form. They are bottom of the five-game form table and have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, with only Newport (11) conceding more in that time frame.

MK Dons last kept a clean sheet on January 25th. The xGA faced in matches since reads: 2.31-1.55-2.25-1.28-1.35-1.41-1.78-0.57-0.99-2.14. That’s an average xGA of 1.56 over the last 10 League Two matches, compared to a season average of 1.30. They have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game over their last 10 matches compared to a season average of 1.47 goals per game.

Only Walsall (41), AFC Wimbledon (32), Swindon (32), Bradford (31) and Newport (30) have scored more home goals than Cheltenham (28) in League Two this season. Cheltenham have scored in 16 out of 19 matches at the EV Charger Points Stadium with only AFC Wimbledon, Fleetwood and Colchester shutting them out – and the AFC Wimbledon and Fleetwood fixtures were all the way back in August and September.

Gillingham are one of the lowest-scoring teams in League Two with an average of 0.86 goals per game – only Carlisle, Tranmere and Harrogate have scored fewer goals than the Gills’ 31. But there has been signs of life in Kent recently. After three blanks in four matches, Gillingham have scored in all of their last five games and they can continue their scoring streak against Walsall.

The Saddlers, despite still being top of the table, are vulnerable currently. Mat Sadler’s men are 23rd in the five-game form table and are crawling towards the finish line. In their last five matches, they have conceded twice to Cheltenham, once to Swindon, once to Carlisle, three times to Grimsby and twice to Bromley. That’s an average of 1.8 goals conceded in their last five matches compared to a season long average of 1.16 goals conceded per game.

Add to the numbers the fact that this match is going ahead despite Walsall having the opportunity to postpone because of international call-ups. They have chosen to play the game this weekend to save any fixture congestion in the run in.

But, playing without regular goalkeeper Tommy Simkin, centre-back David Okagbue and left wing-back Liam Gordon, plus three other players on the periphery of the first team, makes this bet even more appealing.