Ipswich are fast becoming a very frustrating follow for this column. They again failed to turn dominance into a victory, but there was, again, positives to take from the performance. They restricted Wrexham to two shots and 0.04xG all game. This was partially because of Wrexham’s complete lack of ambition to win the game.

The reason why I am recommending to go back to the well with Ipswich, though, is precisely because I think that Hull don’t have that Wrexham-esque resolve in them. Hull have been the biggest entertainers in the Championship this season. They most recently demonstrated that on Saturday with a 2-3 defeat to QPR, but this is the latest in a long line of high scoring encounters.

Especially with Hull being at home, there is something of a compulsion for the Tigers to carry the fight to Ipswich, but I suspect that could be their downfall. Ipswich have shown plenty of times recently that if they do get given space, they are more than capable of putting teams to the sword. Ipswich’s last two away games have been 4-1 wins, and this demonstrates my point precisely.

This is more an anti-Swansea stance than a pro-Derby one, though Derby have just come off the back of the a five match winning streak themselves, so are in good form.

Swansea have just confirmed Vitor Matos as their new manager, so they do at least have some new leadership in the building, though it would be fair to say that the level of experience in the dugout probably remains similar. Matos may well turn out to be a great long term appointment, but any impact that he could have on this game would most likely be psychological and subconscious.

Swansea are down at the bottom of a lot of form indicators right now. They have lost three in a row in the league, not won in five in all competitions, 21st in the expected points table across the season as a whole, and they have only won the xG battle in a match once in their last 10 matches.

Derby might feel a bit shell-shocked here having looked totally set to extend their winning run to six matches on Saturday, as they were 2-0 up at home to Watford going into the final quarter. However, a capitulation meant that they lost 2-3, and whilst that can be a negative here, it could also work for us in that concentration levels will be redoubled for this match.

Derby have been well organised and hard to beat for a number of weeks now, and whilst losing Carlton Morris to injury is a blow, it gives Patrick Agyemang the opportunity to take up that #9 mantle, and bring in a different attacker to provide something else. Derby have only lost one of their last six away games in the league, which makes this double chance price very appealing.

There are many reasons why I want to side with Watford here. Their form since the appointment of Javi Gracia has been excellent, especially at home. Indeed, Watford have the third best home record in the competition, and this particular bet has only lost once so far this season in Watford home matches.

They have won five of their eight home matches, and though Preston are above Watford in the league table in terms of actual points won, Watford swap places with Preston when looking at the expected goals table so far this season - so the Hornets’ performances have generally been of a higher standard.

Watford also have the benefit of performing that remarkable late comeback and win against Derby on Saturday. This will provide them with a great deal of confidence and momentum going into this match, and what will please Gracia is that they have now gone six matches in a row, and nine out of 10, in getting on the scoresheet.

Preston were totally outplayed by Blackburn on Friday night. It is the first time that I have watched Preston and thought that they were lacking in more than just outright quality, but the injuries and suspensions at the top of the pitch seem to have hurt them. They also really missed Harrison Armstrong in midfield with his extra athletic ability, he has a muscle injury and is a doubt for this match, too. Preston have won only twice away from home so far this season, and I think Watford are value for the win here.

This could be a really good game. Saints came back from the international break in confident mood, scoring four goals in nine minutes against Charlton. That makes it three wins in a row for Southampton under Tonda Eckert and straightaway makes them a very dangerous beast, because it is clear how many good players they have in their squad.

Leo Scienza has made a huge difference to Southampton, which has helped Adam Armstrong, and the introduction of Casper Jander, Finn Azaz, and Tom Fellows has really helped the supply line as well. They remain a top six side in terms of their expected points throughout the season, and they are now starting to catch up with their underperformance of their xG, which is the second highest total in the league behind Coventry.

Leicester still find a knack of scoring goals on a regular basis, so whilst their expected goals total is nowhere as good as Southampton’s, they do match it with their actual output. What this means in this case is that they have found the net in eight of their nine away matches so far this season.

Meanwhile, Southampton, despite thrashing Charlton, still managed to concede a goal, continuing their remarkable run of 15 out of 19 of their matches this season ending BTTS-Yes.