Here come the Blades.

As modern parlance goes, Sheff Utd are so back. Chris Wilder has taken a bit of time to lay the groundwork, but now, it appears that he has unlocked something in the squad that has enabled them to start playing with great confidence.

They have won four in a row now and are already five points clear of the relegation zone as a result, and the talk of the town is now about how close they can get to the top six. A win here would do their mission for the play-offs a world of good, and Norwich seem to provide a good foil for that, given their current predicament.

Norwich continue to await the kind of kick that Sheffield United are enjoying at the moment. It did look as though they might be getting back-to-back wins as they led Watford twice at Vicarage Road on Saturday, but they conceded three goals again and allowed the Hornets to kick on and win the game.

The price is fine for United, a similar price to their match against Portsmouth, and that was off the back of some indifferent results, whereas they now have four wins in a row under their belt. That Pompey match illustrates why this is a bet as well. United have been restricting their opponents at Bramall Lane to very little of late; the last three home matches have seen opponents create 0.37, 0.09, and 0.74 xG respectively, whilst United have scored 4, 3, 3, and 3 in their last four.

I am still against Sheffield Wednesday, especially in spots where their opponents look to be in good form and are playing in a high-energy, physical way. Watford’s forwards in particular are youthful and dynamic, and that is really going to test Wednesday’s stamina.

We have spoken before about the concerns around Wednesday having to use the same players week-in/week-out, and that has got to start having a negative effect on results and performances, especially as the matches continue to be in this three-per-week format.

They were on course for another loss on Saturday until Blackburn’s lack of drainage came to the fore again. In terms of completed matches, they have lost four in a row, and they haven’t won in twelve; they also haven’t scored more than once in an away Championship match since September. They do average 1.1 xG per away game, but they also concede 1.9 xG, which is only encouraging for Watford.

The Hornets showed their sting going forward against Norwich, coming back twice to win 3-2, and they have a nice xG differential at home of +0.53, with their xG for of 1.7 showing that they are regularly creating enough chances to score at least twice. They have won six of their ten home league games, and are unbeaten at home in seven in a row.

I was surprised to see the goal expectancy quite so low here, especially given both teams’ recent results.

Starting with the away side, Huddersfield have scored and conceded in each of their last five League One matches, with 22 goals in those five matches, over four per match. They have conceded in eight straight league matches, and their xG data suggests that they have become more open and attacking recently.

Their seasonal expected goals data has them creating 1.5 xG and conceding 1.2 xG, but changing that sample to the last 10 matches sees them creating 2 xG and conceding 1.5 xG, an average of 3.5 xG in their matches, actual goals scored in those 10 matches equals 3.7, all way above the line needed here.

Northampton have seen their last six league matches have more than one goal as well. They do have lower goal expectancies than Huddersfield, but they are still very respectable numbers. They average 1.94 goals per game this season, a low average, but the xG is 2.4 over the same period. Again, looking at the last ten matches, there has been an improvement, 2.7 goals per game and 2.6 xG.

It seems to me that this price might be based on seasonal data rather than taking into account the rise in goals and chances for both teams more recently.

There are chances written all over this game, and I am expecting both teams to get in on the act here.

Starting with the visitors, their last two matches have been in cup competitions, but there have been 13 goals in those two matches. I am going to concentrate on league data here, but it is worth bearing in mind that they are in that rich vein of goals more recently, too.

In League Two, Salford average 1.33 goals per game and have conceded 1.39. However, this is lower than might be expected with their xG data suggesting that they should’ve scored over 1.8 goals per game, but also conceded over 1.5 goals per game.

This means that chances are being created and conceded to allow both teams to score twice, never mind once. Salford haven’t been converting their chances well enough in the league, but I hope that the muscle memory from the cup competitions will help this to kick in.

Fleetwood haven’t had that issue as badly. BTTS has landed in Fleetwood’s last nine matches in all competitions. They scored twice against Luton in the FA Cup in their impressive progression, and their averages for both goals for and against in league play are great for a BTTS bet, 1.5 for and 1.44 against. This matches up really well with their xG data, 1.53 xG for and 1.57 xG against, so there are lots of indicators for BTTS here.