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Brighton v Ajax
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Date: Thursday 26th October
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Competition: Europa League
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 2
Brighton will be hoping to secure their first-ever European win on Thursday night as they host a struggling Ajax side at The Amex. Both teams have struggled in the Europa League this year, with the Seagulls finding themselves bottom of the group with one point and the Amsterdam giants just ahead after securing two draws. A win for either side would see a real shake-up in the Group B standings.
The Seagulls are in immense form in the Premier League, sitting in seventh place, and boast the third most goals scored in the campaign. Surprisingly, there seem to be issues beneath the golden surface as the hosts find themselves winless in their last five fixtures in all competitions.
Ajax, however, are a whole different story, facing a situation of disarray and in dire need of a turnaround. The usual Dutch giants are second from bottom in the Eredivisie, in the relegation zone – seriously unfamiliar territory for Ajax. Granted, they have played two fewer games than the majority of teams but they’re on a run of four straight losses following a chaotic 4-3 loss to Utrecht at the weekend. There needs to be some serious action to turn their season around, starting with this European clash.
The first level comes in at a nice price of 4/1, whilst the second level builds on the first to create a slightly higher odds option, at 10/1.
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Brighton’s leaky defence becoming a concern?
The Seagulls have put on some entertaining spectacles so far this season scoring a whopping 26 goals across all competitions. Sitting in a respectable seventh place in a very competitive Premier League campaign, De Zerbi will be proud of the results his players have fought for this season.
Although a red flag, that’ll surely be in the Brighton coach’s mind, will be their rather concerning defensive performance so far this term. Brighton have conceded 18 goals in the league this season, the fourth-worst record in the league, only ahead of Sheffield United, Burnley and Bournemouth, all of whom are facing a relegation scrap. There are definitely some cracks at the back and no doubt their defensive injury absences have contributed to that record.
Brighton’s maiden season in European football in their 122-year history has got off to a mixed start. They do sit bottom after a disappointing 3-2 loss in their opening game to AEK Athens and a 2-2 draw with Marseille, coming back from 2-0 down in France. The quality is there for sure, it’s about piecing those magical De Zerbi pieces together again to find their rhythm, and there is no better opponent for them to face in Europe currently than Ajax – never thought we’d be saying that…
Brighton team news
Robert De Zerbi’s side’s weekend fixture against Manchester City not only had bad fortune in the result, but it also saw two injury blows. Danny Welbeck was forced off in the first half through injury and that was followed by Solly March’s exit in the closing half after being stretchered off.
There hasn’t been any concrete confirmation on the extent of either of these injuries but it looks like Solly March is set to face a lengthy period on the sidelines, a real blow for the Seagulls. Both of these latest injuries are accompanied by Pervis Estupinan, Tariq Lamptey, Jakub Moder, and Julio Enciso who will all be sidelined for this match.
Brighton have seemed to cope decently so far with a fairly extensive injury list, a testament to their quality squad depth, but with recent results, there’s no doubt this situation will be adding to the nerves.
Never been a better time to face the Dutch giants
Ajax are enduring their worst run since the introduction of professional football to the Netherlands in 1954 and currently are without a permanent manager after departing with Maurice Steijn earlier this week. Hedwiges Maduro has been appointed caretaker manager whilst recruitment is underway, starting with this fixture against Brighton.
Ajax have found some more ‘joy’ in Europe so far this season after collecting two points from their first two games in the group stages. An exciting 3-3 draw at home against Marseille in their campaign opener and later held to a 1-1 draw by AEK Athens – it seems as though the Dutch giants cannot hold onto a lead at the moment.
This will be the first meeting between these sides and will mark Ajax’s 33rd meeting against an English team in European competitions. Of those previous 32 meetings, the visitors have seen wins on only nine occasions while suffering 15 defeats – perhaps not the most convincing numbers to partner up with their current struggles. But with their hosts also struggling to find their feet in Europe, there could be an opportunity to capitalise on.
Ajax team news
Ajax’s starting side seems fairly unaltered through injuries but there are still some absences for this week’s fixture.
Ajax must do without Gerónimo Rulli, Ahmetcan Kaplan, Sivert Mannsverk and Steven Berghuis who are all spending time on the sidelines after picking up injuries in the first games of this year’s campaign.
Brighton v Ajax Cheat Sheet
The Brighton v Ajax Cheat Sheet is an amazing tool for crafting bet builders crammed with value.
These Cheat Sheets break down key statistics for both sides, such as how many corners a team takes and concede, how many shots they get away, and how many cards they and their opponents pick up – perfect for European clashes.
All the information across different leagues all in one place. This is all partnered with depth on individual players for insights on specific bet builder legs.
They are designed to give users a greater understanding of what to expect from individual players and the teams, and it breaks down all the essential stats any punter could need. Let’s get right into the tips …
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ABC’s 4/1 Brighton v Ajax bet builder
⚽ Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.50
Brighton’s matches this season have been filled with goals, as both teams have found the net in an astonishing 11 out of their 12 games across all competitions. This trend can be attributed to their potent attack and their somewhat lacklustre defence, as they are still searching for their first clean sheet this season.
A similar story holds true for the Dutch visitors. They have managed to keep just one clean sheet this season, which occurred in a lacklustre 0-0 draw against Fortuna Sittard at the beginning of September.
Conceding 16 goals in seven league fixtures doesn’t paint a picture of a strong defence, and this fact doesn’t bode well for Hedwiges Maduro as he prepares to face the third-highest scoring team in the Premier League.
Considering that this scenario has played out in 19 out of the 24 combined matches involving both teams, there appears to be definite value in these odds
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
⚽ Over 3.5 goals
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Odds: 1.85
A testament to the research above, these teams clearly love goal fests and with the rest of Group F looking to turn into a scrappy affair for qualification, there’s definitely a high chance of goals.
Brighton, in particular, have exhibited remarkable offensive prowess this season, averaging a commendable 2.44 goals per game. However, there is cause for concern as their expected goals conceded stands at 2.00 per game in the Premier League, and their vulnerability in Europe is evident, having conceded five goals in just two matches.
It appears that their defence struggles to find its footing in the early stages of the game, resulting in the majority of opportunities and goals conceded, with four out of five goals allowed in the Europa League coming in the first half.
Ajax, on the other hand, have displayed vulnerability in defence but still showcase promise in the attack, averaging 1.75 goals per game in the Eredivisie and scoring four goals in two Europa League matches. Their leaky defence only adds to the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🧤 Brighton goalkeeper to make 2+ saves
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Odds: 1.73
Jason Steele or Bart Verbruggen will be in net tonight, the former has started the first two in the competition.
Across all competitions, Steele faces an average of 5.20 shots on target per 90 of which 3.20 of these force him to make a save, a fairly strong statistic to support this selection.
Brighton are looking increasingly worrying at the back and are allowing more chances each game.
The last time Brighton faced less than four shots on target dates back to their 3-1 victory over Newcastle at the start of September – including some high shot counts from the likes of AEK Athens (six), Manchester City (seven) and Aston Villa (nine).
Ajax may be having issues converting chances into goals, but are boasting a respectable 4.75 shots on target per game in the Eredivisie and registered a total of 12 shots on target across both European games – we expect Steele or Verbruggen to be called into action at least twice.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚩 Over 4.5 Brighton corners
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Odds: 1.22
Another strong aspect of Brighton’s attacking play this season is through their danger at corners. They have taken the ninth-highest number of corners in the Premier League this season (49) and average taking 5.33 corners per fixture.
These numbers are crushed by their totals in the Europa League, however, after racking up 11 corners in their outing against AEK Athens and a respectable five corners in Marseille.
Coming up against an Ajax side who see an average of 11 corners a game. Granted, the majority of these are made up of Ajax set pieces but up against the likes of Kaoru Mitoma and Ansu Fati on the wings, there’s plenty of opportunities to build on that reasonably vulnerable Ajax defence.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
ABC’s 10/1 Brighton v Ajax bet builder
⚽ Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.50
With so much success upfront for Brighton this season, there is also still room for growth.
Brighton rank fifth in the Premier League for the number of big chances missed, with a total of 15.
This statistic underlines their capacity to create significant goalscoring opportunities, highlighting their offensive threat. The odds of Brighton scoring at least one goal this evening are set at 1.04, making it highly unlikely that Ajax keep them from finding the net.
Following a period marked by lacklustre performances, Hedwiges Maduro is eager to guide his team back to their rightful position, and it all begins with a strong performance at The Amex.
Even if they don’t secure a positive result (which is nearly imperative in this situation), Maduro aims to give the fans a glimpse of the team’s potential, and that should include, at the very least, finding the back of the net.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
⚽ Over 3.5 goals
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Odds: 1.85
Games with these teams this year have produced enticing spectacles to watch and have provided great entertainment for neutrals.
Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their Premier League games this season. This outcome was also achieved in both of their Europa League games so it’s really not too difficult to picture a fixture that generates four goals, mirroring that of their other European fixtures.
86% of Ajax games have seen at least three goals or more. To add to this, as mentioned earlier with Brighton’s tendency to go behind early on the game, four out of seven of Ajax’s fixtures in the Eredivisie have seen at least two goals before half time. This game is destined for goals.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🧤 Brighton GK to make 2+ saves
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Odds: 1.73
After picking up four goals at the weekend and forcing three saves from the Utrecht goalie, Ajax should have some confidence up front.
Steven Bergwijn has started to find some form with two goals in his last three outings, alongside Brian Brobbey, who has netted on three occasions this season.
The Amsterdam giants are averaging 13.37 attempts at goal per game. 2+ saves for the Brighton keeper is a value selection at 1.73.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚩 Over 4.5 Brighton corners
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Odds: 1.22
Brighton home games this season have averaged an impressive 11.8 corners, slightly edging out the Premier League average of 10.7, with the majority of these being whipped in by the Seagulls.
Ajax away fixtures have also found themselves notorious for corners galore with an average of 11 per game, this includes conceding seven corners against AEK Athens a few weeks ago, and conceding six at the weekend in their defeat to Utrecht. In fact they have conceded at least four corners in seven of their nine games across all competitions this term.
It’s likely more corners are on the way in this one.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet re
🟨 Over 4.5 cards
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Odds: 2.30
Neither side has a very impressive disciplinary record, and with such vital points at stake for both sides, we expect both passion and tempers to rise to fuel a three-point worthy performance.
The hosts have accumulated 25 yellow cards this season, the sixth highest total in the Premier League, which averages out at 2.78 cards per game.
These trends are mirrored in their European games after picking up four yellows in both of their fixtures so far, a very promising statistic for our bet builder.
Ajax have been slightly more disciplined, accumulating 1.75 cards per 90 in the Eredivisie is a respectable figure.
But once again, European nights tell a different story. Ajax have picked up three yellows and a straight red card across their two fixtures and with Brighton being such a frustrating side to play against, this game could be a card fest.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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