There’s nowhere better to start our bet builder than with this solid pick of Marcus Rashford to have one or more shots on target. The English International has been in flying form, especially since the turn of the year and he’s racked up a huge amount of efforts on goal. This particular selection has now landed in 20 of the last 22 Premier League matches, a stunning record. It is a no-brainer pick in my opinion and his eye for goal has been as good as ever in recent weeks having had 9 SoT’s in the previous four games. A goal from the in-form striker will also see this selection home and that’s something I believe could well happen. Rashford has now bagged sixteen goals in total in the PL and is the fifth-highest scorer in the competition.

Erik Ten Hag has utilised Rashford predominantly out on the left wing and through the middle as a central striker. Nevertheless, the SoT numbers have remained consistent all year long which is why I feel this pick has to be selected here. He’s also outperforming his xG for the season which is at 13.0 in the PL. This clearly displays how he’s constantly putting himself in goalscoring positions on the field of play even if not managing to score. His last four games for xG stand at 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, and 0.4, again some excellent attacking numbers.

We have another selection from the player prop markets and it’s the Japanese attacking midfielder Mitoma to have one or more shots on target. De Zerbi is set to name a changed team to the one that faced Wolves at the weekend. All the media reports suggest Mitoma will be straight back into the lineup here having proven so crucial to the team this season and started 18 of the last 19.

So, let’s delve into the stats on this one. Mitoma has now had one or more shots on target in 15 of his last 17 starts, with some outstanding attacking output. What I’ve found so impressive is the accuracy of the shots taken, out of the 35 shots he’s had in the whole season, 17 of these have been on target. That equates to a 48.57% SoT ratio, meaning nearly half of his shots taken to end up on target or even in the back of the goal! He’s been a pivotal player in this Brighton side and has become a mainstay in the team since forcing his way in back in November. In this time he’s notched seven goals in total from an xG of 4.8. This goes to prove he’s done some unexpected things this campaign, much like the screamer he scored at the King Power in January of this year!

He’s spent most of his time playing out on the left wing in a system with inverted wingers. This has given the winger the opportunity to cut in onto his favoured right foot and often have efforts on goal from range, as well as in the box. Diogo Dalot is the most likely player he’ll be facing in his 1 on 1 battle down the left side and I fancy he may well get the better of this duel. Currently, Mitoma averages 2.4 successful dribbles per game which is the fifth highest of all players in the PL. If he can skip by an opponent in this fixture then this will give us further chances of efforts on goal as he often finds himself on the scene in the attacking third.

Here’s our big value play in the bet builder, Solly March to commit 2+ fouls in the match. Probably not what you expected but there are plenty of reasons to support this selection. First of all, March has committed the 7th most fouls of any player in the PL this season! Quite a staggering statistic but it’s true! 46 fouls he’s made in total and in what I imagine will be another tight game between the two, I fancy March to make a couple of fouls. Whether it be a cynical challenge or a tactical pull back on an opponent, these all count as fouls, and March is one of the prime candidates to do so.

This pick has been a winner regularly in recent weeks with March making 2+ fouls in each of his previous three matches. He even made 2 against Wolves at the weekend having played just 55 minutes. I envisage that he’ll play the vast majority if not all of this one with so much on the line. He earnt a well-deserved rest in the previous game as his side were 5-0 up at the time of being substituted. We should have no worries about him starting the match as March is one of just a few players who have started every single game for their club this season.

Jumping back into the stats, March has committed 2+ fouls in 11 of his last 18 games so we’re certainly on the right side of the value! Up against Man Utd who are likely to be a tough opponent, there’s going to be ample opportunities for the bet to be a winning one. So, fingers crossed he’s in the mood to continue the bad boy behavior and make the 2 fouls we need!