The Foxes have been vying with Leeds at the top of the performance data charts all season long. For the majority of the season Leicester have been at the top of the xG for (xGF) and xG against (xGA) charts.

Looking at the data since the turn of the year, Leicester are still strong in terms of chance creation, but they are behind Leeds and Ipswich in that metric. 24.2 xGF in 12 matches is still excellent, just a touch over 2 xGF per match, but they are only 7th for xGA in the same period.

This might suggest that Bristol City have a chance of getting at Leicester, and that may well be the case. However, the Robins’ data since the turn of the year suggests that creating good chances is something that they have struggled to do over that period.

Indeed, their xGF total is just less than 1 xGF per game, meaning they would be overperforming if they averaged a goal a game. It is likely that they will need to score at least one to get anything out of this game, likely two.

Defensively, they have been fairly solid, but not to a top half standard, more in keeping with their mid table position.

The data would suggest, as expected, that Leicester are the better team overall, and indeed, it looks as though Bristol City could struggle to take advantage of a potential weakness in Leicester, so the visitors should be favoured for the win.

The run-in is here and Leicester will look to Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to lead them forward until the end of the season. The midfielder has played the most minutes of any outfield player other than Harry Winks, and if anyone has a good chance of playing 90 minutes to give this market its best chance then it is him.

He has the second-highest number of shots on target in the Leicester squad, and averages 0.78 per 90.

From a Bristol City perspective, the pickings are fairly slim. Jason Knight has done well for the Robins in a more advanced role than he played at Derby, but his shot on target ratio is poorer than Anis Mehmeti’s.

The former Wycombe winger likes to cut in from the left to shoot. He has also been floating more centrally under Liam Manning and that extra time in front of goal seems to have impacted his shot data. He is now the club’s most frequent shot on target merchant, but his price is yet to reflect that.

At longer odds, both Wilfred Ndidi and Rob Dickie also appeal, but neither are particularly good bet builder selections. They may be worth small singles at 2.05 and 2.15 respectively.

Though Leicester are fancied for the match, the Foxes’ corner data isn’t strong, especially away from home.

Maresca’s side average only 3.68 corners away from the King Power, and concede 5, on a per game basis. It isn’t a very high concession rate either, which means that the corner line expectancy is quite low and a bet on the overs is not recommended overall.

However, Bristol City could be underpriced in the corner match bet market and in their own totals. They average 5.63 corners per match at Ashton Gate, and with Leicester also conceding 5 or more there is potentially room on a bet builder for a pro-Robins corners stance.

Harry Winks broke a long streak of fouling just before the international break. The hope is that he has had time to reflect on that and realise that he needs to get back to fouling here.

Winks had gone 10 consecutive matches with at least one foul committed, indeed, nine of those ten matches saw him concede exactly two fouls. With Jason Knight likely to play centrally for Bristol City, and he is being fouled over twice a game on average, there is a strong chance that Winks will be one of those charged with stopping the Bristol City energy man.

On the other side of that exact same coin, Joe Williams will have to try and stop Dewsbury-Hall. The Leicester man is one of the division’s most frequent central dribblers and allowing him to carry the ball to the edge of your area is something that must be stopped.

Williams is Bristol City’s most frequent fouler, and to find him at a backable price is great to see. He has gone 3, 2, 0, 2, 2 in terms of number of fouls committed in his last five matches.