The Robins are in excellent form in The Championship. Unbeaten in 12, including FA Cup, and with some strong performance data suggesting that Nigel Pearson’s side are backing up those results with something that is repeatable. They have won the xG battle in six of their last eight matches and after going over 450 days without a penalty they have had two in consecutive matches!

There is a slight concern over central defence for the rest of the season with Rob Atkinson now ruled out for the remainder, but they should be fine for this match at least with Zak Vyner and Tomas Kalas being experienced enough to cope with the challenge.

Pearson seems to have solved the problem of getting the right balance of youth and experience and attack and defence that had been haunting him for at least a year. There have been times where the Robins were a guaranteed both teams to score pick because of the cavalier nature of their play, but the double-pivot of Matty James and Joe Williams provides that central defence with extra support and also allows the super-talented Alex Scott a bit more freedom to affect the final third. Mark Sykes and Nakhi Wells have been in excellent form this season as well and can threaten Manchester City on the break.

I should state that I still expect Manchester City to go through, but there are some generous prices on the handicaps for Bristol City. Having had a look at the results of Manchester City in the FA Cup over the last few years I found a number of matches from a similar stage 4th/5th/6th rounds away at clubs of a similar standing to Bristol City to see what the results had been:

Huddersfield 0-0 Man City – 2017
Cardiff 0-2 Man City – 2018
Wigan 1-0 Man City – 2018
Swansea 2-3 Man City – 2019
Sheff Wed 0-1 Man City – 2020
Swansea 1-3 Man City – 2021

Manchester City had won four of the six that I found, with one draw and one defeat. Even in the wins though Man City didn’t win by over a two goal margin. The handicap line is set at Bristol City +2 as greater than even money, which strikes me as a generous price.

This means that Bristol City +3 is a backable price in our Bet Builder and as stated above, this is a handicap that hasn’t been covered by Man City in those recent FA Cup ties.

The next addition to the builder is for a Manchester City goal contribution.

For all that I think Bristol City have a chance, there is also a good chance that Man City will score multiple goals. Kevin De Bruyne is still doubtful for the start of the match, although Guardiola has said that he’s getting better, so some of the threat has to come elsewhere in the midfield.

Bernardo Silva is a possibility but his xG+xA numbers, expected goal contribution, are much lower than Ilkay Gundogan’s over the course of the season so far.

The German international has an expected goal contribution figure of 0.43 so far this season, which approximately translates to a goal contribution every two games. With City such strong favourites here he is a much more palatable price to add into our bet.

What we can expect though is for Manchester City to dominate possession. They do against most outfits so against a Championship side, even one that uses the ball well themselves we can expect the Citizens to have around 65-70% possession on the night.

This can mean, though doesn’t always, more tackles and more fouls for the opposition. Alex Scott leads the way for getting involved in fouls, both committing them and being fouled himself, and I expect there to be a degree of protection around the teenager from his more experienced teammates. Scott will make a foul, but he is very short in the market.

Just behind Scott in fouls per game for the season is Joe Williams. Williams will find himself in the heat of the battle in midfield. If De Bruyne plays, Williams will most likely be the one tasked with keeping tabs on him, but even if not then Williams will be a busy man. I expect him to have to make at least one foul, and he is double the price of Scott.