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Bristol City v West Ham Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Bristol City v West Ham Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Monday 15 January, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Bristol City v West Ham

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Kick Off: Tuesday 16th January at 19:45
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: BBC One

Here at Andy's Bet Club, we're all over the FA Cup Third Round Replays with the site featuring FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. It's not just the FA Cup though, with a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond.

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It would be fair to say that one club would have wanted this replay more than the other. Bristol City did well to earn the draw at the London Stadium and have every reason to fancy their chances back at Ashton Gate.

West Ham fans would surely love a real tilt at the FA Cup. Having proven themselves in cup competition in Europe last year and emerged as a seemingly stronger unit in this season, challenging the top six in the Premier League as well as progressing in the Europa League, they should be amongst the leading contenders for a domestic cup. 

West Ham could've seen off the tie in the first half of the original match as they opened the scoring in the 4th minute and proceeded to dominate the play, Pablo Fornals having a presentable chance ten minutes later. However, the way that Bristol City grew into the game and matched the Premier League side in the second half was a really encouraging sign for the Championship club.

The Robins lost to Preston at the weekend though in a display lacking that bit of quality. This could be their Achilles’ heel over the tie as a whole, but it is interesting that West Ham haven’t played since the original tie and therefore should be fresh and prepared for the challenge.

There is some good data from the first match and from across the season about these two teams that can be used to construct some pointers for a bet builder.

Bristol City v West Ham Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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⚽️ Match stats: The battle between mid-table Championship and mid-table Premier League

90 minutes generally isn’t a big enough sample size to determine which of the two teams is better at football, or, should we say, to measure the gap between two teams. Sometimes, a poorer team generally can defeat a team that is ostensibly better than them, this is the nature of low-scoring games, and why the likes of basketball, rugby, or handball are much more unlikely sports to see upsets in. The reason that this is being mentioned is that, obviously, one would expect West Ham to be better than Bristol City. However, the result in the first match shows us that level of unpredictability, and it is especially interesting in this case because these are two teams that occupy the space around the median of the leagues that they represent. Bristol City are perhaps slightly poorer in attack than the average Championship side. They sit 18th for goals scored and shots on target, and 16th for xG created in the Championship, but make up for that shortfall defensively with the 5th least goals conceded and 7th best xG conceded in the division. Meanwhile, West Ham are slightly top half for goals scored but slightly bottom half for xG created and exactly the same for goals conceded, slightly top half for actual goals but bottom half for xG conceded. The Hammers, therefore, have been overperforming their performance metrics, but this is fairly typical of David Moyes's sides, who often pride themselves on being good in the boxes, certainly from a defensive perspective. Bringing this all together then, we have a situation where the midpoint of the Championship is taking on the midpoint of the Premier League. Given the struggles of newly promoted sides from the Championship to the Premier League in 23/24 we are aware of the definite gap in quality over the course of a longer period of time, but Bristol City have already shown that this can be overcome over the course of 90 minutes. But can lightning strike twice? West Ham are likely to field an even stronger lineup for the game this time, whereas Bristol City are likely to keep the same XI that played last time and also at the weekend, so there could be a little bit of fatigue there for them too.

Predictions:

⚽ West Ham to win @ 1.85

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.80

🎯 Shooting stats: Knight is the king of shots for Bristol City

Jason Knight only joined in the summer from Derby County, but has established himself as a vital cog in the Bristol City attack. Playing as a #10 just in behind Tommy Conway he has found the freedom to shoot and create, but it is his shooting that is of most interest here. He has almost double the number of shots of any other Bristol City player, albeit from many more minutes than his competition. Indeed, Anis Mehmeti and Tommy Conway slightly shade Knight for shots per 90, but the Irish international is a bigger price than either of them in the market because of that, so it is worth sticking to Knight to add into a bet builder. From a West Ham perspective, it depends on who Moyes decides to send into battle for him. There will be no Lucas Paqueta after his injury in the original tie turned out to be quite serious, and Mohammed Kudus is at the African Cup of Nations. This leaves Danny Ings likely to be called upon to fill a central role. The experienced forward certainly knows where the goal is, but it is difficult to include him in bets when we can’t be sure of his selection or form. Said Benrahma is West Ham’s highest shot per 90 merchant, but the bookmakers are fully aware of that and he is priced accordingly. The value could lie with Pablo Fornals. The Spaniard is likely to line up as a wide forward but we know that he prefers to drift infield, and actually in limited minutes this season he has a 1.94 shots per 90 rate, which is useful for his price. The issue is that he is often replaced, but West Ham’s lack of depth in forward areas at the moment could ensure that Fornals gets longer than he usually might to fire those shots off.

Predictions:

⚽ Jason Knight to have 2+ shots @ 1.36

⚽ Pablo Fornals to have 2+ shots @ 1.80

🚩 Corner stats: West Ham concede a lot of corners away from home

Bristol City aren’t a strong corners side at home in general. They just about average more than their opponents at Ashton Gate, but it isn't a significant margin. However, West Ham, in the Premier League, concede almost double the number of corners that they manage away from home, and that concession total is the second highest in the Premier League. West Ham probably back themselves to defend those situations for the most part with their strong average height and very strong individual defenders in the air. However, the fact that Bristol City are the underdog for corners here may slightly underestimate the home team.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 3.5 Bristol City corners @ 1.35

⚽ Bristol City corner match bet @ 2.30

🟨 Card stats: Combative midfield on show

Bristol City have the second least number of cautions in the Championship, at only around 1.5 received per game. West Ham are also in the bottom half of the Premier League for yellow cards, and they were near the bottom of that particular tree last season as well. From an individual perspective, Bristol City’s two highest-booked players actually would be the selections here. Cameron Pring will be up against it as whoever lines up against him, be it Fornals, or Benrahma, or even Jarrod Bowen, he will have a tough match, especially as a naturally attacking player. He has the highest foul total for City as well as the most cards. Joe Williams is the other Robins selection. He has played fewer minutes than Pring, but his foul-per-minute ratio is actually slightly stronger. He has a history of yellow cards and is now up to five for the season in 15 90’s. Tomas Soucek is probably the best bet on the West Ham side. He has only 2 bookings for 22 fouls, his teammate Vladimir Coufal is on exactly the same number of fouls at Coufal yet only has two yellows to his name.

Predictions:

⚽ Cameron Pring to be shown a card @ 3.30

⚽ Joe Williams to be shown a card @ 3.75

⚽ Tomas Soucekto be shown a card @ 5.50

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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