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Burnley v Leeds Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Burnley v Leeds Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Thursday 16 October, 20254 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

Burnley welcome Leeds in an early six-pointer in the context of the relegation battle. The Clarets have already beaten Sunderland at home this season and are desperate for a repeat of that result, with that win being their only success of the season so far.

Leeds have avoided defeat in four of their seven Premier League matches so far, which is a steady record for a newly promoted side. They can open up a seven-point gap over their relegation rivals with a win here.

For this Saturday 3pm kick-off, you can check out our Burnley v Leeds Betting Stats for further bet builder insight.

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Burnley v Leeds Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Burnley v Leeds
  • Premier League
  • 15:00
4 Selections @ 2.73

Over 1.5 Goals

I expect this game to be tight in the early stages, but Leeds in particular would be naive not to go for all three points here. Burnley are in a precarious position when it comes to survival already. They’ve performed admirably, but this has only resulted in one win from their seven matches and five defeats.

A win for Leeds wouldn’t quite bury Burnley and condemn them to a season in the Championship, but it would open up a seven-point gap between the sides, which feels significant, even at this early stage of the season.

Burnley themselves can’t continue to rely on their defensive stubbornness, which was so effective in the Championship last season; they’ve already conceded 15 goals in the Premier League, having only conceded 16 across the entirety of the Championship campaign, highlighting the gulf in quality between the two divisions.

Burnley have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches, while Leeds have seen 2+ goals in each of their last three Premier League matches.

Over 3.5 Cards

As I touched on in the Stach explanation, I can see this being quite a feisty affair between two newly promoted sides that will see three points as invaluable, given their respective starts to the campaign.

Leeds are a little better off than Burnley at the moment, having won two and drawn two of their seven Premier League matches, while Scott Parker’s side have collected just four points this term, and conceded the second most goals in the league (15).

Leeds have seen 20 match cards across their seven Premier League matches so far this season (2.85 per game), while Burnley have seen 21 match cards across the same period (3.0 per game).

We’d be looking for a rise in these match card averages, but the referee appointment here is promising when looking for this rise. Tim Robinson is the man in the middle for this clash, and he’s been pretty card happy across his appearances in the Championship (5.50 cards per game) and League One this season (3.0 cards per game).

The two head-to-head meetings between the sides in the Championship last season produced 12 total match cards.

Lyle Foster to Commit 1+ Fouls

Lyle Foster has committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances, with the striker committing 2+ fouls in two of these matches. This takes Foster’s total for the season to 13 fouls committed across his seven appearances (2.05 per 90).

This record is exaggerated as Foster is tasked with chasing down lost causes for Burnley and often has to contend with multiple defenders on his own as the Clarets are slow to get up the pitch when they are able to get the ball forward.

Foster committed three fouls in Burnley’s win over Sunderland last month, so his foul rate stays consistent even if Burnley are going to have more of a foothold in a game, as you would expect them to here against another newly promoted side.

His main opponent is likely to be Joe Rodon, who has shown promise when it comes to winning fouls from opposition centre forwards. Rodon has won six fouls across his seven Premier League appearances so far this season (0.86 per 90).

Anton Stach to Commit 1+ Fouls

Stach has been an important presence in the middle of the park for Leeds. His most obvious asset is his size and strength with Stach holding his own against some of the more accomplished midfielders in the Premier League already this season.

This can occasionally spill over into committing fouls with Stach sinning on 11 occasions this season across his seven Premier League appearances (1.63 per 90). I can see this being quite a scrap, it’s an early six-pointer and Leeds will be aware that Burnley have already registered a win over Sunderland at Turf Moor this term.

Leeds have been committing 10.4 fouls per game in the Premier League so far this season and I’d back them to maintain that average on their trip to Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon. Stach boasts a solid fouls committed record so far this term and will be faced up by Josh Cullen who has won nine fouls across his seven Premier League appearances this season (1.37 per 90).

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📈 Burnley v Leeds Form & Tactics

Burnley have performed admirably across their opening seven matches of the season, but it’s clear they lack the quality to compete every week in the Premier League. There have already been multiple instances of Burnley conceding last-minute goals or giving up leads, which are usually signs that relegation is likely at the end of the season.

One of the most startling metrics from their start to the season is the fact that they’ve already conceded 15 goals in the Premier League. This is notable as Burnley only conceded 16 goals across the entirety of the Championship season last year, highlighting the real jump up in class and quality between the two divisions.

Leeds have also performed well given the circumstances. The newly promoted sides look a lot more prepared for the challenges of Premier League football. This isn’t a guarantee of survival, but I’d expect them to make more of a fight of it than the likes of Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton did last season.

The issue for both these sides is finding a consistent stream of goals - all three of the promoted sides have scored just seven goals across their seven Premier League matches. I’d argue this needs to increase soon as their backlines are not secure enough to see out games through that avenue alone.

Leeds’ best performances so far have come at Elland Road; it’ll be these games that keep them up if they are to survive in the Premier League this season. However, Farke must also target these away games against lesser opposition as an opportunity to pick up crucial points which won’t be common on the road.


📔 Burnley v Leeds Formation & Team News

Burnley have toyed with a few different formations so far this season as Scott Parker attempts to try and make them a tougher side to break down. I think their best defensive performance so far came against Liverpool at Turf Moor, a game they were very unlucky to lose with only Salah’s last-minute penalty splitting the sides.

The Clarets lined up in a 4-2-3-1 against Sunderland, which may be the preferred approach of Scott Parker here, knowing that his side will get more opportunities in the final third than usual. They have also lined up in a few iterations of 5-4-1 throughout the season, which is a strategy more reserved for when they play the elite sides in the Premier League.

Burnley could be without their best player so far this season in Jaidon Anthony, who is a doubt for this game. The winger has registered five goal contributions across his seven Premier League appearances this season (4 goals, 1 assist) and is Burnley’s most likely goalscorer.

Leeds tend to line up in a 4-3-3 and that shouldn’t change here with Daniel Farke eyeing up a victory that would take his side seven points clear of their relegation rivals. Starting goalkeeper Perri is a doubt so Karl Darlow may line up between the sticks on Saturday afternoon as he has been in recent matches. Dan James and Wilfred Gnonto are also doubts for this game.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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