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Burnley v Middlesbrough
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Kick Off: Friday 6th December at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
Another Friday night treat from the second tier as 2nd place Burnley take on 5th place Middlesbrough.
This one has a bit of an irresistible force against the immovable object about it. The home side Burnley have only conceded 6 goals all season, and only 2 at Turf Moor. Boro on the other hand scored 6 goals in one match just two weeks ago and have scored 18 goals in their last 5 games.
⭐ Burnley v Middlesbrough Best Bets
We think it’s worth backing Boro to win this one. FotMob’s xG table has these two sides’ league positions reversed, with Boro ranked 2nd and Burnley in 5th, with 7 points separating them.
There’s no doubt who the better-attacking side is, with Michael Carrick’s men having scored 9 more goals than their opponents, with xG table suggesting that the deficit could have been as many as 13.
In terms of defensive numbers, Burnley have only conceded 6 goals from 13.9xG, whilst Middlesbrough have conceded 21 goals from 16.4xG. The expected totals are not too far apart.
With Boro in free-scoring form, I think this could be a good spot for Burnley’s unsustainable defensive numbers to come to an end.
👕 Burnley v Middlesbrough Predicted XI
🔍 Burnley v Middlesbrough Players to Watch
🟣 Lucas Pires
Porteous had to be patient at the start of the season, as he was not an automatic selection in the side but has managed to establish himself on the right side of a back three in recent weeks. He is in good goalscoring form, with 2 goals in his last 4 games.
The Scotland international is full-blooded in his defensive style, if perhaps a little clumsy at times. Of the 9 games he has started in the league this season, he has picked up 6 yellow cards. He will be up against Koki Saito, who wins over 2 fouls per 90.
🔴 Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz is in sparkling form for Boro, establishing himself as the major creative force in Michael Carrick’s side.
From his last 7 starts, he has scored or assisted in 6 of them, racking up a total of 6 goals and 5 assists.
He has a goal or assist every 0.87 90s, and given we fancy Boro to win this one, Azaz is the most likely goal contributor they have.
📂 Burnley v Middlesbrough Cheat Sheet
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💻 Burnley v Middlesbrough Form and Tactics
Scott Parker has an impressive managerial record at Championship level, winning promotions to the Premier League with both Fulham and Bournemouth.
Despite that record, there is often a sense he doesn’t quite get what he should out of his teams, which seems ridiculous to say. His side are very difficult to score against but only rank 17th in the Championship in Expected Goals for. Their 4-3-3 provides a solid base, with the reliance on their attacking midfield players such as Jaidon Anthony and Jeremy Sarmiento to unlock the door.
This is a battle of two former England midfielders, as Michael Carrick will be in the opposition dugout. Boro have a bit of an underachiever’s vibe about them, quite often winning xG battles but not always accumulating the points they deserve.
They are fun to watch, with plenty of attacking flair from the likes of Finn Azaz, Ben Doak, and Emmanuel Latte Lath, and a pretty consistent 4-2-3-1 formation.
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🏁 Burnley v Middlesbrough Ref Watch
- Referee: Andrew Kitchen
- Kitchen has officiated 10 Championship games so far this season.
- In Championship games, he has shown 3.9 yellow cards per game on average, and 0.1 red cards.
- He refereed Burnley’s goalless draw against QPR, where he only showed one yellow card in the whole game.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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