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Burnley v Preston
Our expert has put together two bet builders for this Saturday’s Championship fixture, level 1 is just shy of 5/1 and level 2 is 11/1.
5/1 Burnley v Preston Bet Builder Level 1
11/1 Burnley v Preston Bet Builder Level 2
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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip
🏆 Burnley to Win
📈 Odds: 1.57
Burnley haven’t necessarily caught too many headlines of late but they have quietly amassed a five-match unbeaten run, including three wins. A reason for them going somewhat under the radar is because these have all been close matches, meaning they gained more traction earlier in the campaign when beating Luton 4-1 and Cardiff 5-0. However, this will serve as perfect preparation for this local derby clash with Preston. Derby games can often turn tight and cagey, and Scott Parker’s men have proved they can negotiate matches of this nature.
Preparations in a different way are also in favour of Saturday’s home side. All Championship clubs had a midweek game; Tuesday in Burnley’s case. They edged past Plymouth at home in what was anything but a classic, but they should’ve won by a greater margin in the words of their manager. Still, this came 24 hours before Preston had their clash with Watford. Wednesday night to Saturday lunchtime is a very quick turnaround for Paul Heckingbottom’s side, especially when facing a stronger opponent.
Finally, the Clarets playing at Turf Moor is a combination which has proved particularly fruitful this season. Burnley are unbeaten at home in Championship action, of which three ended up seeing the home side claim all three points. On the flip side, Preston are not the best on their travels, even if the trip to Burnley will be a short one geographically. They’re winless in league action away from Deepdale, including three or four defeats; conceding three or more in each of those setbacks.
🏆 Burnley to Win the First Half
📈 Odds: 2.20
Local derbies can sometimes be a slow burner in terms of it effectively becoming quite scrappy with little to no rhythm in the game. There is always a fear that this could happen but there is a case to be made to suggest Burnley will be quick out of the blocks this weekend. This was the case in a recent local derby they had at home to Blackburn, when they opened the scoring after ten minutes.
Unfortunately they conceded ten minutes later, but that was from a once in a lifetime long range screamer from Andreas Weimann.
The preparation time factor also has to be considered once again. It may only seem like 24 hours difference, but the fact is Preston played on Wednesday night, meaning they will do a very limited amount of training on Thursday; probably more rest than anything else, being even slightly underprepared against a top opponent is an issue.
Parker’s side have also proved that they can handle the opening stages of games in a much better way compared to their weekend opponents. Across the opening 40-minute segments in Preston’s Championship away encounters this season they have been outscored 5-1. In that same time period, but in Burnley home games, the Clarets have netted four compared to conceding just the one.
🛑 Andrew Hughes to commit 1+ Fouls
📈 Odds: 1.40
Andrew Hughes has been a mainstay at Preston North End since signing from Peterborough United in 2018. Six years on and he is still in the side, meaning he is someone manager Paul Heckingbottom feels as if he can trust.
Since the managerial change, he has flipped between left-sided centre back and left back, and although he is comfortable in both roles, the constant change can’t be ideal in terms of building momentum in one set part of the backline. This could be one reason for him averaging 1.27 fouls per appearance he has made in all competitions this season.
He is likely to play as part of a back three this weekend on account of Preston impressing when switching back to this system in their midweek home victory over Watford.
Nevertheless, he will be left-sided and may well be dragged into the Burnley wide right area. This is where the home side will field tricky winger Luca Koleosho, who has only failed to be fouled in one of his last five displays.
🛑 Lucas Pires to commit 1+ Fouls
📈 Odds: 1.53
Pires appears more comfortable going forward than he is in defensive situations, but it is simply a job he has to do.
The full back has already experienced a Lancashire derby from the Blackburn match earlier this season, and he committed two fouls on that occasion.
The former Santos man has been an ever-present in Scott Parker’s back four and has played a full 90 minutes in all except one game so far.
Only in one of his previous seven club appearances has he failed to make at least one offence; averaging 1.29 fouls per match in the process.
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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip
⚽️ Luca Koleosho to Score Anytime
📈 Odds: 4.00
He opened his goal account in a recent away clash with Leeds but what has been noticeable is that the former Espanyol forward has had at least two shots in each of his previous three appearances at Turf Moor.
Something Koleosho has been excellent at, in regards his shooting, is the accuracy of it in relation to working the goalkeeper. The 20-year-old has a 44.44% success rate when it comes to the amount of his shots actually hitting the target. It is a strong return taking into account others within the squad as well.
Main striker Lyle Foster has recorded 15 shots in league action, yet only three hit the target. Josh Brownhill has hit 14, but only three on target. These are the only two within the Burnley squad to have more shots than Koleosho and he has the best target-hitting ratio in comparison.
🚩 Over 4.5 Burnley Corners
📈 Odds: 1.20
Only four other teams in the division have conceded a greater average number of corners than The Lilywhites with 5.88. There is no doubt Burnley are classed amongst the best at this level, so looking at Preston’s encounters this season against a similar calibre of opponent shows they do allow that kind of opponent to build up the corner count.
Sheffield United had six, Middlesbrough nine and Luton a whopping 13.
Parker’s side have won an average of 5.50 corners across their Championship home fixtures.
🛑 Hannibal Mejbri to commit 2+ Fouls
📈 Odds: 1.91
The former Manchester United man is often a strong candidate to receive a card and in Burnley’s last local derby, versus Blackburn recently, he made a total of four fouls on the day. He also received a yellow card on that occasion, too.
Mejbri also has the role as the presser from midfield, so, in his defence, it is effectively part of his role in the team to challenge the opponent high up the pitch. Such risk and reward passing from Preston will draw him into producing a challenge, which will likely result in fouls from time-to-time.
The last time he played in the Championship during a loan spell with Birmingham City in 2022/23. Over that campaign, he would receive ten yellow cards over the league season. The midfielder received a card in 26.32% of his Birmingham appearances that season, and already he has two Burnley cards this season over only six games he has played.
🛑 Josh Cullen to commit 1+ Fouls
📈 Odds: 1.20
The experienced 28-year-old has only failed to commit a foul in one of his appearances this season, and that should remain the case after Saturday’s local derby.
He also had the second-highest number of yellow cards in the squad last season as they were relegated from the Premier League.
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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