Preston are a difficult side to conquer at Deepdale, as displayed by their home league record, where they have won or drawn 15 of their 17 league games.

Burnley have bigger fish to fry than the FA Cup, with their eyes fixed on an immediate return to the Premier League via the automatic spots, hoping to chase down 2nd-placed Sheffield United.

Both sides have a league game on Tuesday night, but Burnley are away whilst Preston are at home, and the league game does not hold as much weight for North End, who look well set for another Championship campaign next year.

This may lead to some rotation from Scott Parker, which should hand the advantage to the home side.

Preston’s home games have not been goal-heavy this season. The only ground that has seen fewer goals this season is the home of their opponents, Burnley. 71% of North End’s home games have seen 2 goals or less.

79% of the Clarets’ games this season have gone under 2.5 goals. They’ve conceded just 5 goals away from home this season from 17 games. Although we expect some changes to their regular line-up, the principles and tactics will not be deviated from, and these 2 sides have played out 2 goalless draws already this season.

This bet has landed in 17 of Preston’s 22 home games this season in all competitions. They average 2.7 cards per game at Deepdale in the league, and in games against Burnley this season they picked up 4 cards and 2 cards.

Burnley’s opponents in the league this season average 2.1 cards per game, which would be perfect to cover this bet. 9 of 12 opponents in 2025 have been shown 2 or more cards.

The added spice to this game, a local derby for a place in the Quarter Finals of the FA Cup, should see this 1 over the line.

The prices for fouls in this game are understandably quite short, so it is worth looking at the first half for fouls, where the early nerves are likely to be present, and the pace frenetic.

Ali McCann has recently returned from a 2-game suspension, after accumulating 10 yellow cards in the Championship, which immediately catches the eye for a candidate to commit an early foul.

McCann averages 1.6 fouls per 90, and will be operating in an area of the pitch which is likely to be congested. He will also have the task of covering behind an advanced wing back to assist his outside centre back.

We can’t get away from this game possibly meaning a little bit more to Preston than it does to Burnley, despite the local bragging rights on the line.

Preston have a free hit here, and a chance to give meaning to what is otherwise likely to be an uneventful end to the season, with nowhere to go in the league and a stable manager in place.

Burnley have an away trip to Cardiff to navigate just 3 days later, and we expect they will rest some crucial players for a game which has more of a say on their long term future.

We are backing over 1.5 Preston cards in Bet Builder 1, but as we can see from their average of 2.7 cards per home game, and the added spice of the local derby, it’s not unfeasible to think of them picking up 3 cards or more. They have picked up 3 cards or more in 17 games this season.

The referee also plays a factor in this. John Brooks is the man in the middle, usually a Premier League referee. He has shown more cards than any Premier League referee to officiate 3 or more game, and so is an interesting choice for a feisty local derby.

Burnley average 2.2 cards per game away from home in the league this season.

In each of the Lancashire derbies they have played this season, they have picked up at least 2 cards, 3 in each game against Preston and 2 and 4 in the games against Blackburn. They have been shown 2 cards or more in 11 of their 17 Championship away games.

We may see fringe players trying hard to impress in this game, with the reward being a start in an FA Cup Quarter Final if they manage to progress, or more minutes in a promotion campaign. This may lead to over eagerness, and incur the wrath of the referee.

There has been a definite increase in Kesler-Hayden’s attacking output since the New Year, with the wing back taking 15 shots in his last 10 starts. He has registered at least 1 attempt on goal in 11 of his last 13 appearances, including 2 where he only featured as a second half sub.

He had a shot on target in this league game 2 weeks ago, so has form against these opponents, and if a few regulars are rested, Burnley’s defence may not be as formidable as it has been over the course of the league season.