Millwall v Luton Town

Championship

Millwall v Luton Town Cheat Sheet

The early kick-off on Good Friday sees Luton travel south to the Den to face Millwall in an enormous game for both of these sides and Burnley. If the home side avoid defeat, then a Burnley victory would see the Clarets promoted later on Friday afternoon. However, the Lions will be hoping for a victory themselves as they sit in 5th, four points above Norwich who are just outside the playoffs. The visitors still have a slim chance of automatic promotion but shouldn’t be expecting it, despite losing just eight games this season.

Millwall have been impressive this season and despite recent form being a little disappointing (two wins in six), their fans will still be confident of a top-six finish. They are comfortable in the top six, four points above Norwich with seven games to go and they have a favourable run to end the season. Another few wins and focus can switch to the post-season playoffs, where they may play Friday’s opponents – Luton. They have lost just four games at the Den all season, but two of those have been in the last three games although they have not lost consecutive games here since 2020/21. Gary Rowett should not need to change too much from the last game having been impressed with his side’s “really good performance” in the stalemate with West Brom last time out. Andreas Voglslammer should come in ahead of Duncan Watmore, and Jamie Shackleton may be reintroduced in midfield. At the back, Charlie Cresswell is out with an eye injury which will likely see Shaun Hutchinson play.

Luton have been mightily impressive once again. After Nathan Jones left for Southampton, there were concerns that their form may tail off, but former Watford and Forest Green Rovers boss Rob Edwards has continued where he left off. They have some of the best form away from home in the league, picking up 35 points in their 19 games, and only Burnley (37) and Middlesbrough (34) can better Luton’s 31 points from their last 15 games. Their remaining fixtures are kind but they will have to rely on Sheffield United to crumble if they hope to reach the Premier League automatically, given that they are six points behind the Blades having played a game more. Just like Millwall, they will not need to make any changes from their last game, if any at all. Reece Burke, Luke Berry, and Sonny Bradley are the most likely candidates to start that didn’t last time out but even they are unlikely.

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Sunderland v Hull City

Championship

Sunderland v Hull City Cheat Sheet

It was not too long ago that this was a Premier League fixture, and it is even more recently that the pair have met at League One level. Both Sunderland and Hull City have seen new ownership enter the building since and both have aspirations to climb the Championship table and pursue life in the top flight once again in the future.

12th place Sunderland are the hosts for this 5:30 pm kick-off at the Stadium of Light. Newly promoted as the League One play-off winners, the Black Cats have had an encouraging season where frustrations have largely come from individual matches rather than the campaign as a whole. A slim chance of a top-six finish remains for Sunderland, seven points off sixth place Blackburn Rovers and fully in the pack of teams still hoping to break into the play-off places before the season is up. A near-enough faultless last seven games would likely be required in order for that to happen though.

Hull City meanwhile sit five places back from Sunderland and six points worse off. Some Tigers fans may still be monitoring that nine-point gap between themselves and the Championship relegation zone but will like the number of teams currently between them and 22nd place.

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Middlesbrough v Burnley

Championship

Middlesbrough v Burnley Cheat Sheet

This is a huge game for both sides. Burnley have the potential to confirm promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking if they win this match. If Middlesbrough continue to harbour aspirations to do the same then they also need the win here. In all likelihood, a draw for Burnley here at least gets them closer to the inevitable but is no good for Middlesbrough given the gap that has emerged with Sheffield United.

The pressure on the match is one factor that makes the result and the pattern of the match fairly difficult to read. Middlesbrough have generally been exceptional at the Riverside, firing in goals at an unmatched rate since Michael Carrick replaced Chris Wilder. However, one of their recent matches was at home to Stoke, who themselves have been revitalised into one of the division’s better teams of late, and the performance in that match was fairly flat and stifled.

There’s no doubt that Vincent Kompany and his coaching staff will have watched that match for things that they could pick out to keep the Middlesbrough attack under wraps. Burnley have obviously only lost twice all season and they have demonstrated on multiple occasions that they have the ability to keep opponents away from their goal when they need to, albeit they have rarely come up against a team as fluent in attack as Boro.

So there is plenty of evidence that goals are in both sides. Obviously, the top scorer in the division is Chuba Akpom with 25, and his partnership with Cameron Archer, plus support from Marcus Forss, Riley McGree, and Ryan Giles, in particular, have been at the forefront of the danger. Indeed, the performance data tells us that Middlesbrough have created the highest xG of any side in the league since the January transfer window closed, with 19.8xG (with Stoke just behind).

However, Burnley have conceded the lowest xG against over that same period, only 5.5xG against in 10 matches, far ahead of the next best of Sheffield United at 8.3xGA. Both Burnley and Middlesbrough sit in the top 3 of expected points over that period as well.

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