Millwall home games this season have averaged 2.42 goals, with this selection landing in 79% of them. In 2023, they have played eight games here in all competitions and there have been 23 goals with seven of those seeing two or more goals in them. Despite a very good record here this season, they have kept a clean sheet in just 37% of games and have scored in almost three-quarters of them (74%). These two sides met at the end of February and the final score was 2-2.

Luton games are averaging 2.13 goals per game this season, and they have not been involved in a stalemate since right at the start of November. This selection has landed in two-thirds of their games and the Hatters have failed to score in just 21% of their matches. Ten of their last 12 away games have seen two or more goals. This may be a cagey game given the permutations for both sides, but Luton would not take a draw. A victory keeps their slim chances of automatic promotion alive and a defeat, whilst not ideal, should not harm their playoff hopes – which are almost secured.

Tom Bradshaw has been on fire in recent months which has earned him a call-up for the Wales national team. He has scored 14 Championship goals this season, having 2.65 shots per game with 1.09 of those on target. Since the 18th of February, he has played 9 games for Millwall, scoring seven goals, including a hat-trick here against Sheffield United.

In those games, he has had at least one shot in all of them, amassing a total of 23. 11 of those have been on target, with this selection landing in seven of the nine games. These two sides met at the end of February and the Welsh international scored from his only shot, also getting an assist. This continued his excellent record against Friday’s opponents – scoring in four of the five games he has played against the side.

Luton average 3.69 shots on target per game in the Championship this season. Since the 28th of January, they have played 14 games, having at least three shots on target in 13 of them. They have also had at least ten shots in ten of them. The only two sides they have failed to score against in that time are Burnley and Grimsby (in the FA Cup). They had 15 shots with four of them on target against the Lions back in February.

Millwall concede an average of 3.21 shots on target per match in the league. Since Valentine’s Day, they have played ten games, conceding 37 shots at an average of 3.7 per game. Five of those have been at home with this selection landing in four of those. The exception to that was Huddersfield, who had just two from their four shots, despite winning 1-0. Neil Warnock’s side set up for a smash-and-grab that day, which is unlikely to be Luton’s gameplan here. Before that, Swansea (9), Norwich (5), Burnley (3), and Sheffield United (6) all saw this selection land, and they all breached the Millwall goal.

Luton will be seeing this game as a must-win for their own automatic promotion hopes. Away from home this season, they average 4.47 corners per game, and this selection has landed in 53% of those games. In their last six away from Kenilworth Road, four of them have seen the Hatters have four or more corners.

In nine of their last ten matches, they have had four corners and in six of them, they have had six. At home, Millwall concede an average of 4.05 corners per game, giving away at least four in 63% of their games, including in each of the last six here. In the match between these two sides at the end of February, the Hatters had six corners.

If the Black Cats are to gain post-season football, a near-enough perfect record is needed for their final seven matches. The Black Cats’ home record leaves a lot to be desired, especially when their away record is only bettered by four Championship sides. A battling performance away at Turf Moor last Friday secured a 0-0 draw with runaway league leaders Burnley, Sunderland in the process becoming the first team to blank Burnley at home all season.

Sunderland need to feel encouraged by their opponent’s form though. A run of just one win in nine matches is starting to put pressure on Tigers head coach Liam Rosenior, with owner Acun Ilıcalı recently giving a public show of support towards the 38-year-old despite external concerns. Hull are in turn winless on the road since the 2nd of January, with draws coming away at Stoke City, Coventry City and Reading, and defeats coming at the hands of Sheffield United, Norwich City and Bristol City.

Incentivised further by the presence of the Sky cameras, Sunderland will be keen to put on a show and make sure that neutrals are still keeping them in the play-off conversation as April progresses.

Injury issues for Ross Stewart have left this season something of a ‘what if’ for Sunderland fans. The 27-year-old Scot is undoubtedly one of the most complete and influential strikers at the level, and could well have been the difference for the Black Cats between a good mid-table season and an excellent play-off finish.

The Sunderland strike force has not been completely ineffective in Stewart’s absence though. Tony Mowbray on several occasions has deployed a fully fluid frontline of natural wingers before Joe Gelhardt’s arrival has given him that first-choice striker to deploy up top. In 22-year-old Jack Clarke however, Sunderland have a player who is always a threat from wide and central positions. Now a regular starter on the left wing, Clarke’s direct running can be a threat throughout the game. The former Leeds United academy product averages 1.4 shots per 90 from out wide, the majority of his attempts coming from within 18 yards of goal.

As a natural right footer who will drift in from the left channel, Clarke can usually be expected to provide a big attacking influence in a game. There is a good chance as well that as the match progresses and Tony Mowbray makes his substitutions, Clarke may well be pushed further forward into the striker position, a place where nearly a third of his league goals this season have come from.

When bringing all the evidence together it is difficult to side one way or the other on the main markets. The bookmakers have this priced pretty much the same on both sides and very tight in the Over/Under 2.5 goal line as well. I agree with their lines, even if the evidence for goals is strong, it feels like the type of match that will be fairly tight and cagey.

I do think that Middlesbrough will have more of the ball than one might expect against a team that likes to dominate. Burnley only had 48% possession at Norwich and 44% at Swansea, and I think it could be 50-50 here. Middlesbrough average over five shots on target in the Championship, which rises to 6 at home, and whilst Burnley generally keep their opponents under that line, they have been a touch slacker of late with Hull and Sunderland both managing to breach the four or more shots on target line.

With the added incentive that Boro have to win this one, I think that the decent price we are getting on 4 or more shots on target is worth adding to our bet builder.

The pressure of the match has been mentioned a few times and this could lead to fireworks in the middle of the park.

Darren Bond is the referee for this one. He is an experienced ref who has taken 26 Championship matches so far this season. He averages a pretty high 4.15 yellows per match, but, unfortunately, the bookmakers have very much cottoned onto this. The price for over 4.5 cards is odds-on, so that feels far too short.

However, there are some good angles in the individual fouls market. Bond gives an average of 20 fouls per match, and with the capacity Riverside crowd in the house, the tension in the stadium will be palpable. There could be grounds for more fouls than average here.

Having looked into Burnley a few times recently I am still bemused as to why Josh Cullen continues to be priced bigger than many teammates for a foul. The former Anderlecht man has committed at least one foul in his last eight matches, and 15 in 12 overall. His price for one foul definitely does not reflect this record and is a confident shout to add into a bet builder.

Middlesbrough should have really worked on their attacking set pieces ahead of this one, The biggest trouble that Burnley have been in during a match this season, taking away the Manchester City FA Cup quarter-final, has been when Sheffield United pummelled them with an aerial bombardment through attacking free-kicks and corners.

Though Boro don’t quite have the aerial firepower that The Blades did they do have some key men to look for in the opponents’ box. Darragh Lenihan is one of those players. Guaranteed to play 90 minutes, the former Blackburn man is averaging 0.96 shots per match, and if as I suggest, Middlesbrough will focus some attacks in the air from set pieces then it seems more likely that Lenihan will get s shot of some description in this one. He is close to even money so the price is good enough to use in our bet builder.