Liam Rosenior’s style of play so far looks to be filled with risk, which will see Chelsea have more entertaining matches - but also see the Blues needing to put a few goals past their opponents to come away with a victory. 

Chelsea have only kept one clean sheet in their three games with Liam Rosenior in charge - and that was a cheaply earned shutout as Brentford really should have made more of the chances they had.

Goal difference is likely to prove critical in deciding the outcome of the top eight, as only three points separate PSG in third and Barcelona in 15th. Chelsea are one of the sides stuck in that huddle and could do with adding a few goals to their goal difference to give them an edge ahead of their final game, which is a tough trip to Napoli.

Chelsea have scored 3+ goals in two of their three Champions League matches at Stamford Bridge this season, with these hauls coming against Barcelona and Ajax. I think Rosenior will encourage his side to be on the front foot here in what is his most important game since taking charge of the club. 

Chelsea have picked up a yellow card in all three of Liam Rosenior’s matches in charge at the club so far, with the Blues collecting multiple cards in two of those matches. 

This is an important game for Chelsea in the context of the Blues trying to finish in the top eight of the league phase, which would see them avoid a two-legged play off tie, which would add to their already busy schedule at this time of year.

Chelsea have picked up 10 yellow cards across their six matches in the Champions League this season (1.66 per game) and face a Pafos side that have drawn 1+ cards from their opponents in five of their six Champions League matches this term - with the exception of their clash against Bayern Munich.

Liam Rosenior claimed that he would fix Chelsea’s issue when it comes to petulance and discipline, but this looks to be a much deeper-rooted issue at the club, which is directly tied to the youthful nature of the squad.

Chelsea’s frustration in the Champions League this season is evident when looking through their foul numbers, with the Blues committing 10+ fouls in five of their six Champions League matches so far, only falling short of this tally in their game against Bayern Munich, where they committed seven fouls.

Chelsea have exceeded this tally in the other five matches, committing at least 13 fouls in all of these games. This tamed Chelsea’s overall foul average in the Champions League to 14.3 fouls committed per game - only four sides in the competition have committed more fouls than Chelsea this term.

Pafos have drawn 10+ fouls in three of their six Champions League matches so far this term, and will be aware of the pressure that is on Chelsea in this clash, so they should look to break up the game as often as possible. Chelsea committed 19 fouls in their 2-2 draw with Qarabag earlier in the campaign, showing that Chelsea can still pose high foul numbers against sides that they are favourites against.

Pepe Rodrigues sits in the heart of Pafos’ midfield and has started all six of their matches in the Champions League this season. He should be a busy man in this clash with the 28-year-old expected to line up against a midfield trio of Fernandez, Caicedo, and Reece James.

Pepe has been incredibly strong when it comes to winning fouls in the Champions League this season, drawing 11 across his six appearances in the competition (1.91 per 90). His main opponent here is likely to be Moises Caicedo, who is very combative without the ball and is averaging 1.65 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League this season.

Pepe will also have to contest duels against Enzo Fernandez, who has been pushed slightly ahead of a midfield pivot in the early weeks of Rosenior’s tenure. Fernandez has committed six fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term (1.29 per 90) and has picked up one card in the competition.

Enzo Fernandez has seen his role change at Chelsea multiple times since he joined the club, with each manager seeing him as a slightly different player. 

Fernandez doesn’t quite have the physicality to be the complete Premier League midfielder; he doesn’t have the stamina of a player like Caicedo, nor the intelligence of a player who can dictate the play from deep.

This left Fernandez in a bit of an awkward spot, though Maresca realised his traits were suited to being a box crasher - and that’s how I think we’ll see Rosenior use Fernandez. 

Fernandez’s goal numbers really improved under Maresca, with the Argentinian netting nine goals already this term - more than he’s managed in each of his last two seasons at Chelsea. He definitely finds playing in Europe a bit easier due to the slightly slower tempo of matches, and registered eight goal contributions as Chelsea won the Conference League last season.

Fernandez has already registered three goal contributions in the three matches that Liam Rosenior has had at the club, showing that the new coach plans to use him in the same way as Maresca did.

Reece James is Chelsea’s most important player, regardless of whether he lines up as a right back or central midfielder. It looks like Rosenior is willing to play James in either role, but even if he does start at right back here, I can still see James take up central positions, which can aid our selection.

James has scored three goals so far this season, which is his best scoring record since the 21/22 campaign, where he netted six goals. Both of these goals have been in the Premier League, but James has been taking aim in the Champions League as well, with six shots across his four starts in the competition (1.59 per 90).

Two of these attempts have found the target (0.53 per 90), with James posting similar numbers in the Premier League this season. Pafos are likely to sit quite deep here, so it may take a long-range effort from James to unlock the travelling sides’ backline. James is also on free kicks for Chelsea, which can offer him an extra path to the target. 

Sunjic is one of the more aggressive players in this Pafos side, and is set for a difficult evening here up against a midfield trio of Caicedo, Fernandez, and Reece James. Sunjic has committed nine fouls across his six appearances in the Champions League this term (1.50 per 90), with this record earning Sunjic two yellow cards in the competition.

Sunjic has experience with English football, having played for Birmingham during the 23/24 season. He committed 57 fouls across his 31 starts during that season (1.95 per 90) and earned 11 yellow cards across those matches - suggesting that he is a player worth watching for a caution in this contest.

Sunjic will have a variety of opponents here, but I think he’s at the most risk of picking up a card when he faces up against Joao Pedro, who loves to drop deep to collect the ball. Joao Pedro has won seven fouls across just three starts in the Champions League this season (2.25 per 90).