Below we have a breakdown of common trends that have occurred over the past few Cheltenham Festivals. We’ve also weaved these into our Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips.

1️⃣ Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (13:20, Thursday 13th March)

This race has been dominated by younger mares, with all seven winners aged either five or six. The betting market is a strong guide, as five of the seven winners were favourites. Recent form is important, with five of the last seven winners arriving off the back of a victory.

Distance experience is also key, as every winner had at least one prior run over 15-17 furlongs, and six had already won twice over hurdles. Stick to well-backed mares with strong form on this trip.

📋 Summary:

SIXANDAHALF and GALILEO DAME, the current first and second favourites for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, align well with key trends for this race. Both mares are aged six, fitting the trend that all nine previous winners were aged five or six. Additionally, both have multiple wins over similar distances, aligning with the trend that successful contenders often have prior victories over 2m1f.

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2️⃣ Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (14:00, Thursday 13th March)

Seven and eight-year-olds have dominated this race, producing 10 of the last 12 winners. The market often struggles to pinpoint the winner, with only two favourites landing the prize in that time. Recent race fitness is useful, as eight of the last 12 winners ran within 45 days. Chase experience matters too, with nearly every past winner having at least three chase starts. Horses carrying between 10st 6lbs and 11st 6lbs have fared best.

📋 Summary:

NURBURGRING and FIREFOX, the current first and second favourites for the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase, align well with key trends for this race. Both horses are aged six, fitting the pattern that recent winners have often been six or seven years old. Additionally, both have prior Cheltenham experience, aligning with the trend that previous course form is beneficial in this race.

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3️⃣ Pertemps Network Final (14:40, Thursday 13th March)

A race that suits tough, battle-hardened hurdlers. 10 of the last 12 winners were aged six to eight, and only one favourite has won in that period, with big-priced horses often thriving. Nine of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 6lbs and 11st 8lbs, making weight an important factor. 11 of the last 12 winners had already raced over 19-21 furlongs, and five of the last 12 winners won their last start. Proven stayers with solid recent runs tend to do well.

📋 Summary:

JERIKO DU REPONET and WILL THE WISE align well with key trends for this race. Both horses are aged six, fitting the pattern that 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between six and eight. Additionally, both have won over similar distances, in line with the trend that 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one run over 19-21 furlongs. Their strong recent form also fits, as five of the last 12 winners won their previous race.

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4️⃣ Ryanair Chase Chase (15:20, Thursday 13th March)

This race suits second-season chasers, with nine of the last 13 winners aged seven or eight. The market is a reliable guide, with 16 of the last 20 winners returning at odds of 13/2 or shorter. Cheltenham experience is a major positive – 16 of the last 20 winners had already won at the course, while all 17 winners since the race became a Grade 1 had previously won over 2m4f. Most winners had already landed a Grade 1 chase before Cheltenham. 

📋 Summary:

FACT TO FILE and PROTEKTORAT align well with key trends for this race. Both horses are aged eight, fitting the pattern that nine of the last 13 winners were aged seven or eight. Additionally, both have previous Cheltenham victories, aligning with the trend that 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won at the course.

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5️⃣ Stayers’ Hurdle (16:00, Thursday 13th March)

Stamina and class define this race, with 31 of the last 35 winners aged between six and eight. The betting is a decent indicator, as 14 of the last 20 winners started at 10/1 or shorter. Recent form is important, with 20 of the last 25 winners finishing first or second in all their hurdling starts that season. Course experience is valuable, as 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won at Cheltenham. Proven three-mile hurdlers with strong Festival form have a great record.

📋 Summary:

TEAHUPOO and THE WALLPARK look good here. Teahupoo is aged six, and The Wallpark is seven, fitting the trend that 31 of the last 35 winners were aged between six and eight. Both horses have demonstrated strong form this season, aligning with the trend that 20 of the last 25 winners finished first or second in all their hurdle starts that season.

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6️⃣ Festival Plate (16:40, Thursday 13th March)

This is one of the most competitive handicaps at the Festival. Horses aged seven to nine have dominated, with 10 of the last 12 winners coming from this group. Only two of the last 12 favourites have won, making it a race where bigger-priced contenders often thrive. Weight is important, as eight of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 10lbs and 11st 8lbs. Cheltenham experience is useful – 10 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the track.

📋 Summary:

JAGWAR and JORDANS fit the bill for race six on Thursday. Both horses are aged six, slightly younger than the typical profile, as nine of the last 12 winners were aged between seven and ten. However, their recent performances are promising. Jagwar notably won the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase on his last outing, a race that has produced five subsequent winners from 19 runners, indicating strong form. Both horses have also run within the last 77 days, fitting the trend that 11 of the last 12 winners had their last run within this timeframe.

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7️⃣ Kim Muir Challenge Cup (17:20, Thursday 13th March)

Younger, progressive chasers tend to win this race, with all of the last 13 winners aged nine or younger. Big-priced horses often feature, as 12 of the last 24 winners came from outside the top five in the betting. Recent race fitness is key – 19 of the last 21 winners had already run that calendar year, and 14 of the last 20 had their last run from January 25th onwards. Stamina is essential, but horses with fewer than 16 chase starts tend to do best.

📋 Summary:

JOHNNYWHO and WALKING ON AIR match several key race trends. Both are aged seven, fitting the trend that all of the last 13 winners were aged nine or younger. Both horses have raced this calendar year, aligning with the trend that 19 of the last 21 winners had a run that year. With strong staying form and relatively few chase starts, they also fit the profile of progressive, lightly raced chasers, a common trait among recent winners.

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We will be covering the Cheltenham Festival with daily Cheltenham Festival Tips & Best Bets, while if you want to get in early, our Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips have you covered – we’ve got a NAP and a NB in store covering the 4 feature races of the week.

During the Cheltenham Festival our Expert Pick and Data Pick will be available for every race each day. That’s our Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips and Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup Tips.

It’s not just your average Cheltenham Tips here on ABC, we’ll also be posting Daily Cheltenham Festival E/W Tips and a Daily Lucky 15 Tips for Cheltenham Festival Day 2 too. Andy Robson will also be having a punt on a Nap of the Day for Cheltenham, which can also be viewed on Andy’s Tips.

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