Below we have a breakdown of common trends that have occurred over the past few Cheltenham Festivals. We’ve also weaved these into our Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Tips.

Cheltenham is a great time to take advantage of the Cheltenham Festival Free Bets and plenty of other promotions. These our Daily Cheltenham Betting Offers Strategy for Existing Customers.

1️⃣ Turners Novices Hurdle (13:20, Wednesday 12th March)

Stick to in-form, classy novices. 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 and rated 146+. The market is usually a strong guide, with 10 of the last 12 coming from the top three in the betting, and six going off as favourites. Recent form is key, 10 of the last 12 won their last race, all had placed, and most ran within the last 66 days.

Every winner had at least one seasonal win, and 11 had two or more. Back a proven, in-form novice near the top of the market for the best chance of success. 

📋 Summary:

THE NEW LION and FINAL DEMAND, the current first and second favourites for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, align well with key trends for this race. Both horses are aged six, fitting the trend that 11 of the last 12 winners were aged five or six. 


Additionally, both horses have multiple wins over similar distances, aligning with the trend that 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one win over 19-21 furlongs.

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2️⃣ Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (14:00, Wednesday 12th March)

Winners of this race tend to be experienced, high-class chasers. Nine of the last 12 were aged seven, and most had strong hurdle and chase form – 10/12 had at least three chase runs, and 11 had won at least once over fences.

Recent form is crucial, with 8/12 winning their last race, 10/12 at least placing, and all running within the last 77 days. The betting is usually a good guide, as 9 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the market, with six favourites landing the prize.

Cheltenham experience is a big plus, 11/12 had run at the track before, and seven had already won there. Distance form is another key trend, with 10/12 having both ran and won over 23-25 furlongs.

📋 Summary:

BALLYBURN and DANCING CITY, currently the favourite and second favourite for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, align well with key race trends. Both are aged seven, fitting the trend that nine of the last 10 winners were aged seven or eight.

Additionally, both have multiple chase runs and wins, aligning with the trend that most winners had at least six to twelve hurdle and chase runs

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3️⃣ Coral Cup (14:40, Wednesday 12th March)

The Coral Cup is a race for well-seasoned hurdlers, with 10 of the last 12 winners aged between six and eight. Big-priced horses often thrive here, only one favourite has won in the past 12 years, and 8/12 winners were priced at 12/1 or bigger.

Course experience is a strong trend, 10/12 had run at Cheltenham before, while half had already won there. Distance form is key, with 11/12 having run over 19-21 furlongs and 9/12 winning at that trip. A strong hurdle record is a must, as every winner had at least two previous hurdle wins, and 10/12 were rated 140+.

📋 Summary:

BE AWARE, at six, fits the preferred age range, with most winners aged six to eight. While his last run details are unclear, 10 of the last 12 winners ran within 77 days. Cheltenham experience is often key, and Be Aware’s profile suggests he could be well suited.

BUNTING, at five, is slightly younger than ideal but has shown solid recent form, including a second at Clonmel and previous Cheltenham experience. While only five past winners won their last race, strong course and distance form have often been important. Both horses fit enough trends to make them serious contenders.

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4️⃣ Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (15:20, Wednesday 12th March)

Experience is everything with 10 of the last 11 winners aged eight or older. The market is usually a solid guide, 9/11 winners came from the top three in the betting, with four going off as favourites or joint-favourites. Recent form is less of a factor, as only three winners won their last race, though 8/11 had run within the last 46 days.

Cheltenham form is crucial, 10/11 winners had run at the track before, and 9/11 had already won there. Stamina matters too, with 9/11 having raced over 30 furlongs and more than half winning at that trip. A strong chase record is key, as most winners had at least 13 chase runs and three chase wins. 

📋 Summary:

STUMPTOWN, at eight years old, fits the preferred age bracket, as 10 of the last 11 winners were aged eight or older. His recent victory in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting demonstrates his aptitude for the unique demands of the course. Additionally, his multiple cross-country wins align with the trend that successful horses often have prior experience in similar events. ​

GALVIN, also eight, matches the age trend and boasts a commendable record at Cheltenham, including a second-place finish in this race in 2023. His extensive chase experience and proven stamina over long distances further enhance his credentials.

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5️⃣ Queen Mother Champion Chase (16:00, Wednesday 12th March)

This race is all about class and consistency. 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between seven and nine, and the market is a strong guide, 11/12 came from the top three in the betting, with five favourites obliging.

Recent form matters, as six winners won their last race, and 9/12 had run within the last 53 days. The Clarence House Chase is a key trial, with 7/12 winners contesting it before Cheltenham, and four of those winning.

Course and distance experience is vital, 11/12 had multiple Cheltenham runs, and every winner had at least eight runs over 15-17 furlongs, with 10 winning six or more times on that trip.

📋 Summary:

JONBON, at eight, matches the ideal age range and comes into the race in top form, having won his last start. Seven of the last 12 winners prepped in the Clarence House Chase, a path Jonbon followed, but his 0-2 record at the Festival is a slight concern.

MARINE NATIONALE, also eight, fits the age trend and already has a Cheltenham Festival win in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. While he didn’t run in the Clarence House Chase, his course experience and class make him a serious contender. Both horses have strong claims based on past race trends.

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6️⃣ Grand Annual Chase (16:40, Wednesday 12th March)

This is a race where bigger-priced horses often do well, 9 of the last 12 winners went off at 10/1 or bigger, and only two favourites have won in that time. Most winners (9/12) were aged between seven and nine, and a competitive weight range of 10st 11lbs to 11st 6lbs has been ideal. Recent winning form isn’t crucial—only one of the last 12 winners won their previous race.

Cheltenham experience helps, with 9/12 winners having at least one run at the track, though only four had won there before. Distance form is key, 10/12 had at least 10 runs over 15-17 furlongs, and most had multiple wins at the trip. Every winner had at least one chase win, and a strong rating (138+) has been a common trend. Look for experienced two-mile chasers with solid handicap form rather than short-priced favourites.

📋 Summary:

UNEXPECTED PARTY and MY MATE MOZZIE, the top two in the Grand Annual Chase betting, both fit key trends. Unexpected Party, at eight, matches the ideal age range and has strong Cheltenham form, finishing second at the track in January. His 11st 2lbs weight is within the range of most past winners.

My Mate Mozzie, also eight, fits the age trend and has course experience, another key factor. His win at Navan in December shows good form, and his 11st 4lbs weight aligns with past winners.

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7️⃣ Champion Bumper (17:20, Wednesday 12th March)

This race is all about unbeaten, in-form novices. Every winner in the last 12 years was aged five or six, and all won their last race before Cheltenham. The market is a decent guide, with 8/12 winners coming from the top three in the betting, but only three favourites have delivered.

Experience at Cheltenham isn’t essential, but distance form is, 11/12 had run over 15-17 furlongs, and most had multiple wins at the trip. A rating of 120+ has been a strong indicator, and every past winner had at least one run and one win that season. Stick to unexposed, progressive types with solid bumper form.

📋 Summary:

COPACABANA and GAMEOFINCHES, leading contenders for the Champion Bumper, align closely with key race trends. Both are aged five, fitting the pattern that all winners in the last 12 years were either five or six. They each won their previous race, consistent with the trend that 12 of the last 12 winners triumphed in their prior outing.

Their recent victories also came within the past 45 days, matching the timing of 8 of the last 12 winners. However, neither has prior Cheltenham experience, a trait shared by only 2 of the last 12 winners. Notably, both horses are trained by Willie Mullins, who has secured 13 wins in this event, underscoring their strong prospects

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We will be covering the Cheltenham Festival with daily Cheltenham Festival Tips & Best Bets, while if you want to get in early, our Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips have you covered – we’ve got a NAP and a NB in store covering the 4 feature races of the week.

During the Cheltenham Festival our Expert Pick and Data Pick will be available for every race each day. That’s our Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips and Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup Tips.

It’s not just your average Cheltenham Tips here on ABC, we’ll also be posting Daily Cheltenham Festival E/W Tips and a Daily Lucky 15 Tips for Cheltenham Festival Day 2 too. Andy Robson will also be having a punt on a Nap of the Day for Cheltenham, which can also be viewed on Andy’s Tips.

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