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Below we have a breakdown of common trends that have occurred over the past few Cheltenham Festivals.
We’ll break down winners from each race, as well as analysing who stands out in terms of value for this year’s festival.
Cheltenham is a great time to take advantage of the Cheltenham Festival Free Bets and plenty of other promotions. These include Sky Bet Money Back as Cash on First Race and our Daily Cheltenham Betting Offers Strategy for Existing Customers.
1️⃣ Supreme Novices Hurdle (13:20, Tuesday 11th March)
Six of the last nine winners were six years old, and in the last 12 years, 11 winners were aged five or six.
Price is important here, with the last seven winners all being among the top three favourites. Winning form coming into the Festival also plays a role, with 10 of the last 12 winners having won their last race before Cheltenham.
A high rating is also a key trend, as 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 147 or higher.
📋 Summary:
KOPEK DES BORDES seems to fit the majority of these. Aged five and an odds-on favourite, he’s currently rated at 157 and won last time out.
ROMEO COOLIO is the second favourite here. He’s a year older than Kopek Des Bordes, also won his last race and has a rating of 148.
2️⃣ Arkle Novices Chase (14:00, Tuesday 11th March)
The ideal age for an Arkle winner is six or seven, with 11 of the last 12 winners falling into that category.
The last four winners were all favourites, and in the last 10 years, eight of the winners started as the market leader. Strong form coming into the race is another positive, as 11 of the last 12 winners had won their most recent outing.
It’s worth highlighting that only two five-year-olds have won the Arkle since 2002, while the oldest winner in the past decade was Edwardstone at eight years old in 2022.
📋 Summary:
MARJBOROUGH is the odds-on favourite, priced around 1.61. It won last time out too, the only concerning factor is his age, being a five year old.
L’EAU DE SUD is the second favourite and ticks all the boxes. Seven years old, one of the shorter prices, won their last race, and rated at 156.
3️⃣ Festival Trophy / Ultimate Handicap Chase (14:40, Tuesday 11th March)
The typical winner of this race falls between the ages of seven and nine, with 10 of the last 12 winners fitting this profile.
The betting trends suggest that being among the top three in the market is a positive, as seven of the last 12 winners were in that bracket. However, only two favourites have won in that timeframe.
Unlike some of the other Festival races, recent winning form is not essential, with just three of the last 12 winners having won their previous race.
A strong rating is still a key factor, as 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 140 or higher.
Cheltenham experience has proven to be invaluable, as all of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at the track, eight had run there at least twice, and seven had already won at Cheltenham before.
📋 Summary:
You’d be looking for a horse that’s already run at Cheltenham, with a win at the ground even more favourable. Based on trends, horses rated 140 and above and in the shorter prices tend to be the safest bet.
THE CHANGING MAN and HENRY’S FRIEND both fit this trend. Both aged eight, priced inside the shortest seven runners, and both rated higher than 140.
4️⃣ Mares’ Hurdle (15:20, Tuesday 11th March)
The most successful age range for winners of the Mares’ Hurdle is between five and seven, with nine of the last 12 winners falling into this bracket.
Market leaders have a reasonable record, with five of the last 12 winners being favourites, and 10 of those 12 winners were in the top three favourites.
Recent winning form is a good indicator of success, as nine of the last 12 winners won their previous race before Cheltenham.
A strong rating is also important, with nine of the last 12 winners rated 148 or higher. Course experience is a significant advantage, as eight of the last 12 winners had already run at Cheltenham prior to their success.
📋 Summary:
LOSSIEMOUTH is the front runner at 2.1, with JADE DE GRUGY priced second favourite at 3.5. Lossiemouth’s rating of 160 looks favourable, but Jade De Grugy won last time out – something that Lossiemouth didn’t.
5️⃣ Champion Hurdle (16:00, Tuesday 11th March)
A proven profile of Champion Hurdle winners suggests that they are usually aged between six and eight, with 10 of the last 12 winners fitting this age range.
Favourites have a strong record, with nine of the last 12 winners being the market leader, while 10 of the last 12 winners were among the top three in the betting.
Recent winning form is a huge factor, with 11 of the last 12 winners arriving at Cheltenham having won their last race.
The best horses tend to win this race, with 10 of the last 12 winners boasting a rating of 161 or higher.
The favourite has won each of the last five editions, and six of the last seven, with their starting prices reading: 1.40, 1.36, 1.73, 2.10, 3.0 and 1.66.
📋 Summary:
It’s difficult to look past CONSTITUTION HILL here. Aged eight, priced heavily odds-on at 1.66, rated 175 and winning the last time out.
6️⃣ Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (16:40, Tuesday 11th March)
This race is exclusively for four-year-olds. The betting trends suggest that upsets are common, as only one of the last 12 winners was the favourite, while seven winners in that period were priced at 18/1 or bigger.
Recent winning form is not as crucial here as in some of the other Festival races, with only four of the last 12 winners having won their previous outing.
The key rating band appears to be between 122 and 134, with nine of the last 12 winners falling within that range.
Weight is also a factor, with nine of the last 12 winners carrying between 10st-6lb and 11st-5lb.
📋 Summary:
Bit of a lucky dip. There’s usually 20+ runners in this one, so following the patterns listed above could provide a decent each-way angle.
7️⃣ National Hunt Chase (17:20, Tuesday 11th March)
The ideal age range for winners of this race is between six and eight, with nine of the last 12 winners fitting that profile. Interestingly, the last four winners have all been aged seven.
Market trends indicate that being in the top three in the betting is a positive, with seven of the last 12 winners fitting this description, although only two outright favourites have won in that timeframe.
Unlike some of the Festival’s top races, recent winning form is not a key factor here, as only four of the last 12 winners were victorious in their last outing.
A strong rating is important, however, as 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 142 or higher, and the last four winners were all rated at least 150.
📋 Summary:
Look for ratings of 150 and above, preferably in the top few favourites, aged between six and eight. The favourite has finished first or second in each of the last four years.
We will be covering the Cheltenham Festival with daily Cheltenham Festival Tips & Best Bets, while if you want to get in early, our Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips have you covered – we’ve got a NAP and a NB in store covering the 4 feature races of the week.
During the Cheltenham Festival our Expert Pick and Data Pick will be available for every race each day. That’s our Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips, Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips and Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup Tips.
Those looking for longer odds, we’ve got you covered with our Expert and Data Picks covering Cheltenham Day 1 Longshot Picks, Cheltenham Day 2 Longshot Picks, Cheltenham Day 3 Longshot Picks, Cheltenham Day 4 Longshot Picks and Gold Cup Longshot Picks.
It’s not just your average Cheltenham Tips here on ABC, we’ll also be posting Daily Cheltenham Festival E/W Tips and a Daily Lucky 15 Tips for Cheltenham Festival too. Andy Robson will also be having a punt on a Nap of the Day for Cheltenham, which can also be viewed on Andy’s Tips.
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