The line for this game started with the Browns as 4.5-point underdogs, before news of the DK Metcalf suspension shortened that to just 3-point dogs. I like the Browns a lot in this spot. I’m not convinced by the Steelers, in general, and think they’ve been fortunate that the Ravens have been so bad and Joe Burrow was injured for the majority of the season, or they’d not be leading the division.

The Steelers are 3-4 against the spread when they’re away from Pittsburgh that dropping to 1-2 ATS in games in which they’re the favourite on the road. This Browns defence is seriously good, ranking 4th in DVOA and will be the difference maker here. That said, I want to play this very conservatively, so I’m taking the Browns +7.5 points.

This game has the lowest points total on Sunday’s slate with 34.5. I’m always interested in attacking low totals, and this one looks ripe for me to do that, especially if I take an ultra-conservative alternate line of 27.5.

The Over is 5-2 when the Steelers play on the road, and they’ve averaged 24.3 points scored per game. I’d downgrade that number for this game, given the Metcalf suspension and the quality of the Browns defence, but they still hit double digits easily. The Browns have seen their scoring marginally increase under Shedeur Sanders, but the offence just looks better, and he can ensure they do enough on offence to give us the points to cover.

How big will the Metcalf absence be? He has over double the receiving yards of any other wideout, but despite that, I think this passing yard total is very low. He will find somebody else on this team to force feed the ball, whether that’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Adam Thielen or his tight ends.

Across the whole season, we’ve seen Rodgers average 204.2 yards per game, and he’s broken this number in eight of 14 games this season, including the previous three matches, as well as the game against the Browns in Week Six.

I don’t think Sanders is the man for this team in the long run, but he’s not dreadfu,l and he has some qualities that make me think he could be an NFL quarterback with the right coach and scheme. He’s had just the five starts at BrownS and averaged 211.2 passing yards per game.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa put up 250+ yards on this defence, and while Sanders might not put up his that much, he should still break 178 yards. He isn’t the most accurate, and he takes risk,s but he has the ability to pull something off.