Whilst Benfica sit five points clear of Porto in first place and are chasing their first league title in four years, Club Brugge are in danger of missing out on the title for the first time in four years with the side 20 points adrift of league leaders Genk, 14 behind Union Saint-Gilloise, and eight behind Royal Antwerp. It should be noted that Belgian football has a postseason playoff following the regular season, with the top four teams entering the round-robin championship playoff, but Club Brugge could have a tough time securing their spot with the team just three points above Gent and four above Standard Liège. After exiting Belgian Cup at the Round of 16 in a 4-1 defeat to STVV, Club Brugge ended 2022 with a 1-1 draw to Oud-Heverlee Leuven before opening the new year with a 3-1 loss to Genk, 1-1 draws to Anderlecht and STVV and a 2-2 draw to Charleroi, a 2-1 win against Zulte Waregem, a 0-0 draw to Antwerp and a 1-1 draw to USG.

It has been quite the managerial merry-go-round at Jan Breydel Stadium, with Philippe Clement leaving for Monaco at the start of 2022 and Alfred Schreuder taking the reins, only to depart for Ajax in the summer. Rookie manager Carl Hoefkens took charge and oversaw an inspired campaign in Europe, beating Bayer Leverkusen 1-0, thrashing Porto 4-0 at the Dragão, beating Atlético Madrid 2-0 and drawing 0-0 in the Spanish capital. Whilst a 4-0 home defeat to Porto and a 0-0 draw to Bayer Leverkusen would see them miss out on first place, Club Brugge were going to the knockout round for the first time since 1990/91, back when it was the European Cup, having participated in the competition on 16 occasions since then. Ultimately, it wasn’t enough for Hoefkens to keep hold of his job – a Boxing Day draw to Leuven that saw them concede 94th-minute equalizer would result in his dismissal, with Englishman Scott Parker taking charge but mustering just one victory thus far.

Benfica enter this match on six days of rest after exiting the Taça de Portugal at the quarterfinals stage to Braga on penalties following a 1-1 draw, and they will arrive in Brugge as not only the overwhelming favorites, but one of the best teams in Europe. They have lost just once all season – a 3-0 defeat to Braga on December 30 – and apart from a 2-2 draw to Sporting and their cup elimination to Braga, they have won all six of their matches this year, scoring 14 goals and conceding 0. I’m backing them to make easy work of a Club Brugge side that has yet to find its rhythm under Scott Parker.

The past three games have seen Benfica cope with the absences of three key players – Rafa Silva, Enzo Fernández and Gonçalo Ramos.

With Ramos and Rafa both back from injury, I’m expecting Roger Schmidt to drop Chiquinho from the team and move Fredrik Aursnes into a deeper role alongside Florentino Luís in the double pivot, with Ramos spearheading the attack alongside Gonçalo Guedes, Rafa Silva and João Mário.

At 30 years of age, João Mário has been reinvented in a wide playmaker role this season and is in sensational form, doubling Benfica’s lead after 11 minutes in a 2-0 win vs. Paços de Ferreira, before closing out January with a brace against Arouca and grabbing a brace and an assist against Casa Pia. No player has more goals (12) or goal contributions (16) in Portugal’s top-flight than João Mário – with 16 goals in all competitions, he has scored more this season than in the past six seasons combined. I’m backing him to get another goal contribution as he takes on a Club Brugge side that has conceded 30 goals in 25 league matches.

Whilst Benfica have the best attack in Portugal with 51 goals in 20 matches, Club Brugge have struggled to convince on the defensive front. Since drawing 0-0 to Bayer Leverkusen in the final Champions League group stage match on November 1, they have kept just two clean sheets – a 0-0 draw to Antwerp on February 5 and a 2-0 win against amateur side Patro Eisden in the Belgian Cup. They have conceded two or more goals on 12 occasions this season, and they have collected just three clean sheets at home since the start of October – a 3-0 win against STVV (who fell to 10 men in the 63rd minute) on October 19, a 3-0 win against Mechelen on October 1 and a 2-0 win against Atlético Madrid on October 4.

Benfica, on the other hand, have been held scoreless just twice since the start of October – a 0-0 draw to Vitória and a 0-3 defeat to Braga on December 30 – and have scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches. I’m backing this one to be a fairly high-scoring affair, and I’m expecting Benfica to come away with the majority of goals in Belgium.

Benfica have never played Club Brugge before in official competition, but they have faced off against a 21-year-old Nigerian midfielder by the name of Raphael Onyedika. Onyedika started for FC Midtyjlland in their 3-1 defeat to Benfica in August, receiving a booking in the 69th minute, before moving to Club Brugge in the final days of the window.

Since then, Onyedika has slotted in as a physically imposing, quick and aggressive presence in the center of the pitch, but he has also picked up his fair share of bookings. September would see him receive bookings in a 4-0 win against Porto and a 3-0 loss to Standard Liège – he has since been cautioned against Atlético Madrid, Anderlecht, Porto, Gent, Patro Eisden Maasmechelen, Antwerp, Sint-Truiden, Leuven and Antwerp. Onyedika will have his hands full dealing with a Benfica side teeming with creative technicians – a team that will likely have the bulk of possession – and it could see him resort to persistent fouling in order to keep his side in the game. I’m expecting Onyedika to pick up a booking against Benfica while definitely committing multiple fouls.