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Como v Genoa Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Como v Genoa Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Serie A
Starting: Mon 15th Sep, 19:45
Friday 12 September, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

In this article...

There’s a nice subplot here, with Fabregas’ Como going up against Vieira’s Genoa - two Arsenal icons now calling the shots from opposing dugouts. Cesc has adapted to life on the touchline a little quicker, and I’m backing him to come out on top against his old captain.

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Como v Genoa Quick Preview Tips
  • Como v Genoa
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
2 Selections @ 2.42

Como to Win

Following significant targeted expenditure over the summer, Como became a popular dark horse ahead of this season, and their first two games indicate that this is an easily justified position.

They were superb in their home win over Lazio, limiting the visitors to just five shots in total, while running out 2-0 winners. The follow-up at Bologna ended in a narrow 1-0 defeat, but even there, they looked well-drilled and tough to break down. Back at home, it’s hard to picture Genoa causing them too many problems.

As for Genoa, the signs are worrying. They’re yet to find the back of the net, with their only point coming in a goalless draw with Lecce. No side in Serie A has created fewer xG, and on current evidence, this trip to Lombardy could feel like a very long evening.

Leo Ostigard to Commit 2+ Fouls

Backing Ostigard to commit two or more fouls also looks like a neat angle, given his track record and likely matchup.

The defender clocked three fouls and a booking in his only outing this season, which is pretty much in line with his track record. He averaged 1.8 per 90 during his time in the Bundesliga last season, and it’s become a regular feature of his game.

He’s set to face a tricky assignment against Douvikas and Morata, with one likely to make way for the other around the hour mark. Both know how to draw contact: Douvikas averaged 3.51 fouls won per 90 at Celta Vigo last season, and 2.65 after moving to Serie A. 

Morata’s figures over the last few seasons have consistently hovered around the 1.5 mark. Remarkably, the Spaniard has already drawn six fouls in just 53 minutes of football since joining Como.

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  • Como have looked solid across their opening two games, conceding only three shots on target and less than 0.7xG from open play.

  • Genoa remain one of three sides yet to score in Serie A, with their chance creation among the lowest in the league.

  • Last season’s clashes between these sides produced a 1-1 draw alongside a 1-0 Como win.


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🔵 Fabregas And Como Lay Solid Foundations

I think it’s fair to say that Como’s home win over Lazio caught the eye of many, not only by virtue of the scoreline, but so too the nature of the result.

Como conceded just five shots and 0.25xG en route to their dominant 2-0 victory against the Italian giants. Cesc Fabregas’ outfit were able to control 57% of possession, and used this as a platform to suffocate their opponents, with Nico Paz particularly excelling.

Although they weren’t able to follow up with a win against Bologna, Como looked every bit as solid, in fact, across both matches they’ve still only conceded a combined three shots on target, and 0.66xG from open play.


🔴 Toothless Genoa Yet to Fire

Genoa weren’t able to build on their opening day point against Lecce last time round against Juventus.

That said, it was always going to be a tough fixture, and Genoa did well to restrict Juventus to only 1.03xG. Vieira’s outfit came agonisingly close to doing one better, as Patrizio Masini’s header found the wrong side of the crossbar deep into stoppage-time, however, it wasn’t meant to be.

Genoa’s chance-creation will definitely be a concern of Vieira’s, with the Rossoblù one of three teams yet to score in Serie A, and their average of 0.53 xG per 90 suggesting that this is no coincidence.


📊 Como v Genoa H2H

Last season’s clashes between Genoa and Como marked the first Serie A meetings between the sides in years. On both occasions, it was Como who looked the stronger outfit.

They were denied maximum points in November only by Alessandro Vogliacco’s 92nd-minute equaliser, but the return fixture in April was more straightforward. The Lariani ran out 1-0 winners, keeping Genoa to just four shots all game.


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