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Atletico MG v Botafogo

This Saturday, all eyes will turn to the 2024 Copa Libertadores final as Atlético-MG and Botafogo face off in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to crown this year’s continental champion.

Atlético-MG, nicknamed "Galo," will aim for their second Libertadores title, having last won in 2013, while Botafogo, known as "Fogão," dream of lifting the trophy for the first time. The stage is set for a fiercely contested battle under warm weather, promising an unpredictable showdown.

⭐ Atletico MG v Botafogo Best Bets

🚩 Corners

This is a game that boasts strong strong attacking talent and is likely to produce plenty of corners alongside the expected shots. In the Brasileirão, Botafogo rank 3rd in corners earned, averaging 6.1 per game, while Atlético-MG averages 4.7.

The Libertadores semifinals also highlighted this trend, with Botafogo’s matches against Peñarol averaging 10 corners and Atlético’s clashes with River Plate averaging 12.5.

Both teams emphasize ball control and sustained attacking pressure. Atlético lead the Brasileirão in ball possession (57.7%) and rank 2nd in the Libertadores (64.4%), while Botafogo follow closely with 54.7% in the league and 53.1% in the tournament. No matter the scoreline, both coaches are expected to encourage aggressive, forward-focused play.

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🟨 Cards

Saturday’s final is set to be a fiery contest, with challenges likely to feature heavily throughout. Both teams rank among the most foul-prone sides in Brazilian and continental competitions.

In six Libertadores knockout-stage matches, Botafogo accumulated 22 yellow cards, averaging 3.66 per game. This aligns with their 4th-highest foul rate in the tournament (13.1 per game) and their league-leading 15.5 fouls per game in the Brasileirão, despite topping the table.

A high-stakes match will likely lead to physical play. In the quarterfinals against Fluminense, Atlético drew 20 fouls, and in the semifinals against River, they forced 31 fouls.

The referee, Argentine Facundo Tello, has officiated two all-Brazilian Libertadores matches this season (Palmeiras vs. Botafogo and Fluminense vs. Atlético-MG), issuing 11 yellow cards across the two games. His tournament average is 4.25 cards per match, including reds.

If Botafogo take a lead late in the game, they may resort to time-wasting tactics, potentially prompting the referee to issue warnings to keep the game flowing.

🔍 Atletico MG v Botafogo Player to Watch

⚫ Guilherme Arana

Atlético Mineiro’s left-back Guilherme Arana, who averages 1.2 fouls per game in this year’s Libertadores, faces a tough challenge in Saturday’s final: stopping the pacey and skillful Luiz Henrique.

Luiz Henrique is one of the most dynamic attackers in Brazilian football and frequently draws fouls due to his style of play. In the Brasileirão, he draws an average of 2.1 fouls per match. Over his last 11 starts, he has been fouled 30 times — an impressive 2.72 per game.

Arriving in high spirits after scoring twice for Brazil’s national team, along with goals in the Libertadores semifinal and a derby against Vasco, Luiz Henrique will pose a significant threat. Guilherme Arana, who has committed at least one foul in each of his last nine starts, will be tasked with containing him.

Arana has consistently exceeded the 1.5 fouls mark in Libertadores matches, including games against Peñarol (twice), Caracas, San Lorenzo, and River Plate. In the semifinal at the same stadium where the final will be held, he committed three fouls, showing how likely it is for him to repeat this trend on Saturday.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.