It feels a fairly ridiculous statement to make in December, but a Coventry win here would put them in such a commanding position that Sky Blues fans can almost start planning their trips to the Emirates and Old Trafford.

Ipswich are currently the team in 3rd place, a full 13 points behind their hosts at the start of play, they also need a win to start closing on the automatic promotion spots, which is what would have been their aim pre-season.

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📈 Coventry v Ipswich Form & Stats

Coventry scraped a fairly unconvincing and narrow 1-0 win at home to Swansea on Boxing Day, but this has been their usual for much of the season. A part of this is because of how good they are in both boxes, with a number of goal threats, and a solid backline and goalkeeper. It is only two wins in their last five, but eight points from those five, and that is a ratio that is solid enough to secure automatic promotion if it is sustained from here.

The Sky Blues are not scoring anywhere as many as they had been, only four in their last five matches. This is also matched in their expected goals performance, their season average in 2.13 xG per 90, but in the last five games, that has dropped to 1.44. This is only an expected goals differential of +0.22 xG in those five matches, which shows why there has been a reduction in form.

Ipswich continue to flatter to deceive. Every time I feel like they are ready to go on a run and begin an assault on the top two places, they seem to trip up again. Regardless, this patchy form has been enough to guide them up into 3rd place as everyone around them faltered as well. It is three wins in five, with 10 points coming from that period, and a continuation of that form would see them very, very close to the top two at the end of the season.

They have actually won the xG battle in all of those matches too, so there are a lot of positives to take from recent games, they could do with being more convincing in both boxes. They have created the highest number of big chances in the league, but they are also top of missed big chances. More good news is that Ipswich are now the tightest defence in the league with the fewest expected goals against them this season, 18.9 xGA after 23 matches.

📔 Coventry v Ipswich Formation & Team News

Frank Lampard has been tactically flexible throughout his time at Coventry. He has used three at the back systems, and a couple of varieties of a flat back four with 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 being prevalent. There is something of a rotating cast of forwards who seem to take it in turns to shine, it was Ephron Mason-Clark’s turn on Boxing Day, and whilst Jack Rudoni is still getting up to full speed and effectiveness, there is goals from midfield with Victor Torp there.

Oliver Dovin and top scorer Brandon Thomas-Asante are going to miss this one through injury. Luke Thomas was suffering with the flu last time out, so could be fit enough to face Coventry.

We have become familiar with Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich shape over the past couple of years, but there are some evolutions to notice with this crop of players. Marcelino Nunez has now assumed the mantle of #10, which he is playing differently than the likes of Conor Chaplin, in that he is a bit more creative, though his shot volume is still high. It is a 4-2-3-1 system, and there have been times where both Jaden Philogene-Bidace and Jack Clarke have played on opposite flanks, but Sindre Walle Egeli has began to find his feet now as well.

George Hirst will definitely be out for this, leaving Ivan Azon to continue his work as the spearhead of the attack, Conor Townsend is another absentee. Sammie Szmodics is close to a return, though, and could be involved here in some way.

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