We’re expecting goals here, 80% of Coventry’s home games this season have seen over 2.5 goals – this has also landed in four of Luton’s last five outings.

The home side have only kept one clean sheet so far this season, and have created over 1 xG in four out of their five home games so far. The visitors have only scored two goals away from home, but star striker Carlton Morris has only played in one away game this season, and adds proven scoring ability at this level.

Coventry have only kept one clean sheet this season, whilst Luton have kept three, meaning that both teams’ respective oppositions have scored against them at least 73% of the time.

Coventry have failed to score in just four games, whilst The Hatters have failed to score in three. Meanwhile, both sides are underperforming their xG, which means there’s room for improvement in front of goal. With Morris back for Luton, Adebayo getting off the mark and Haji Wright scoring last time out for the Sky Blues, we think both sides will find the net here.

Haji Wright is the only Coventry player to score more than once in the Championship this season. Of the seven games he has started, he has had a shot on target in five of them, and scored four goals in the process.

Of the 23 shots he has taken this season, 20 have been from inside the box. He consistently takes shots at goal from good positions which can only help when it comes to hitting the target.

The athletic striker may have struggled in front of goal so far this season, but he is prolific when it comes to being penalised by the referee’s whistle.

He has committed 2 or more fouls in eight out of 11 Championship games so far, and 3 or more in seven of those eight. In away games, his foul count reads: 3, 3, 3, 3, 0. His sheer size and long limbs can make him look ungainly when challenging aerially, making him an easy target for officials.

The bookmakers have Coventry as favourites for this one, and given their recent form and performances, we’re willing to go against them winning – the home side have only won one of their last eight games.

Their last three performances have been particularly concerning, against the sides 16th, 18th and 23rd in the table, failing to create over 1 xG against any of them. Luton, on the other hand, are looking like they’re edging back towards their best. They have created over 1 xG in four of their last five, and now have their first choice strike partnership fit and coming into form.

This selection is a reflection on referee Bobby Madley rather than the two teams involved. Former Premier League referee Madley has officiated eight Championship games so far this season, awarding just 2.88 cards per game. This bet would have landed in seven of the eight games he has overseen, with the game it wouldn’t have landed in having five cards.

Coventry have averaged 1.91 yellows per game, whilst Luton rate slightly higher on 2.27, so if both perform to their average in terms of cards awarded this one should land.

Bustling striker Carlton Morris scored 20 league goals during Luton’s promotion campaign, and followed that up with an impressive 11 in the Premier League last season.

During that 20 goal haul a couple of seasons ago, Morris scored at a rate of 0.53 per 90. He’s had a stuttering start this term fitness wise, having only managed to start six games, but he is still scoring at a rate to his last time in the Championship, with 0.54 per 90 this time around. Coventry have only kept one clean sheet and for me Morris is Luton’s most likely scorer, especially given he is the clubs penalty taker too.

Ever-present Alfie Doughty provides plenty of ammunition for his strikers from the left flank, creating 3.45 chances per 90, and has the highest xA per 90 in the whole division at 0.42.

The left wing back provides 5.36 successful crosses per 90, which is exactly the kind of service which forwards Morris and Adebayo thrive on.