Looking at Maidstone’s underlying numbers from their current National League South (NLS) campaign it is clear that they are very deserving of their current play-off position.

Indeed, their expected goals and expected goals against numbers are even better than their actual results. The Stones average almost 1.5 goals a game, with their xG a touch higher at 1.56. This is an impressively high rate of chance creation, and demonstrates that they can be capable of threatening the Coventry goal when in possession.

Maidstone do still concede over a goal a game in NLS, 1.29 goals per match to be exact. However, their defensive xG against data is only 1.06xG per match, so they have potentially been fairly unlucky on that side of the game so far in the league this season.

In reality though, the Stones have ridden their luck in the FA Cup to get to this point. Both Stevenage and Ipswich dominated their ties, but Maidstone were clinical in their finishing and spirited in defence.

Coventry have been exceptionally competent in the second tier, especially after recovering from a difficult start. There is no reason to suspect that, especially at home, Coventry won’t repeat a similar performance that Ipswich managed against Maidstone, dominating the match and creating far more than the NLS side. In the 4th round Ipswich won the xG battle by 3 clear xG, but Maidstone scored with their only two shots.

The balance of probability says that in a similar scenario, this is unlikely to happen again. Coventry must be favoured to progress despite this being distinctively un-romantic. However, Maidstone’s attacking quality shouldn’t be dismissed and they could get themselves on the scoresheet.

The trick of this match is to try to decipher how many shots Coventry are likely to have.

Ipswich struck 38 shots in the previous round, 13 of which were on target. Stevenage had only 9 in the third round, but the difference was that they were away from home, and also Stevenage are nowhere near the attacking force of two of the top Championship sides.

So, assuming that Coventry will dominate and pepper the goal, how might that look on the pitch? Coventry’s centre forward should get some chances from balls into the box, Nathan Broadhead playing centrally had six shots for Ipswich. Matt Godden is potentially a good option in this area, Ellis Simms is a threat aerially and on the ground, so it depends on who starts, but either player to take at least four shots seems likely.

The area of greatest interest though could be Coventry’s central midfield. Against Ipswich, Maidstone sat deep and that invited Jack Taylor especially to fire from range, Taylor took seven shots in the match. Sam Morsy took three.

If Victor Torp is given a start then he looks like a really interesting option in this market. Whilst the Dane hasn’t totally cemented his position in the first XI yet, he has taken 8 shots from 3.8 90’s. He is an option from set pieces, and from range. He could be the one to take those shots from just outside of the area.

As mentioned above, Maidstone had only two shots in the whole match against Ipswich, so it is difficult to predict with much confidence where to look for value in their team.

Again, the research into the recent ties between sides four tiers apart shows that there haven’t been many cards given out in the matches.

Everton vs Boreham Wood saw one card given to each side, Chelsea vs Chesterfield was the same. Ipswich vs Maidstone in the previous round saw one card only to George Edmundson.

This suggests that the unders in the card market may appeal more than the overs.

Only Coventry players have been priced in the individual card market. Despite the expected low numbers of cards, Kasey Palmer looks a fairly good value selection. The attacking midfielder has five yellow cards in less than 17 90’s and is a regular fouler as well.

If we are to assume that Coventry will threaten with many shots and that the majority of the play will be in Maidstone’s half then it stands to reason that Coventry will be in for plenty of corners as well.

However, a note of caution should be sounded. Ipswich had 11 corners without reply in the previous round, but game state did dictate some of that with the Championship side being behind for much of the match.

In recent previous FA Cup ties with four tiers of difference between the sides and the bigger club playing at home we have seen Chelsea beat Chesterfield very comfortably, but win only 3 corners, conceding 1, and Everton defeat Boreham Wood 2-0 with a corner count of 6-0.

The best value play in the corners market is probably backing under 2.5 corners for Maidstone. None of the four tier lower sides in these ties has gotten to two corners in their matches, let alone three.

However, Coventry over 6.5 corners also appeals. The Sky Blues are the 3rd highest corner taking team in the Championship, so have a good chance of going over the line regardless of game state.