Jean-Philippe Mateta has been Crystal Palace’s most productive attacker this season, with 11 goal contributions – 4 more than any other Palace player. As a near ever-present in the lineup, he plays a vital role in their attack. Given Palace’s strong likelihood of finding the net at least once in this match, there’s a pretty high chance Mateta will be directly involved, either as a scorer or provider.

James Tarkowski has been a rock at the heart of Everton’s defence, playing every minute of the season. He averages 1.1 fouls per game and has already picked up 4 yellow cards. Palace’s attackers are adept at drawing fouls, with the team winning an average of 11.12 per match. Given Tarkowski’s physical style and Palace’s tendency to attract challenges, this bet looks well founded.

Crystal Palace are 1 of the more aggressive defensive teams in the league, averaging 10.85 fouls per game this season. Their high-intensity approach, especially in midfield and defence, forces players into duels which often results in high foul counts. This match is also likely to be a tight 1 with both teams having a lot of the ball increasing chances for fouls on either side. Given that Everton also average 10.33 fouls drawn per game, it’s fairly safe to assume that Palace should hit or surpass the 10-foul mark in this match.

Everton have averaged 3.46 shots on target per game, slightly above the required mark for this bet. Palace on the other side concede 4.04 shots on target per game, suggesting Everton should have opportunities to test the goalkeeper. With Everton’s more attack-minded approach in recent weeks as well as Palace’s tendency to allow a high volume of shots on target, 3 on-target efforts seem a realistic expectation.

Palace have drawn 9 games this season, a total matched by Everton. With just 1 point separating these sides in the table, this looks like a closely contested matchup adding to the chances of a stalemate. Neither team has shown a tendency to dominate games, and both have struggled in front of goal – Palace average 1.17 goals per game, while Everton manage just 1.04. Defensively, they are compact and well organised, each conceding 1.25 goals per game. This makes it seem unlikely for either team to run away with it, making a draw seem very possible.

Everton have been 1 of the more physical sides in the Premier League this season, averaging 11.54 fouls per game. Their new more aggressive defensive approach, which prioritises winning the ball high up the pitch, naturally leads to more fouls being committed. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, draw 11.12 fouls per game. With Palace’s attackers tricky and direct, Everton may have to foul in order to disrupt their rhythm. Given this 11 fouls seems like a strong possibility.

This selection offers great value, as Jean-Philippe Mateta draws 0.92 fouls per game on average. Everton, 1 of the most aggressive teams in the league, commit 11.54 fouls per game, among the highest in the Premier League. Crucially, a large portion of these fouls come from their defence and midfield, areas where Mateta is most involved. As 1 of Palace’s focal points in attack, he is constantly engaged in physical battles, making it highly likely he will be on the receiving end of at least 1 foul in this match.

With Dominic Calvert-Lewin sidelined, Beto has stepped up for Everton and delivered in their last few games. He has scored 3 goals in 3 matches, and during this run, he has averaged 1.33 shots on target per game, including 2 against Liverpool midweek, where he also found the net. Given his current form and Everton’s reliance on him as their main attacking threat, backing him to register at least 1 shot on target looks like a strong bet.