Gem Bet: Crystal Palace v Liverpool (Community Shield)

Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Hugo Ekitike - Over 2.5 Shots v Crystal Palace @ 1.91 (bet365)
- Crystal Palace v Liverpool
- English Community Shield
- 15:00

A £10 bet on this Gem Bet returns £19.10 if it wins.
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As the new season kicks off, there often lies early value in being able to project how new signings will perform well before the market catches up. And that’s exactly the case here in Sunday’s Community Shield, where Hugo Ekitike to have 3+ shots is a standout selection at 1.91 with bet365.
Given his output last season and the setup he’s stepping into at Liverpool, this price looks significantly inflated, especially with PaddyPower offering as low as 1.06, implying a 94.3% chance of it landing.
To break it down, last season’s numbers (for both club and country):
The Frenchman averaged 3.6 shots per 90
He hit 3+ shots in 15 of his last 19 starts
For Frankfurt alone:
He tallied 22 goals & 12 assists in all competitions
Averaged 3.8 shots per 90
Hit 3+ in 11 of his last 14 starts (managed 2 in the other three)
Landed on this mark in 30 of his 43 starts (69.8% strike rate)
However, the numbers become even more appealing after Marmoush’s departure, where Ekitike then became Frankfurt’s focal point up front:
He averaged 4.16 shots per 90
3+ shots in 17 of his final 22 starts (77.3%)
Now under Arne Slot, Liverpool is expected to continue their high-shot philosophy, averaging 16.48 shots per game across all competitions last season. With Ekitike likely deployed as the central striker, and supported by the creative power around him, he should have no shortage of opportunities, particularly in a curtain-raiser where he will be eager to impress on his competitive debut.
At 1.91 odds, this line appears significantly mispriced, offering a smart way to kickstart the new season by backing the Frenchman to make his mark in Red.
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