Despite both teams’ precarious positions, defensive frailty has been a recurring theme. Southampton, with the league’s second-worst defensive record, are involved in high-scoring matches more often than not. Palace, though marginally better defensively, have seen 9 of their last 11 games produce at least two goals, with 6 of Southampton’s last 9 hitting the same mark. The recent history between these teams also points towards goals, with 5 of their last 6 meetings yielding over 1.5 goals.

Southampton’s ill-discipline on the road has been a defining feature of their season, and their propensity for collecting cards makes this a standout angle. The Saints average a staggering 2.94 yellow cards per game, climbing to 3.33 in away fixtures, the highest in the league. Crystal Palace’s opponents at Selhurst Park have drawn at least 2 yellow cards in 6 of their last 8 matches, with Southampton receiving 3 or more in their last 3 meetings with Palace. Expect Southampton’s indiscipline to continue in a match where frustration could boil over.

On the other side, Palace’s Will Hughes will play a key role in breaking up Southampton’s midfield play. Known for his combative nature, Hughes thrives on disrupting the opposition and has committed at least 1 foul in 14 of his last 15 appearances (excluding a brief 2-minute cameo against Everton). Given his involvement in duels and the pressure Southampton’s midfielders could apply, Hughes is a strong candidate to commit at least 2 fouls, a mark he has hit in 6 of his last 8 appearances.

Southampton’s offensive spark, albeit limited, rests heavily on the shoulders of Adam Armstrong. The striker has been their most active shooter, averaging 1.47 attempts per game. Armstrong has registered 2 or more shots in 4 of his last 7 matches, and with Southampton’s desperate need for points, he is expected to lead their attack once again.

Ismaïla Sarr has quietly emerged as a consistent contributor in Palace’s attack. Despite averaging just 1.50 shots per game, his accuracy stands out, with 0.91 shots on target per match – the 2nd-best figure in the team. Sarr has tested the keeper in each of his last 4 matches, with 3 shots on target in 2 of them. His ability to create chances from the wing makes him a strong candidate for at least 1 shot on target.

Tyler Dibling continues to be a rare creative threat in an otherwise struggling team. His ability to draw fouls – averaging exactly 2 per game – has been a key weapon in an ultimately toothless side. Facing a Palace midfield that has committed 21 fouls in their last 3 games, Dibling’s elusiveness and flair are likely to earn him multiple free kicks.

Flynn Downes epitomises Southampton’s frustration and defensive woes. The league’s most carded player with 7 yellows this season, Downes’ discipline issues have been exacerbated by Southampton’s dismal form.

The defensive midfielder has been booked in 4 of his last 6 games, a clear indicator of his struggle to cope under pressure. Against a dynamic Palace midfield, Downes is a strong candidate to pick up another caution.

Crystal Palace enter this fixture as favourites, with recent performances offering reasons for optimism despite inconsistent home form.

A spirited display against Bournemouth could signal a turning point. Southampton, languishing at the bottom of the table, remain winless in their last 9 matches in all competitions and have secured only 1 victory on the road in the league all season.

A draw against Fulham last weekend was rare respite for the Saints but did little to mask their glaring weaknesses as defeat to West Ham on Boxing Day continued this worrying trend. Palace, with a much stronger squad and home advantage, are well positioned to claim all three points.