Bristol City have tended to be a BTTS-No team quite a lot in recent matches. They seem to either draw a blank themselves or deny the opposition from scoring, five of their last six matches in all competitions have ended up BTTS-No, but all bar one of those matches have still cleared this over 1.5 goal bar.

Derby matches are often lowly rated for goals, however, there is a striking consistency to Derby’s goal record, they have now scored at least once in their last 20 matches in a row in all competitions. Indeed, they have only failed to score in two of 32 matches in all competitions this season, which, for a team lowly rated for goals, is a very good achievement. It also makes backing over 1.5 goals in their matches a relatively easy, and a good value pick.

Patrick Agyemang has moved into the centre-forward slot vacated by Carlton Morris’ injury and has hit the ground running, and with back-up from Ben Brereton and Bobby Clark, the Derby attack is actually well functioning.

Bristol City have been full of goals at home recently, scoring five in the FA Cup against Watford and notching five against Portsmouth in the league, they cantered to 2-0 against Sheffield Wednesday, and also scored twice against Middlesbrough and Leicester.

I really like this angle and price in this exact scenario. Bristol City attract a lot more fouls than they commit. The numbers say that whilst City only average around nine fouls per game, their opponents average almost 12. This should help attract more cards towards Bristol City’s opponents.

Derby themselves are quite high fouls per match, averaging just over 12 fouls per match, creeping up to 12.5 when only considering away matches, and this is translating into cards.

Derby have averaged 2.81 yellow cards per match so far this season when only taking away matches into account. They have gone over this 1.5 card line in six of their last seven away matches, including winning four in their last away match and five in their penultimate one.

The icing on the cake for this match is that the referee, Tom Neild, is a good cards ref. He averages 3.71 yellow cards per match, and over 24 fouls per game as well.

This isn't really so much a Rob Dickie bet as it is an anti-Patrick Agyemang bet. The American forward is expected to take up his usual position in the centre of Derby’s attack, and he will be a focal point for them.

The trouble that defenders have up against him is it he has all of the attributes of a modern EFL Championship forward, big, strong, tall, and quick enough to run the channels and carry the ball dangerously as well. This is the reason why Agyemang gets fouled regularly, but he is a fouls magnet on both sides of the games, he gives as good as he gets.

Agyemang has fouled at least once in all of his away games for Derby so far this season, however, it is also his recent form which interests me, because he has now committed eight fouls in his last three starts.

Dickie is a much bigger price than Atkinson, his central defensive teammate, and I like that price comparison. Dickie and Atkinson actually receive fouls at roughly the same rate, 0.97 v 0.93, so this price difference is key to selecting this bet. Dickie has been fouled in 10 of his last 12 starts as well, so it is already a strong angle with the Agyemang side of things.

Adam Randell is in something of a pit of war in the middle against Derby’s two central midfield options, who are likely to be Lewis Travis and Liam Thompson, with Bobby Clark also dropping in to make it crowded.

Randell is one of Bristol City’s most regularly fouled players. He has been fouled 1.49 times per 90, and he is playing a lot of minutes, so this is a consistent and trusted yardstick. He has been fouled twice or more in four of his last seven starts, but it is this specific scenario which allows me to believe he is value to be fouled at least twice here.

Travis and Thompson are a combative pair, not afraid to leave their mark on the match. Travis is only recently back from injury but has fouled three times in his two starts since, and averages 1.5 fouls per 90 this season, whilst Thompson has committed at least one foul in six of his last seven starts.